Scalious

Adley/Mounty/Santanader are our big 3 lefty mashers. Hays hits them for power, but has mediocre OBP skills. So he shouldn't be any higher than 5th. Despite Gunnar's majors struggles in his first full season. His OBP was only 20 points less then Hays and the arrow can only point up for him. Pitchers don't go deep anymore. So don't push your best overall hitters so far down the LU. Gunnar will draw a ton of walks vs all handed hitters and can only keep improving vs southpaws. The LU they had against Ragans was about it should be. Westburg and Hays can swap depending on who's hotter.

The Orioles don't spend any draft capital on pitchers. Carter Baulmer (Pick 133 with 1.5M signing Bonus) was the biggest one. MeLean was the first top 100 pick spent, but failed to sign. Either they were so arrogant they they could develop starting pitching from scratch? (The Rays and Guardians will spend draft capital on pitchers and they have a proven system) or the plan has always been solid young core of hitters and trading/fa signing for pitching.

Guys who pull less fly-balls then average tend to underachieve their statcast numbers, while guys who pull more fly-balls then average tend to overachieve their stat cast numbers. You want your powers hitters to pull anything with decent hangtime. It's the zero to small hangtimes balls you are looking towards an all fields approach. Saying your slow footed power hitter with a healthy launch angle is too pull happy is the opposite what you want. His main problem is he's so aggressive that he doesn't select for ideal pitches to hit as often as other hitters. In part because he's so talented that he can make decent contact off pitches other hitters would whiff/weak contact against. So he doesn't have any incentive to change. There is this gap between decent contact and extra base/out of the park power he is losing out on. Thus undermining his potetional in both ISO and OBP. Bring his pull rates back to 2021 should bring him back to 30+ HRs with maybe .260-.270 BA this time around.

"I don't want to become the Rays" Is just a re-wording of "I don't want a team refuses to sell an ounce of their future for stacking odds when we are in prime position" Which I kind agree with, the Rays seem to always been over-loaded with 40 man roster decisions. Which in the abstract is a great problem. They could stand to be more aggressive trading their non elite prospects. Since a lot of these guys end up being exposed to rule 5. There is lost opportunity cost there.

One of the main reasons you lock them up young is getting a controlled and discounted salary in Arb years. Which they did with Tatis. That surplus value is why pay so much on the back end. That contract is not designed to bring surplus value when tatis in his 30's. It's getting him less then market value in his entire prime. From which they have greater financial flexibility to build a championship roster with him. Not doing that deal means he's more expensive this and the next 2 years. Then leaves in the middle of his prime. A player your odds of getting again from your farm system are pretty slim. That contract is still a W from a cost/benefit standpoint.

Dunno why my mind is mixing Paul Fry and Armstrong on the brain. Mea Cupla.

Correct

He has a bad ERA/xFIP if you A.) Control for his career B.) Control since becoming an Oriole C.) Control for since 2020. Only reason he will get patience is because he's a lefty that flashed some skills.

As i've touched in the Hays/Mullins thread. If you believe Santander can sustain success, might as well just wait 2 years to trade him. The caliber prospect you get now vs the 2023 wont be much different unless he flops. Sounds like Koch is worried he is a flash in the pan or they are more obessed with saving money over talent returns. You want him to build more track record if he's going to keep being good. If Mancini and Santander both mash this year. Teams will want Santander first, but it's more profitable to trade Mancini because you also trade Santander down the road. Where Mancini's window for value is closing fast. Unless the Santander offer is getting you that can't miss prospect and I highly doubt they want to pay that for a corner bat without major pedigree.

Cost/benefit deters re-builders from trading young hitters. Market demand for position players is tighter because each contender has different needs. If you have a hitter good enough to become universally coveted by contenders. You should probably just keep him and build around him unless he's close to FA. You rarely see teams pay for years of control in a linear fashion. 2 years of control seems to be the sweet spot to trade for legit players. While, anywhere in pre-arb for types you never expect to amount to a ton long term. If you don't think Hays or Mullins will amount to much. Sure, trade them while they are cheap and get a lotto with more upside down the road. If you think they will sustain some success. Rather they just keep unless we get a massive over-pay. Now with pitchers this all different. You can gain profit from flipping good pitchers at any point in their years of control. This what the Rays have been doing for awhile.

Baseball is a first and foremost an entertainment industry. The Orioles club get major benefits by being apart of MLB. They have obligations to the MLB as a brand and right now they are doing harm by tanking to such a level. This idea the Orioles only have to serve themselves is false when they apart of the MLB. MLB gives it teams high levels of autonomy to operate already and do their business, but the way the Orioles are doing this are so optically bad to the idea of competitiveness that exec's feel compelled to comment to dismiss them. Now, functionally, this is totally a don't player hate the game situation. The MLB created and fostered a system that highly incentivizes what the Orioles are doing. So if they really cared, they would change the system. This comment was purely for optics and PR to rely to the people who are unhappy about tankers/re-builders harming the intergry of the sport. Which is entirely true, but this has been going on for years and his words are hollow.

In March? Uh, no that was a very real possibility by then. The information about how fast it can spread and the length in what it would take to get a viable vaccine were known. If either party is suffering because they thought otherwise when agreeing to the deal. They have nothing but their own ignorance to blame. We didn't have the information about a need for mask, indoor vs outdoor transmission at the time, but those factors shouldn't have made a season with fans less viable. if anything, more viable.

No, but the salary cap makes things very wonky in the NBA and NHL. While the NFLs system really screws over the players. The only way I see the MLBPA giving into a salary cap is if they cut the years of control right in half. Which would basically change strategy away from developing home grown talent.

Saving 1 roster slot when you are near the top the board in rule 5. See what they got then cut your loses if it doesn't work. Totally get it. Why have we been using 2 roster slots though? Using that roster slot for wavier claims is probably smarter, honestly.

Lets blind you all with numbers and colors! Year: Inning Usage ERA (xFIP) 2016: 6th/7th inning guy 3.13 (3.78) 2017: 6th/7th/8th inning guy 2.75 (3.85) 2018: 7th/8th inning guy 3.99 (4.11) 2019: 8th/9th inning guy 4.57 (3.62) Usage numbers Games with zero days rest: 8 - 13 - 10 - 9 Games in save/hold/tie: situation: 22 - 29 - 30 -39 Fastball usage: 64 - 72 - 77 - 70 Slider usage: 30 - 20 - 14 -16 Change usage: 6 - 8 - 9 - 14 wOBA Against Splits LHH: .437 - .274 - .294 - .375 RHH: .233 - .268 - .258 - .255 % LHH Faced: 31 - 36 - 39 - 40 Statcast Barrels/PA against: 3.4 - 6.6 - 3.9 - 11.0 Exit Velo: 84.7 - 86.7 - 85.2 - 88.6