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Spy Fox

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Everything posted by Spy Fox

  1. I made that exact mistake a few weeks ago trying to be cute getting Orioles in.
  2. We can hope for at least one Opening Day this decade like Texas just had: celebrate your World Series championship, then start your title defense with a walkoff win.
  3. The game's not over, but Burnes' outing is. And what a debut. Only Trout could touch him. 6 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 11 K.
  4. Thought about making a new thread for this, but decided to bump this one. The O's were the most popular AL East winner, AL pennant winner, and AL World Series winner in the Fangraphs writers poll. They were the only AL team that all 25 voters picked to make the playoffs. Some of the Fangraphs models may hate the O's but it doesn't seem like their human writers do. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-staff-predictions/
  5. What sounded like a mistaken hot mic at the end was a (maybe also mistaken?) roll of the beginning of this video. It definitely ended abruptly... almost seemed like they were supposed to play this video and then do more, but that someone panicked and ended the show. Rubenstein gets to experience the "needs improvement" part of MASN right away!
  6. I think you’ll see occasions that Mateo, Urias, and Westburg are all 3 in the lineup vs a lefty and one of them is DH. I hope they give Cowser some chances vs lefties as well, moving Santander to DH in those games.
  7. If Jackson had an extension, he’d probably be on the club. It may or may not be in Jackson’s best interest or preference to do so. Both those things are true and I’m sure Matt understands that, so I don’t see anything disingenuous there.
  8. Urias trade has been mentioned a few times in this thread. With Kemp's IF/OF flexibility, and the public statements about Gunnar playing SS full-time, I wonder if a Mateo trade is a more likely follow-up here.
  9. I would have thought so. To me Kemp's only advantage is the ability to play the outfield.
  10. Either a precursor to a trade or Tyler Nevin is out after all. NOTHING can stand between Mike Elias and a veteran lefty second baseman!
  11. Not sure, but I know Will Smith (the reliever) has currently earned three straight WS rings with three different teams. Though he didn't actually appear in the Series for Houston in '22.
  12. I believe they would have if they were still around. Hall for sure, and Ortiz probably. But whether it was Ortiz/Hall or not, I don't think we were ever going to reach Opening Day without shipping out a couple guys for a SP.
  13. I think they started this last-Thursday-in-March model a few years back, though it had a couple disruptions with covid and the lockout. I assume mainly to prevent the World Series from extending too late, but without reducing off-days.
  14. 16th ranked rotation with 12.1 WAR projected. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/
  15. 9/9, 71. For me it was Mets GG that inflated the score, though I'll take it because the other names I was considering trying would have been whiffs.
  16. Ouch... that is a rough 10 game opening!
  17. Is the Opening Day clause of the QO already met by the Korea Series?
  18. I'm not getting my hopes up but it would make a lot of sense. If the vote goes through on Wednesday, how long until Rubenstein controls the budget? I'm not expecting the O's to suddenly turn into huge spenders with the new ownership. But this strikes me as the type of deal Elias/Rubenstein could be on the same page about, where Elias/Angelos were not.
  19. If you’re worked up about ESPN anti O’s bias, watch the season preview video up top where we are one of three teams given 30-second overviews as AL favorites. The Yankees get a ~10 second follow-up to the Orioles section and the rest of the AL East isn’t mentioned by name. Though yes, beyond Jeff Passan who is good and one of the most plugged-in guys in the industry, ESPN baseball coverage doesn’t bring much to the table.
  20. That under 3 range is just for the 16-30 ranked pens. They have the top 13 pens at 3+ WAR. Only three at 4+ WAR... if that's an underestimate of high performers I'm guessing it's the same median-outcome reason why the projected standings also cluster around the middle more than the real standings. I agree with you about the O's pen though.
  21. The records given there would have the O's, Jays, Rays, and Rangers finishing in a four-way tie for the three WC spots at 87-75. That would be something.
  22. Orioles, Jays, Yankees, Rays, Sox. I think the Jays are a strong balanced team, similar to the Orioles in that they are above average all throughout the lineup and rotation. Last year they dominated outside the AL East but killed their chances at the division by losing all four AL East season series, including going 3-10 against the O's. I think they'll bounce back a bit there, get some more out of hitters like Vlad and Varsho, and put up a strong season. Like the O's, the bullpen looks like their biggest vulnerability, but like the O's, I think their balance gives them a high floor. The Yankees pitching is a glass house that I think will hold them back from greatness. They drained a lot of their SP depth trading for Soto, so Cole going down is even worse for them than it would have been before. If both of Rodon and Cortes bounce back, they could certainly win this division. But more likely, I think their lack of depth will be exposed. Their offense could be a juggernaut and I like Soto's odds to win his first MVP, as the best player on a team that either wins the third WC or at least stays in it til near the end. It's easy to say the Rays always find a way but I see a down year for them. They've lost so much from last year: Franco, McClanahan, and Glasnow is quite a trio of departures. Their hot start last year was before they lost 3 SPs to elbow surgery, and was driven in part by random Steve Pearce like career years from Luke Raley, Isaac Paredes, and Harold Ramirez. I'd predict their offense will regress some, they'll still have a solid pitching staff, but overall they won't have enough juice to get past the 80 to 85 win range. The Sox are the weakest, but they aren't that bad and I could see them finishing as high as 3rd if things go right for them and go wrong health-wise for a couple teams above them. Their offense will still mash at times, I think Tyler O'Neill is one of the most underrated additions to the division this year and may thrive in Fenway. But their rotation of Pivetta/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck is five guys who all have good stuff, but haven't been able to succeed for long periods. I think all five of them would be no higher than the 4th/5th SP on a team like the Jays or O's. Unless several of those guys post their best seasons yet, I see a third straight season for them of hovering around .500.
  23. Put your predictions here for standings, awards, etc. Here's my standings, playoff teams in bold: AL East: 1 Baltimore, 2 Toronto, 3 New York, 4 Tampa, 5 Boston AL Central: 1 Minnesota, 2 Cleveland, 3 Detroit, 4 Kansas City, 5 Chicago AL West: 1 Houston, 2 Seattle, 3 Texas, 4 Los Angeles, 5 Oakland NL East: 1 Atlanta, 2 Philadelphia, 3 New York, 4 Miami, 5 Washington NL Central: 1 Chicago, 2 Cincinnati, 3 Pittsburgh, 4 St. Louis, 5 Milwaukee NL West: 1 Los Angeles, 2 San Diego, 3 San Francisco, 4 Arizona, 5 Colorado Playoffs start with your wild card series SEA@TOR, NYY@MIN, CIN@PHI, and SDP@CHC.
  24. That could happen, and I think the O's depth gives them the safest 85+ win floor of any team in the division. But I think at least one of our opponents-- Jays/Yankees the two most likely IMO-- will make a serious run for the division, even if some stuff goes sideways for them. Last year we only finished 2 games ahead of the Rays even after they lost 3/5 of their rotation to elbow surgery.
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