Brooks The Great
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Posts posted by Brooks The Great
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27 minutes ago, Hallas said:
Why don't you think so? He's fast (29 fps sprint speed, 91st percentile in the majors) and if this is his true talent level going forward his .373 OPS would be the best on the team by a country mile if he qualified. Do you want him 2 or 4 because he's got too much power?
Yes. Gunnar is already one of our best run producers, and he and Adley are the two hitters you want up with multiple men on base. Putting Gunnar in the leadoff spot and hitting after scrubs like Mateo, Hays, and occasionally Chirinos, is minimizing run production. I simply think we'll generate more runs against RHP with Mullins leading off, Adley 2nd, and Gunnar 3rd than any combination with Gunnar leading off.
Once Colton Cowser in in the lineup, he's our best leadoff hitter. Cowser/Adley/Gunnar sequence is going to eat starting pitchers alive.
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On 9/20/2022 at 11:42 PM, jdwilde1 said:
I agree with everything you say here except the part about Urias not being good enough to be a starter on a great team. Urias has a career average of 4.1 WAR and 2.2 WAA per 162 games. That's not just okay, its really good. If he continues with that type of production, he absolutely is plenty good enough to start on a great team. Also, even though his offensive production is down this year, he's still consistently hitting the ball really hard (84th percentile in Hard Hit%). I just do not see how Urias is the guy holding back the O's from getting to the next level. With that said, Vavra, Stowers, and Gunnar should be playing every day from here on out, regardless of who is on the mound.
And I am not saying Urias is a must keep, or that a super utility isn't a reasonable roll for the guy, but over the last two seasons he has demonstrated an ability to play an adequate second base and short stop, and a well above average third base. I think the real question is not whether Urias is good enough to be a starter on a great team; but rather, are the O's better off with Gunnar at third or short stop. If Gunnar is at third, Urias loses a lot of his value because he's really an exceptional defensive third baseman, while only an average second baseman, and a below average (albeit acceptable) short stop. If Gunnar is at short stop, then Urias is plenty good enough to be the starting third baseman.
For me it's pretty simple (although I very well could be wrong). Starting next season, Joey Ortiz is going to be a viable starting SS option, and he's going to be better than Jorge Mateo in terms of overall value (because Ortiz is a premium glove, and it won't be hard for Ortiz to be a better hitter than Mateo, because Mateo is an awful hitter). Our best starting lineup on both sides of the ball is going to have Gunnar at 3B and Ortiz at SS.
At 2B, I believe both Westburg and Norby will be superior options to Urias. Urias isn't good enough to be blocking prospects like either of them. So the upcoming tidal wave of middle infield talent leaves Urias as a super utility player, which is what I think Urias' best role for the Orioles is anyway. If Urias is your super utility player off the bench (and starting regularly only in case of an injury to one of the young IFs), you're a playoff team. If Urias is your starting 2B, 3B, or SS, you're most likely a .500ish team or worse.
I like Urias, but I think he's really overrated by a lot of people on this board. We have several players coming up over the next couple years who will very likely be more productive/talented/valuable.
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Gunnar's not a leadoff hitter, even though I don't mind him batting leadoff against lefties given our lack of good options. Even in the modern analytics era, Gunnar's a 2, 3, or 4 hitter.
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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
While it isn't a big deal third isn't the spot you want Gunnar.
It's much better than where Hyde had him slotted before the past two games (5th, 6th).
I just want Adley and Gunnar hitting back-to-back. Pitchers are going to hate pitching to them consecutively, and I love it.
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It's really a shame what Hyde and Elias did to Vavra and Stowers over the past month or so. Terrible management.
Both players work counts much better than Odor (who's thankfully, finally done as a regular player based on Hyde's most recent comments) and Hays, and both players have higher upsides than Odor and Hays.
