OrioleMagic79

I actually think Stowers with 7 spring HRs and his history coming out of college and making the majors might be just enough for someone to say "this guy struggled a bit when he came up, but he's showing that he is still the prospect we thought he was coming out of college" ... meaning to say, he actually might be a "sell high" right now. Usually spring numbers are taken with a grain of salt, but given that the AAAA status is bookended by prospect hype/rise to MLB and this "breakout spring" I think that maybe it is time to sell right now before he has a chance to show that AAAA status again. Not to mention he is 26, so even if he hits well in AAA for a couple of months, he is on the verge of being an older prospect. 27 is supposed to be a player's prime/peak year, so if he is still in the minors this year, I think it hurts more than it helps. I also think it is time to consider that Urias, O'Hearn, and Mateo are potential trade options right now ... with Mateo being the one I would maybe want to hold onto the most. O'Hearn could be the ultimate "sell high" guy right now, and Urias hitting nearly .300 in camp with a history of GG defense could be just what some borderline contender thinks they need on their bench this year. Mateo's speed and utility in CF and at SS are the hardest for me to part with at this point among these four guys. I think the game is shifting back to aggressive base running/stolen bases/and maybe even some teams playing "small ball" ... so I would want to keep Mateo for those reasons if possible. I'm no professional GM and don't claim to be, but if someone cared to know what I think, I would suggest seeing what we can do with trading any (or a combination) of Urias, O'Hearn, and Stowers to get either a middle of the to back end of the rotation candidate, bullpen help, or maybe more importantly, a high potential but no guarantee type of pitching prospect or two (maybe in the Seth Johnson mold, where they are coming off of injury or something) ... or just younger, lower level prospects to replenish some of the talent that is moving up through the system. The only thing I will add is that if some GM out there would send us a good SP for any/all of these three plus someone like maybe Mountcastle, that might be worth serious consideration. That would free things up quite a bit for the younger guys to come up AND maybe extend Santander to be a veteran presence/leader while this team hits its peak. Kjerstad, Mayo, and Santander could easily fill the 1B/DH/RF role, with Adley, and eventually Basallo, also sharing in the DH/1B role at times. I would feel VERY confident in an OF mix over the coming years of Hays, Mullins, Mateo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Bradfield, and possibly Westburg. Moving Urias, O'Hearn, Stowers, Mountcastle makes enough room for a roster that could include ALL of these young guys: Mayo, Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby, Basallo, Westburg, Bradfield between this year and the next few years ... all without hurting our veteran leadership presence from Hays, Mullins, and Santander ... and could even allow for us to extend one, two, or all three of them through their remaining productive years. I think those guys are more of the heartbeat of this successful run that we are on (really just getting started on) right now, and it would be a boost of morale to the team to see us extend at least a couple of them. I want these young guys to experience both opportunities when they are ready to come up, while seeing the organization keeping guys that are leaders to maintain chemistry and reward their efforts ... that will make (at least some of) the young guys at least consider signing extensions because (at least some of them) will not want to leave this "family" Just my two (or maybe more like eleven) cents ... excited about this season, Go O's!!!

Ah, ok. Bummer.

I'm in Ohio, anyone know if MASN will be on an upgrade tier for people out of market? I would love to be able to fully absorb into "Maryland mode" by watching the pre and post game shows on MASN" ... even if they are not the best quality. (Can you tell I miss Maryland?)

In my dreams Rubenstein said "No corporate name, deal is off now that I am (about to be) in charge" ... don't correct me, I've got my fingers in my ears and I'm stomping and humming

I like this bird (the "watch out for batted balls" (WOFBB) cartoon bird ... I would like to see it on a hat for an alternate jersey

Great post, thanks Frobby! Looking forward to following this as the O's move up the list!

