survivedc
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Posts posted by survivedc
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8 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:
If these data are self-reported, I would take it with a grain of salt. Baseball went from the national pastime to a distant third, and maybe fourth sport in popularity. And MLB has itself to blame. It took years and years to institute a pitch clock. And now it appears that it will be another decade before they institute electronic balls and strikes.
You must not follow the news.
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Don’t see any posts about it but Mountcastle did about 3 things wrong in the rundown in the first inning. That can’t happen 2 weeks in a row.
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6 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:
Baumeister proves that you are wrong when you say that Elias is ignoring college arms until after the 4th round or later, but he doesn't prove that Elias' strategy is wrong. I mean he was drafted by Elias and then traded to obtain what the team needs in the near term. That's what all prospect for veteran trades do. The O's clearly could have packaged some of their elite hitting prospects to get a good veteran pitcher. I'm sure the Rays would have gladly taken Coby Mayo for Eflin, for example. But the O's didn't have to give up their primo prospects for Eflin and that includes Baumeister.
A couple of recent studies suggest that winning teams need to generate about 47 WAR on average. All general managers have to acquire WAR outside of their organization via free agency, trades, etc. For some teams, maybe even a lot of teams, the majority of their WAR comes from outside the organization. Some teams currently have rosters where very little pitching WAR is coming from players they drafted. Some other teams currently have rosters where very little hitting WAR is coming from players they drafted. There are probably very few teams where most of their pitching AND hitting WAR are coming from within the organization. In the end it does not matter if the pitching or hitting WAR comes from within the organization, it just matters that a healthy chunk of the WAR comes from within the organization (unless you want to have the Mets payroll).
Regarding sustainability, I assume that Elias is going to trade some of the studs before they hit free agency. That's where I expect them to acquire additional high-value prospects and some of those could be high-end pitching prospects. If you can't or won't sign Gunnar to a long-term contract, then you trade him before he's a free agent and recoup a bunch of WAR potential. I also expect that the O's will spend more money and that eventually the O's current competitive window may close and they have to rebuild. Nothing lasts forever, especially for teams not named the Yankees and the Dodgers.
This is spot on, as I see it. Baumeister may be a ML starter, but most likely he is not. Take a guy like that and flip him for a guy that you KNOW is a ML starter.
I think one of your earlier posts acknowledged that the draft isn’t only about maximizing value but also probability of value.
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20 minutes ago, Ripken said:
What's the easiest way to get it?
Some combination of trading and free agency. Letting players develop and give you more information. Assuming we are talking about MLB caliber arms and not just arms at all.
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16 minutes ago, Ripken said:
Generally, I don't care where it comes from either but I certainly care that we have enough of it and the easiest way to get pitching is to draft and develop it. Even if all 13 pitchers in Baltimore came from somewhere else there is still a huge need to have more arms growing in the minors. You're just never going to have enough depth if you can't develop at least some of your own pitching and giving away multiple prospects and huge piles of money every year is not sustainable either.
I'm not trying to nitpick here, but I'm not sure that is the easiest way to get pitching, and my guess is that Elias agrees, which is why they haven't focused on drafting pitching.
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13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
I thought Roberts was actually much better this year then in years past where he was ok, but seemed a little passive.
Roberts might actually be a good backup to Ben when Palmer finally retires. Not a super fan of three man booths, but they were pretty good together overall.
I typically agree, though the Mets booth has 3 and is the best in the game, IMO.
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12 hours ago, Pickles said:
I think it's fair to say that banks was right concerning Holliday's arm preventing him from ever being a "good" defensive SS. And his evaluation was way more accurate and way earlier than the general scouting community's.
I guess we’ll just have to disagree there. We haven’t seen a mature Holliday at short so we can’t say with any degree of certainty that he is right, at the moment.
It’s also worth noting, going back through scouting reports over the last 2 years, that just about everyone mentioned that he had the ability and project ability to play SS, if not the skills. Meaning that nobody thought he was going to be locked in to those positions as a 20 year old major leaguer. We were very spoiled with Manny (and with Gunnar to a lesser extent). While JH probably won’t be platinum glove caliber, he could still be a major league shortstop.
