Bubble Buddy
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Posts posted by Bubble Buddy
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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
Not the best comparison. DJ was/is an incredible defender. Villar is below average. Also, it's hard not to look at this season as a bit of an outlier because Villar has largely been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career. To me, this feels a lot like Andrew Cashner going into free agency coming off his 3.40 era 2017 season. The only team that believed in his ability to duplicate that success was the Orioles. I'm curious to see if the league buys into Villar's season. My gut tells me they won't.
Yeah but, this isn't his walk year. So not quite apples to apples compared to Cashner.
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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:
I actually like this team.
They don't quit. They don't care that they're not supposed to be good. Like a boxer that gets his face beat in and gets up off the canvas asking for more, they're always ready for the next round. They'll get destroyed one night and come back the next like nothing happened.
I felt like last years team was sleepwalking through the season by June. This team, as bad as they've been and as bad as they can be is infinitely more fun to watch. I'm thrilled that they came out on top of that 16 inning game, that has to be very satisfying.
I agree here.
Honestly, having prepared for a long rebuild (which we still have ahead of us), this season has been really fun to watch the Orioles organization as a whole. Gritty MLB team with some pleasant surprises from a roster of basically no-names, that is outperforming one with plenty of names from last year.
Then, IMO, everything outside of the MLB team has gone about as well as you could expect. It feels like most of the noteworthy prospects have showed out. Each and every night it's felt like there's a positive report. We got the best #1 in years and made a significant international market investment. And now all of that is reflected in a top 10 farm system ranking that many of us thought may be a year or two off.
I'm feeling good for sure, and this year has felt way better than last year, for lots of reasons.
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I see a grand total of one pitch that was really a strike but was called a ball.
Still wanted a few of those on the outside corner. Maybe it was the way it was framed, but they were looking good on the TV.
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11 hours ago, ScGO's said:
It got away from him in the 4th for sure, but that ump was squeezing him all game
Ain't that the truth. I thought there were at least 5 or so borderline pitches of which he got none. And I was surprised that Palmer/Thorne didn't really comment.
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On 6/6/2019 at 9:31 AM, Frobby said:
He’s almost always been inconsistent in the first half of the season, then gets his act together. But viewed as a whole, his performance is disappointing. Still topping out at 98 yesterday. He’s just not that good.
I thought he could put it all together. But the further we get along, the clearer it is that he is just a two pitch pitcher and that was basically the scouting report out of college. And even the splitter isn't the most reliable second pitch. When he has the slider going, he can be dominant. But he's never developed it consistently and doesn't look like he will.
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13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
With the Nats Severino walked in 8.9% of PAs. With the O's it 10.0%. Small uptick.
With the Nats Severino had one brief, 33-game stint in AAA where he OPS'd .756. His overall AAA OPS is .664. His career minor league OPS is .642, and his career OPS as a pro, including this year, is .645.
Kinda reminds me of Sandy Leon. Now Pedro is younger, but certainly signs point to him crashing back down, or becoming a huge outlier.
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Good little write up on fangraphs. I feel like it just puts some numbers to what we've been seeing. Means may be able to be a #4/5 if no further improvement is made. If he can add an effective breaking ball, perhaps this is just the beginning.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/john-means-changeup-means-business/
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1 hour ago, Aglets said:
Currently slashing .302/.378/.492 at Bowie.
Hasn't failed at any level of minor league baseball yet.......is he a future piece?
Definitely should be encouraging that he's kinda bounced back and is putting up good numbers at AA right now. Struggled a bit end of last year. Hopefully he can keep it up.
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21 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:
How Reputable is MLBPipeline? Nice to see we have 4 guys in there (that I counted, although I think it should be 5 guys if Rodriguez is our #5 guy)
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3 hours ago, LA2 said:
Guthrie, Millwood, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen. Actually had a semblance of a rotation then. Not much of a record, but except for the future CY Award winner, they made their starts and averaged close to or over 6 innings.
Kevin freaking Millwood. Haven't thought about his season with the Orioles in a long time.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’ll go to my grave wondering what happened to Matusz.
As to Means, we deserve a pleasant surprise.
Me too. The experience of watching him rise and then fall off a cliff as a starter has definitely kept me cautious about putting hopes in a young pitcher. I feel like I wait at least a year and a half before setting serious expectations.