I could be wrong, but I thought the only way someone not on the active roster could be eligible is if they are replacing an injured player once it turns to September. Not sure, though

Honestly, we are still ahead of schedule, which is difficult to remember and to be patient. But if you abandon the plan just because you are ahead of schedule, then you run a high level of risk toward setting things back significantly. If there are not any TOR starters with at least a year or two left on their contract, then you don't use your prospects to trade for talent that really won't help you win a WS. The issue with us as fans is that we will be impatient and push for trade deadline acquisitions of SPs, then when a true TOR isn't available (or is only offered at a completely unreasonable price), we will get upset about the 3 or 4 starter that the O's acquire. If we don't acquire a SP at all, we will complain that Elias (or more likely ownership) isn't trying to win and they are just happy wish status quo. Remember when we were all ticked off that we didn't get Rodon, Verlander, DeGrom, Quintana, or Wacha? Outside of Wacha, the other signings would have been a disaster. Wacha also hadn't proven that 2022 wasn't just a fluke, given his performance in the years previous to 2022 included ERAs above 5 and 6. I don't know about you, but even if we had signed a big SP and even if he would have performed up to whatever massive contract he would have required to sign in Baltimore, I still wouldn't have guessed that it would have us in the place we are in right now, with the third best record in all of baseball. I think we all need to get used to the fact that traditional wisdom is not what is being used here, and so far, that has been VERY successful. I am not sure that it doesn't mean we don't need an ACE to win a WS, because I still think we do ... however, I do trust that Elias knows what he's doing. Even when it comes to starting pitching. Our biggest SP prospects looked better as a projection this past offseason, so the drafting philosophy/approach may have been different than it will be next month. Now that we have more data to evaluate on those guys and it shows more signs of potentially not panning out as planned, so it may mean Elias goes and gets a pitcher or two in the early rounds of this draft. The more I watch things play out, the more I am OK with either approach at this year's trade deadline. Either stay the path and don't sell off our prospects for mediocre options that will not result in a WS appearance/title, or try to go for it a bit and see if you can grab a Shane Bieber type guy with the prospects you have been keeping in AAA to keep their value higher (non-40 man, or avoiding less than impressive stats at the MLB level). Either way, this is a really fun and exciting time to be an Orioles fan. When Elias signed on, I was hearing predictions of playoff contention by 2024 or 2025, and then taking the leap to possibly being ready to play at a level that has a real shot to win a WS by 2027. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, we are WAY ahead of that timeline. Which means we don't need to panic and break up our current progress/minor league system to get desperate about trying to win it all this year. Now, if we can be sellers at the deadline like we were last year and sell guys that we don't really need in order to fleece the Twins or another organization, then sign me up. That was amazing. We didn't know it at the time, but something tells me that Elias and company didn't just get lucky on that one.

I wish MLB would allow trading draft picks ... sigh

Yeah, there's a reason why I ventured back here. It is almost as bad as the "fans" in Star Wars groups ... ugh, can't people just enjoy things anymore instead of picking it apart? Usually the ones that have the most to say/complain about are the ones who know the least.

Yes, VERY true. That's why I felt it was necessary to point out

Smart moves are important. We all can see how long it took to build up an elite farm system. Getting desperate and trading too much for too little can be a setback. Look at what the Dodgers gave up for Machado. That wasn't bad luck on our part, that organization fleeces people all the time. They know when a guy isn't going to live up to the hype before outsiders can see it, and then they do an incredible job selling trade partners on the potential of those guys. We need a true #1 starter, which often means that you get a guy with a few months left, maybe a year and a few months, on his contract. When you are more than just an ace from being a serious WS contender (which no matter what happens this year, that is the case for this team even if the Angels in the Outfield show up), you can't give up Gunnar, Cowser, and Povich for 1 year+ on a stud, or maybe even more likely, a pretty good starter that is more likely a #2 or #3 starter on a true contender. You have to accept that making the playoffs is more often than not just a step in the process. You can't treat every playoff appearance as an "all-in" endeavor to win a WS, or you will end up betting the majority of your money on a very slim chance and suffering a major setback in the long-term plan. In my opinion, I hope we make the playoffs this year and I also hope we are not desperate at the deadline to do "whatever it takes" to land an ace for the playoffs this year because I believe we are more than an ace away from having a real shot at winning a WS. Look at Kansas City, they won a WS and then the bottom fell out from underneath that team. Who here wouldn't rather be like the Astros than KC? You won't win every year, nobody does, but you want to operate your franchise in a way that makes it possible to be a serious contender year after year ... if you do things right, that's very possible. If you panic and get fleeced in trades because you are desperate to treat a second wild card team like it's "gotta be NOW!" then you will end up like Kansas City. So far, Elias has proven he knows EXACTLY what he's doing, but what he's doing required patience while he was rebuilding the farm, and despite what most fans want to hear, it ALSO requires patience building up a contender at the ML level. We will get there, trust the process.