It sounds like Vavra will be the regular 2B moving forward. The right move is to make Stowers an everyday player and platoon Hays, but I doubt Hyde will do that because he favors vets and isn't a smart manager when it comes to optimizing lineups.
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On 9/18/2022 at 6:01 PM, Brooks The Great said:
Would like to see a lineup of:
Mullins CF
Adley C
Gunnar 3B
Santander DH
Mountcastle 1B
Vavra LF
Urias 2B
Stowers RF
Mateo SS
Against righties moving forward. Maybe replace Urias with Hays and move Vavra to 2B if better OF defense is what the matchup calls for.Lineup tonight is getting closer to what I consider optimal. Gunnar shouldn't move out of the 3rd spot against righties the rest of the way. Obviously Chirinos - one of the worst hitters in MLB - spelling Adley and Santander getting a day off changes the lineup a bit, but hopefully the next game with Adley at C will be closer to the lineup I want to see.
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Give me Westburg at 2B and Ortiz at SS next year. They'd be an upgrade offensively (I believe a big upgrade) over Odor, Mateo, and Urias, with little to no dropoff on defense.
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Time to let Vavra and Stowers play every day. Time to be completely done with Odor, and I think Vavra should play over Urias the rest of the way. Urias is a super utility player. He's not good enough to be a starter on a great team.
Frustrating that Elias and Hyde are so slow to move away from terrible or average veterans (or terrible younger players like Nevin).
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6 minutes ago, Gurgi said:
I dont see it. I think there is a better chance Mateo gets traded for lowly prospects and move on. Gunnar goes to SS, Westburg to Third and perhaps Ortiz gets Second if he looks solid in spring training.
Only can see this trade if it is in some package trying to get a top of the rotation pitcher. Then all bets are off I guess.
2B Westburg
SS Ortiz
3B Gunnar
Will be the O's best defensive alignment if Ortiz plays for the major league team next season. It doesn't make sense to put a premium SS glove at 2B. We'd have 2 gold glove caliber defenders on the left side with Westburg at 2B, but only 1 gold glove caliber defender on the left side with the alignment you mentioned. -
No. Santander and Adley can backup 1B next season. Would rather spend more money on even bigger bat than Trey, if anything.
I also think Jordan Westburg could wind up being a better overall hitter than Mountcastle, and JW can move around the infield. Westburg could potentially play some 1B, or spell Gunnar at 3B and move Gunnar to 1B occasionally.
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Mike Elias - Please call Westburg up to the Orioles. Tomorrow.
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Would like to see a lineup of:
Mullins CF
Adley C
Gunnar 3B
Santander DH
Mountcastle 1B
Vavra LF
Urias 2B
Stowers RF
Mateo SS
Against righties moving forward. Maybe replace Urias with Hays and move Vavra to 2B if better OF defense is what the matchup calls for.
I'd also call up Jordan Westburg and replace Urias with him at 2B, I think the offense would have been much better over the past few weeks with Westburg than one of the worst regular players in baseball (Odor) getting starts. I think going all-in for a Wild Card is more important than a 40-man spot. But I don't think Elias will make the right move and bring up Westburg. -
It's criminal that Odor continues to start. Benching Gunnar tonight in order to play Odor is pure incompetence. Makes both our offense and defense worse.
Elias has managed the roster poorly for the stretch run. Gunnar should have been promoted earlier (3-7 games sooner), and Westburg should have been promoted by now, pushing Odor to the bench or the waiver wire. Stowers should also have gotten much more regular at bats instead of wasting away on the bench - Aguilar has gotten playing time he hasn't deserved, and Hays should have been platooned against righties ever since Stowers was promoted.
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57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
This could be 3 months consecutive with an OPS over 1.000. His plate discipline numbers at AAA are very solid. It’s amazing there isn’t more excitement for what he’s doing and anticipation for what he offers the 2023 Orioles. Rutschman didn’t do this. Henderson didn’t do this. Ortiz last 2 1/2 months are off the charts and in addition he’s reportedly a premium defensive middle IF. This is his first full season in the minors. How can so few posters be excited about this guy?