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It's no joke that this guy now sits at 92 MPH on his fastball. (https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=16269&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=)
If the change stays and he can get a breaker over the plate, what's not real about him? It's not like he's up there throwing 88. Sitting 92, with location and a change up could very well continue to play. I'm excited. When Brian Matusz was dominant for that early stretch, his change up was his best pitch IMO. Could pitch backwards, low 90's FB. His breaker is better than Means, but hopefully means can stay consistent with the change up how Matusz couldn't.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m feeling optimistic, but “legit” doesn’t come from one start, or even a handful. “Legit” comes when the whole league has seen a guy a couple of times and they still can’t do much against him. That said, Means’ change-up is a weapon. I think Hyde is right to keep encouraging Means to throw his breaking pitches, so that hitters can’t just sit back and wait on a two-pitch mix.
I didn't get to watch last night. It looks like he threw a lot more breaking pitches.. And he didn't get shelled? Did they look passable enough? Threw them as strikes?
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1 hour ago, sdmarkakis said:
Pretty much every writeup of Lowther has him as an MLB quality pitcher. I guess you know better from your random dismissal of him. Wells isn't a rock star but he's a guy who will likely find his way into a decent MLB career as a back of the rotation starter or mid-relief guy.
'Decent' is a low bar. So maybe you should just choose your words more carefully.
Also, isn't Keegan Akin a decent prospect? Backend starter type? Struggling a bit in AAA right now, but had a good year last year.
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On 4/28/2019 at 2:59 PM, atomic said:
Dylan Buddy and Hunter Harvey were great at that stage too. If he gets 17 career WAR like Ballard we should be very happy.
And both of those guys were really legit pitching prospects that have been beset by injury. So barring injury, it's easy to get excited about the kid.
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His breaking ball isn't great, but I thought it looked at least average a couple times he offered it up. About 80% of the time it was pretty bad, but he had a couple good ones. Control looks pretty good. FB velocity definitely playable and his control is pretty good too. If he can throw a breaking pitch for a strike, we might have a pretty solid starter on our hands.
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43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Outfielders since WWII with an OPS+ between 74 and 80 through age 27 (min 1000 PAs):
Rk Player Year OPS+ PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO 1 Delino DeShields 2019 77 1600 2015 2019 22-26 441 1375 254 334 60 14 15 103 167 1 362 2 Jake Marisnick 2018 79 1532 2013 2018 22-27 565 1399 197 316 61 7 44 144 83 5 456 3 Felix Pie 2011 77 1051 2007 2011 22-26 398 964 127 240 44 13 17 97 68 1 214 4 Tony Gwynn 2010 75 1054 2006 2010 23-27 366 924 112 225 26 12 5 56 107 7 161 5 Chris Burke 2007 80 1155 2004 2007 24-27 359 1020 148 254 61 5 20 94 80 1 194 6 Cory Sullivan 2007 80 1020 2005 2007 25-27 337 904 130 254 47 15 8 74 69 4 208 7 Brian Hunter 1998 79 2302 1994 1998 23-27 520 2124 307 576 100 17 15 144 141 1 365 8 Marc Newfield 1998 76 1051 1993 1998 20-25 355 957 98 238 53 1 22 132 69 4 162 9 Tom Goodwin 1996 75 1230 1991 1996 22-27 381 1103 176 309 32 8 5 67 84 0 166 10 David Hulse 1995 74 1243 1992 1995 24-27 342 1148 189 310 32 20 5 97 68 3 188 11 Darren Lewis 1995 75 2287 1990 1995 22-27 579 2022 303 503 58 23 9 135 189 0 227 12 Brady Anderson 1991 77 1273 1988 1991 24-27 390 1081 139 237 42 11 10 88 135 8 210 13 Herm Winningham 1989 77 1466 1984 1989 22-27 581 1325 148 318 47 19 14 112 122 15 293 14 Marvell Wynne 1987 78 2001 1983 1987 23-27 595 1832 215 455 73 20 18 144 133 5 263 15 George Wright 1986 79 2325 1982 1986 23-27 627 2160 231 529 88 18 42 208 126 21 314 16 John Shelby 1985 78 1015 1981 1985 23-27 356 950 134 233 36 9 19 86 45 2 185 17 Hector Cruz 1980 79 1658 1973 1980 20-27 554 1479 170 332 65 9 32 185 157 15 289 18 Tony Scott 1979 77 1370 1973 1979 21-27 466 1249 158 315 47 17 10 135 94 11 223 19 Rusty Torres 1976 80 1100 1971 1976 22-27 440 951 107 198 36 4 21 83 117 12 177 20 Don Hahn 1975 75 1149 1969 1975 20-26 454 997 104 235 38 4 7 74 122 9 158 21 Boots Day 1974 76 1289 1969 1974 21-26 471 1151 146 295 28 6 8 98 95 11 141 22 Bill Voss 1971 80 1151 1965 1971 21-27 397 1029 107 238 21 9 18 118 101 11 145 23 Cap Peterson 1969 80 1289 1962 1969 19-26 536 1170 106 269 44 5 19 122 101 11 195 24 Bill Robinson 1969 75 1009 1966 1969 23-26 316 917 89 190 33 11 16 93 70 10 150 25 Jose Tartabull 1966 78 1300 1962 1966 23-27 463 1192 154 316 36 21 2 78 77 0 92 26 Nelson Mathews 1965 78 1076 1960 1965 18-23 306 978 93 218 39 14 22 98 88 13 248 27 Bob Borkowski 1953 74 1046 1950 1953 24-27 363 971 110 246 30 9 15 92 66 3 140 28 Hal Jeffcoat 1952 76 1706 1948 1952 23-27 523 1590 190 404 84 15 16 143 81 3 202 29 Lloyd Merriman 1951 75 1038 1949 1951 24-26 309 944 113 230 50 10 11 93 82 4 93
Brady didn't just have the best career among players on this list, he lapped the field three times. Tom Goodwin (.670 OPS, 244 SB) is probably #2. Brady and Felix Pie were neck-and-neck through 27.