Well, we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. We are too far apart. I see it as John saying something (about opening the books) and being told "hey, that might not be a good idea" by someone who knows better, or he maybe reconsidered when fans decided he was his father and refused to give him a chance. Also, to me, "lift off" was exactly what Elias meant and fans heard what they wanted to hear. "Lift off" means the beginning of something exciting, it doesn't mean "crescendo" or the "peak" splash/move that everyone wanted to believe he meant. Building the farm system was preparing for launch, "lift off" means "here we go toward something new/big" ... we haven't even broken the Earth's atmosphere (achieved step 2) or passed the Moon (step 3), and we certainly haven't touched down on Mars (winning a World Series) or established civilization on Mars (maintaining a consistent contender for a WS title). But we have passed the preparation stages that were agonizing to some people at times, particularly those who don't understand what Elias is doing and why "it's taking so long." Those were the same people who asked "how long does a rebuild take? He's been on the job for 7 months and look, this team sucks!"

Yes, this. I didn't mean to imply every Orioles fan, and as I mentioned above, I also wasn't posting or reading OH at all this offseason. I am back after a long hiatus, but it feels nice to be back.

Maybe not here in OH, but fans in every Orioles FB group were losing their minds over it. Not every fan, but a LOT of fans were upset. Particularly with Gibson being signed instead. I haven't been on the boards here in quite some time, so maybe everyone here was OK with it.

Remember how mad people got when we let him walk? Elias and the gang know what they are doing, and I wish we as a fan base could remember that sometimes.

That should be the mentality, but if we don't, let's also not overreact. Even if we go 1/3, as long as we play well and pitch well to take some momentum forward into May, that will be a good sign for me. I think this team will continue to compete, even against the good teams. But baseball is still baseball, so we will go 1/3 against a few teams we shouldn't, and we will probably take 2 or 3/3 from some teams we aren't expected to.

I actually think John really wants things to change and is working toward that. I understand that his last name makes people doubt that, but so far people need to remember what all he has done that has led to us being where we are with a positive outlook for the foreseeable future. The guy funded an international program (something his dad didn't want to pay for), he fought to have his brother essentially have no say in the team (a guy that seems much more like dad), and he hired Elias who has gotten just about everything he has asked for. I think Elias believes in his model, and part of that model means waiting to build things up and then spend wisely with long-term success in mind vs. reactionary and not well thought-out spending to appease fans and increase the number of butts in seats. He understands that signing guys like Davis, Trumbo, Miguel Tejada, etc. when you don't have a foundation and well-stocked farm system behind it is wasteful and short-sighted. I believe the plan is to, in fact, sign a long-term lease to stay in Baltimore at OPACY, make plans to upgrade/improve the stadium, spend a little time evaluating which of these young stars is going to be the right guy to sign and lock up (so far, seems Adley would be a fit here) and which are the ones that will be higher risk that might be worth trading for important pieces at the deadlines and in the off-seasons while everyone still sees them as potential superstars (maybe that's Gunnar?). I think waiting just a little bit to see who succeeds and who struggles before we jump the gun and sign someone is really smart. Last fall, Gunnar would have seemed like a no-brainer. Maybe he still is, but if you had to pick one right now, I think most of us would agree that Adley is that guy. Hopefully both of them are, but they are both under control for quite some time. Let's not let the Machado situation overshadow what has changed since then. Now there is one man in charge in ownership (John) and one man in charge in the front office's day to day dealings (Elias). Back when Machado was our young star, we had a power struggle between the Angelos brothers (one who only cares about money and might move the team, and one who baseball backed as the guy who is going to do this in a way that is best for baseball and for Baltimore - or at least much more likely). Right now, and I understand why, nobody trusts a darn thing that John Angelos says when he says the team will be in Baltimore forever and when he says winning matters and they plan to do the right things, but we have had such a poor experience over several decades with his family, so our patience is understandably thin and our trust level is pretty low. If you look closely at what John has been doing, and at how he isn't making rash decisions and spending unwisely, it actually looks like he is really telling the truth and wants to build a perennial winner vs. a bottom dweller or a short-term winner. That's what has me so excited. If he lets Elias get away or fires him, that will dramatically change my optimism into some concerned pessimism in short order. But so far, so good with John (and Scott). Let's enjoy this, particularly because this team is playing better than the stage that we are supposed to be at right now. If we were simply on schedule, there would be even more impatience and angst toward Angelos and Elias. Luckily for those two, the team is doing well. If I had to guess, I think the entire organization sees what is being built here and it's exciting and contagious, which is leading to the premature success and fun that you see happening in the dugout and throughout the entire farm system.

