TommyPickles

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

Is there really a "defensive corner outfielder" out there that's much better than Ryan Mckenna and his .794 OPS against LHP. Seems like we have plenty of OF options already...

Who do you think will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier? In 2022 it was Mateo (.646) over Frazier (.612). Both were really bad hitters last year. That’s why I’m confused when I see people saying Urias will be a utility guy. He, Gunnar, and Mountcastle should be out there pretty much every day.

For what it is worth, Fangraphs projects Kremer to lead the O's rotation in IP, WAR, and ERA in 2023. I think in a perfect world our rotation at the end of July would look like this: 1. Grayson- Hits the ground running. Top 3 in ROY voting. 2. Means- He bounces right back from Tommy Johns. His change up is unaffected and still nasty. He becomes the #2 starter on a playoff team he was always meant to be. 3. Kremer- I think he'll be our opening day starter. And I think this is the season he settles in as a real solid #3 type guy. 4. Bradish- We saw flashes of it last season. This kid can ball! 5. Irvin- Hear me out! I think Irvin profiles as an ok #4 type and an above-average #5 starter. I think the new wall at Camden Yards will suit him. It will be nice to have two lefties in the rotation and if he can settle in and have a season like last year, that would be huge for us. We have him for four years and he's making around the minimum. I'd be much more excited to see him do well than Gibson, who is older, has less upside, and is only here for a year. And then I think you stretch Hall out in the bullpen and he's the 6th man.

I'd rather watch Urias over Frazier or Mateo, personally. It'll be interesting seeing how they shuffle the infield, especially since Urias has pretty consistent reverse splits throughout his career. Urias- Career .776 OPS aginst RHP, .701 OPS against LHP Frazier- Career .749 OPS aginst RHP, .660 OPS against LHP Mateo- Career .656 OPS aginst RHP, .624 OPS against LHP

Personally, I'm fine with rolling with the in-house OF options. I want to see more Bradish. I don't want to see Cowser blocked. I still believe in Hays and Mullins (both under team control till 2026). Over the past two seasons, Mullins has been worth 9.5 bWAR, Hays has been worth 5.4 bWAR.

Just sounds like more bad news for Lewin Diaz lol

Last season, Irvin had a streak of 11 games in a row in which he pitched at least 6.0 innings. When was the last time an Oriole starter did that? (Not saying he's an ace or something, but we could use that)

I don't think Elias trades one of his top 20 prospects, for the first time in his Oriole tenure, unless he fully expects Irvin to be in the rotation. My guess on who starts the first five games: 1. Kremer 2. Gibson 3. Bradish 4. Irvin 5. Grayson Then, after the All Star Break, I could see a six man rotation to ease Means back in and keep the inning counts under control for guys like Grayson and Bradish. (If a lot goes well) It could look more like this: 1. Grayson 2. Means 3. Kremer 4. Bradish 5. Irvin/Gibson 6. Irvin/Gibson

If he had been in the Os rotation last year he would have ranked: 1st in IP 2nd in WAR 3rd in ERA

I don't think he fits with the current needs of this team. On a different note, I think it's so interesting to think about how the timing of the new LF wall changed his whole career trajectory. Imagine they didn't build the new wall last season. He hits like 7-10 extra home runs. His OPS shoots up .050-.100 points. His free agent market would look way different. Bad timing for him.

I would prefer to watch Urias, Stowers, and Vavra over Frazier and O'Hearn. I also don't want to see Westburg and Cowser blocked by these stopgaps. Can't James McCann start a couple games at 1B? He played there a bit last season. He has a career .777 OPS against LHP... I also think Urias should be playing 5-6 days a week. The man has 5.6 rWAR over his first 690 career ABs for god's sake.

Ramon Urias tied Manny Machado in votes on Fielding Bible. He was named the second best (defensive) third baseman in the AL.

2.4 WAR player in 2021 with a .727 OPS and a plus glove. But, still. Why? Can't we just watch Stowers, McKenna, and Diaz? Are we trading Mullins or something?

So it seems like the overall take from the Hangout is: -Mancini trade netted a slightly better than expected return. -Lopez trade netted a slightly worse than expected return, especially considering he wasn't a free agent until 2025. More or less?

Bad timing for Mancini to be on an 0-23 stretch, or whatever it is...

Just walk this guy. Make someone else beat you. Especially when you have a runner on second and first base is open. He's the best hitter on the planet.

I've been saying it since last year! Urias will be the starting second baseman on our next playoff team.

Before this season started, I thought Akin and Kremer were toast.

Wander Franco and Kevin Kiermaier will be on the IL for this series. That bodes well for the O's...

For what its worth, MLBTradeRumors said they don't think the O's would get a Top 100 prospect for Trey: "Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization." I think there is an argument to be made for keeping Trey based on the intangible benefits he'll have on this young team throughout the rest of the season (confidence, experience, etc.). The argument doesn't need to be about the fans. There is a baseball case for hanging on to Trey. (There is, of course, also a baseball case for trading him.)

Fair point. And the 2022 O's are not the 2019 Nats. But, the math remains favorable for wild card teams in MLB compared to other sports. In the last 20 years, a wildcard team has gone on to win the WS a staggering 30% of the time. For contrast, in the NBA, a 7th or 8th seed team has never won the NBA Championship... If you make the MLB playoffs, you may win the World Series.

There is quite a bit of statistical analysis showing that MLB's playoffs are a crapshoot. A wildcard team or high seed has a dramatically higher chance of becoming champions, compared to a sport like hockey or basketball. The 2019 Nationals were a (mediocre) wild card team that went on to win the World Series. Before finishing the regular season 9-1, very few people would have even considered them one of the top 10 teams in baseball. Even with that hot finish, they only had the 8th or 9th best record. Not saying we should bet the farm on 2022, but if the O's make it as a wildcard team, they absolutely have a shot at the whole thing.

I like your style. Also, Baseball-Reference now gives the O's a 6.1% chance at making the postseason in 2022, so Why Not?

I think it has become completely clear that we should be competing for a playoff spot in 2023.