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2 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:
A lot of this goes back to last night we couldn’t put them away and let them back in it. We had chance to go up 6-0 with a 4-0 lead and second and third no outs and didn’t push across a run then Burnes gave up 3 in bottom half. If you take a 6-0 lead there it takes out their running game and if you up like 6-1 or 7-2 in the seventh we could have rested our two big relievers and got Kimbrel in with less pressure. Cano and Dominguez would then have been available and the entire game plan changes.
I think you’re basically right about this, and having to account for this is part of the reason baseball is so great to me. Basketball and Soccer have this wrinkle to an extent, but I just love the long term, day-in/day-out component of baseball. I’m sure Hyde thinks this way, but I remember Buck specifically talking about managing with that in mind and was always impressed by that.
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3 hours ago, Pickles said:
You can be snarky all you want, but banks was saying this over a year ago in the face of almost universal dismissal.
And guess what?
He was right; virtually the entire board was wrong; as well as virtually the entire scouting community.
There is simply no better place to find information about the Baltimore Orioles and this is great proof of that.
I don’t think anyone is “right” about JH yet, on either side.
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2 hours ago, banks703 said:
Again, please stop with the moving around the diamond mess. He’s played a handful of games at third. He’s played primarily second base for nearly a calendar year and was getting game reps there in 2022. It’s not new for him. Stop making that excuse.
Secondly, whoever graded his arm strength at 55 should be fired. There’s a pretty lengthy write up on his lack of arm strength in my post history. He is bottom 5% of infielders in MLB. So while I agree that it isn’t as much of a concern at 2B it’s also not nothing and his arm strength certainly is not 55. He’s a 45 at best.
Lastly, arm strength is actually NOT one of those things that will increase. Can it? Sure but ask Cedric how much he’s been able to add to his throws. Players may sometimes add velo but someone at almost 21 years old and as you mentioned, a lifer in baseball with the amazing support system that he has, with the amount of time in the game, is only going to add so much to his throws. His max velo throw is 83 mph. Half of the infielders in MLB average a higher velo than his max throw. That’s not nothing. Also, his lack of arm strength predates the elbow issues this year. So please don’t suggest that his weak arm is because of the elbow this year.
I’m over harping on the arm strength because again, at 2B it’s less of a concern until needing a double play on a faster runner. Don’t count on them ever turning two with him having to make that throw to first after coming across the bag with a runner barreling down on him and an above average runner at first.. unless it’s tailor-made.
The other issues may improve over time but I’m not deluding myself to believe that with as much as he’s experienced around the highest levels of baseball, that his ability to recognize the shape of a grounder off the bat, the in-between hops, the fluidity of feeding and receiving double play balls, moving to his hand side, his stiff hips, etc etc is just going to get better. It might but I am extremely skeptical because again, as you noted, he’s been around the game of baseball forever and had the best training and coaching available to him.
We can’t mention his amazing support system and ignore it from the other side. He’s had access to the absolute best training and coaching his entire life and he struggles with some of these fundamental things. Do I think he will improve? Yes, I’ve stated as much in every post that I have made criticizing his defense but there is nothing about his defense that suggests that he will be even average, much less above average. If the O’s are comfortable enough with what they get from him then so am I but I think still believe that a move to the outfield may be in his future and it might be best for both him and the club.
All to say, I am still penciling him in at 2B every game going forward until he forces otherwise. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps at the major league level. He hasn’t cost them a game with his defense. He’s not completely butchering it out there. He’s hitting and seems to have carved out a nice routine in his return to Baltimore. Keep running him out there as long as his bat is providing the positive impact that it has so far.
Do you know what Brian Roberts throw velocity was? Are those numbers anywhere?
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10 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:
Agree with all plus I will add this. People act that moving from SS to 2b is like a quarterback moving to linebacker. It is just SOOOOO difficult. It just isn't. It is basically the same position other than a few responsibilities are different. But other than that? You still have to field the ball and make a throw-usually to first base. The throw is even shorter than the one from SS so it should be easier other than the angle you throw at. But cmon, these guys have been playing baseball since they were 4 or 5 years old. It is not rocket surgery.