I honestly think he could step into the Orioles starting lineup at SS right now and be better than Jorge Mateo. Hoping Elias trades Mateo this offseason and gives Ortiz and Westburg opportunities to make the team out of spring training.
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I think there's a good chance that Joey Ortiz is better than Mateo as soon as next season. Good problem to have.
I think Elias would be smart to look into a deal for Mateo this offseason. Plenty of teams will be interested in a relatively inexpensive gold glove-caliber SS with premium speed.
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They need to keep Watkins on regular rest/work schedule and have him ready in case one of the other SPs gets hurt. With Wells working his way back into the rotation, Watkins is the team's 6th best starter (7th if/when GrayRod makes his debut). So the demotion makes complete sense.
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Watkins has, by far, the worst stuff of the 3. I also think he's been the luckiest to generate the numbers he has. For me, Bradish has a higher ceiling than that group of 3, although I think Voth might turn out to be the most consistent of the bunch.
If/when Wells comes back, Watkins is the guy who should be bumped. Maybe go to a 6-man rotation for a week or two if GrayRod can pitch for the O's and make a start or two.
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What does this mean for their playoff eligibility? I'm so confused as to why Gunnar wasn't called up sooner. And why just the taxi squad now.
Moderator update: Gunnar was added to the 26-man officially for tonight's game making him eligible for the playoffs.
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8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
If Wells and Grayson are not the roster on Aug 31 for injury reasons, can they still be playoff eligible?
Yes.
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4 hours ago, interloper said:
Actually, I think Gunnar could still be eligible after Sept 1 by taking Means' or Ellis' 60-day IL roster spot.
If that's true, then I don't expect any call ups until after rosters expand.
Is this accurate? So Gunnar could be added to the playoff roster - even if he's called up on September 1st or later - by replacing Means or Ellis specifically?
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I'm really surprised he hasn't been called up yet, and I'll be extremely disappointed if they bring him up after the deadline for playoff roster eligibility. He fills an urgent need for the team, and I think he'd be an upgrade over both Odor and Urias both offensively and defensively.
Not only does Gunnar make the team better, but he fills a need immediately in a pivotal series against the Guardians, who have great starting pitchers.
Hoping we hear an announcement in the next hour or two, or tomorrow. If not, it'll be one of the most disappointing decisions in my book since Buck went with Ubaldo against Toronto in the 2016 playoffs.
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Need Gunnar up.
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3 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:
0-4 now when going for 7 above .500, which means that they are 6-7 over their last 13. Not horrible, but not good enough for a pennant race.
I love the job Elias has done, but not calling up Henderson by now to improve the lineup (and the defense) is a mistake on Elias' part. It makes no sense to wait any longer if the primary objective is to make the playoffs, which is what the objective needs to be.
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12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
I believe that he would still be playoff eligible as long as he is added to the 40 man roster by the end of August 31st. If that is correct, they could add him on the 31st and officially call him up to the big league roster on September 1st when rosters expand.
Correct, I just meant that he wouldn't be playoff-eligible if added to the 40-man after August 31st.
Why is Aguilar on this team?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Funny how people blame players for their intangibles or attitude when the team is losing, and they credit others (like Odor) for intangibles and attitude when the team wins. The bottom line is that talent and performance are the most important factors when considering a player's impact. A player being a "winner" or a good clubhouse guy is mostly noise.
That's why I hated all the credit Odor was given when he was starting most of the season. He was just lucky he played with a team surrounded by players much better than him. He's a terrible player overall, and he got way too much playing time on this team.
I know this thread is about Aguilar, but how Hyde and Elias have given unnecessary playing time to mediocre veterans when we have superior younger options already on the roster (Vavra, Stowers) - AND those younger options could benefit from the playing time for the future - really irks me.