Just sent you an email, thanks Roy

I just don't understand why people think there is a COI or hypocrisy here. I think that is just a major stretch, at least for me. Anyone who doesn't have an direct impact on the outcome of the game is free to do what they want. The broadcast has nothing to do with the outcome, the fans (in person or watching on TV) do not impact the outcome of the game. It's the people playing the game and making decisions about individual plays, substitutions, pitching match-ups, creating line-ups, and managing rosters/coaching staffs/or other organizational personnel that could have a short-term or a long-term impact on the outcomes of plays/games/seasons. I could even see locker room, catering, transportation personnel being banned from it, so that you don't have someone serving spoiled food, washing lucky socks, or getting lost on the way to a game or taking too long to get the team back to the hotel on the road. But anyone that doesn't have access to players or personnel that could somehow impact the integrity of the games/outcomes should be free to do whatever they want to do as long as they conduct their behavior within state gambling laws/regulations. Pete is a no brainer for permanent exclusion from the HOF, I'm not even sure what the debate is there. It was a clearly outlined/defined rule, and when he broke the rule, he knew he was breaking the rule. The consequences were also well known at the time. Thanks to the Black Sox scandal back in 1919, this was all well defined at it was made clear ad nauseum to all players/coaches that it was not allowed and that severe consequences would follow previous precedent. I'm so tired of hearing this tired story (I realize that you weren't arguing this part, Roy) of how Pete didn't get a fair shake and that he's "served his time," but my parents always told me "don't do the crime if you can't serve the time." Not to mention, it is painfully clear that he has zero remorse, particularly when he feigns it to get public support to swell again so he can reinvigorate interest in paying for him to make public appearances and sign autographs. Just this past offseason he sent a letter to the commissioner (publicly to ensure that it would make the rounds all over social media) and that helped him land an endorsement to "place the first officially legal sports bet in the State of Ohio at the stroke of midnight on New Year's Eve." This guy doesn't deserve anyone's sympathy for any reason, and that's not even scratching the surface on unrelated immoral and illegal transgressions that people seem to overlook when they praise and plead for this guy. What a scumbag.

Can someone help me understand why Holliday is still getting at bats if he was sent to minor league camp last week?

Agreed. but I'd guess more like 80% are on mistake pitches. Though at the MLB level, a mistake pitch is defined much differently than at lower levels because the big league hitters are so good.

Old Bay Park at Camden Yards

Oh really? Despite him looking super skinny (compared to his 1998 self) in a similar way that Bonds did during the same time period (though McGwire was bigger than Bonds, I just mean in comparison from their 1987 self to their 1998 self), and despite the fact that Andro wasn't introduced into the United States market until 1996 ... I am sure that you are correct ... Mark McGwire probably was using it in 1987 when nobody else even knew about it and it didn't even exist as a commercial product yet ...

I think that is ridiculous ... he hit 49 HRs as a rookie ... started taking steroids because he couldn't stay healthy for many years, so he got frustrated and took stuff to help him heal and keep him on the field (with the side benefit of becoming massive and getting help hitting even more HRs than he would have otherwise) ... but to say he would have been lucky to have a career in the majors without steroids is misinformed ...