Watch the Trevor Bauer videos he makes and how smooth and effortless those Mexican infielders play their positions. Granted a lot of Latin and Hispanic players are known for their good D but still. Considering the amount of time that Holliday has played the infield-basically his whole life, there is just no reason he should be making the type of throws that we say yesterday for example. Which every kid does 1000 x a week playing little league baseball or in that back yard.
It is different enough to trip people up, Gunnar being a good example. You’d have thought he’d never been on the dirt before. I agree that it shouldn’t be as big of a change, but that’s also why I think it’s mostly mental for JH.
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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Why? He played 68 games at 2B in the minors this year. Why is he going to magically flip a switch in September? I do think he’ll improve gradually over time, but I’m not expecting huge improvement during the course of this season.
Because I saw him a few times in the minors at SS and he moved fluidly and confidently there. I had not seen him at 2B in the minors but did read a few reports that he seemed capable of handling it. From what I’ve seen of him at 2B in the majors it seems like a confidence thing and I think a month of playing the position up here he will grow sure of himself and call off Mountcastle on a pop up, or take an extra beat to make a good throw. It will be more like turning on a faucet, not flipping a switch, for whatever that’s worth.
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3 hours ago, Say O! said:
Yeah I am super puzzled as to how any minor league scout would have believed he could stick at SS. He looks average at best so far at 2B.
Well he's not playing SS, he's playing 2B. They aren't the same.
That said, while he may never be a gold glover over there, he is going to be fine by September.
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This thread is soft.
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2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:
Yup, might be time to face the facts. This team is average as constructed. They can hit sometimes, but the defense and terrible bullpen erase any edge the hitting has
Give me a break, they aren’t “average.”
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5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Why are you using quotes around calculation? Are you accusing them of just making up numbers?
We do have an idea of how much impact the various counts have on the outcome of an at bat.
There is this for chart for instance, tracking the chance to get on base.
This is awesome, I’ve always wondered about odds per count, but never actually looked.
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17 minutes ago, emmett16 said:
No. He’s on a heater. He will even out, but the good news is the hard hit rate. He’s pounding everything. Historically he hasn’t consistently hit balls hard in the air pull side.
Is this true? I could only find one minor league spray chart and it showed most of his XBH going to right field.
I’d be ok with 500 HR’s, not gonna get greedy with the Jr 600+ club. Maybe put one on the Warehouse in the home run derby in a few years. -
1 hour ago, terpoh said:
And that’s why you don’t pinch hit for Jackson Holliday
This is the point, overall pinch hitting numbers be damned.
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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:
Did you watch Sunday’s game when every button he pushed was gold? No matter what a manager does, hitters gotta hit and pitchers gotta pitch and he only has so many bullets that he can fire.
I’ve seen this argument a couple of times, and while it’s true he did make the right calls on Saturday (and Sunday but only 1 PH), he subbed out Slater, Jimenez and Mayo.
Nobody should be mad at a generic PH decision, but when you take out the two guys that are arguably hitting the best in the lineup it’s a different situation.
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45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
On his 105.7 interview, Elias said that they will keep giving Holliday reps at SS and making sure he can back up Gunnar there. Gunnar has played a lot.
He said that Holliday is a SS. He always has been.
That of course could be a throw away comment. I just wish that he was asked more about the SS defense and the arm (both any improvement, the injury, how it happened, etc…)
Uh, which show was he on? Can’t be JLC right?
Holliday seems to move well at 2B but not confidently. Neither did Gunnar in his very brief stint. I think JH can figure it out, though.
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Just now, Frobby said:
They actually did ask all the questions.
They asked one question, yes, but what about second questions?
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Just now, LookitsPuck said:
Gotta make the postseason first.
But postseason decisions isn’t defensible. Is Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser platoon players or more than that? It’s so bizarre.
I don’t think they are, but it’s more about the guys coming in for them than the guys going out.
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Just some silly managing today. The only logical explanation I can come up with is that he was working on post season decisions, and I would be fine with that if so.
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18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Was he just 50 years too late?
Jackson Holliday 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Some nice double plays from JH the last couple nights. Has shown some nice quickness and athleticism in making them.