Interesting. Felix Pie has his moments with us. That's a good comparison for me to temper expectations.
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36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
It's 2019. My 12-year-old soccer playing kid throws 88.
So I exaggerate, but "occasionally hits 95" is getting darned close to MLB average.
His first two seasons his FB average was 94.8 and 94.9 MPH. So he was sitting 95. And that was as a starter most of the time.
This year it's 93.6. Definitely didn't get the velocity bump out of the pen, which is a bit surprising because a lot of guys do.
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42 minutes ago, interloper said:
They mention "raw stuff" and "94 mph fastball" and that's the thing about Mike Wright. He doesn't have all that good of stuff! When he humps it up to 96 on rare occasion, then it's a little more intriguing. But his slider stinks most of the time, his fastball is mediocre and he can't command it, and that's the extent of his repertoire.
I can't imagine they squeeze more out of him other than a couple of good initial appearances (because that's how Wright rolls), but if they do, I'll be extremely curious about it.
Didn't Wright used to hit high 90's every now and then? I feel like I remember in his first couple of starts he was hitting high 90's?
Answer is yep. He used to sit around 95 MPH. https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=12586&position=P&pitch=FA&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2015&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=I always thought he'd be some kinda useful out of the pen. But the results were putrid.
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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Seems like the Jays thought he was much like DJ Stewart. Kind of a 1st rd bust. Avg to below defense, even in the corners. They didn’t care about the base running. Not eye popping athleticism. Seems like they wanted to go with “higher ceiling” players.
The guy just plays the game the right way. Consistent good ABs and he’s hitting from the top of the order.
Great pickup.
I can kinda see it from their perspective and basically what you were saying: 747 OPS in minor league career. Not a big HR hitter. Average OBP.
Makes me feel like he's probably due for a pretty good regression. But he's been a great pick up for us and we've got room to see if he can blossom in MLB. From my amateur eye test, his game looks pretty good.
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Anybody know how Adam's defense in RF is looking? I feel like he should still have enough speed and arm to make it work out there.
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8 hours ago, Obando said:
Both were never highly rated prospects in their respective systems, but worked their way up the ladder, made it to the majors, and in the case of Kuechel, has had a ton of success despite lacking dominant stuff. Both are lefties that have good control/command and great changeups, and so far from what I’ve seen from Means, he’s not scared out on the mound. He has some moxie and poise, just like Kuechel. I love how he stood up to Yandy Diaz after he threw up and in on him, Yandy shot him a dirty look, and Means said “What are you looking at?” to him with a serious face. Then Means proceeded to strike him out on the next pitch. It was a thing of beauty!
Kuechel ended up becoming a major part of the Astros’ success during their rebuild, and the Orioles are in the early stages of their rebuild right now. Maybe I’m just excited after watching Means close out this game against the Rays, but in general, I’ve been very impressed with him so far this season.
If the Orioles have any luck at all, Means will become that unexpected top of the rotation type of starter that the Astros ended up getting with Kuechel unexpectedly. I’m not suggesting Means will win 20 games and become a Cy Young winner, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t become a staple of the rotation for many years to come based on what he’s shown me so far.
His velocity is up 4 or so MPH right? I mean, he's routinely touching 94. And to my eyes, it looked like he has really good movement on the FB and CH. I'm not sure that his breaking pitch is too great, but a lefty with that velocity, movement and CH?
If I didn't know already I would have thought he'd be at least a top 10 prospect in our system.
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11 hours ago, Bradysburns said:
I'm still disgusted by the totally unnecessary trade of Gausman at that time. I don't think we even sold "low"... We just made a desperate deal from a position of weakness. It's just embarrassing to even think about.
I wish the AngelBros would have held off on the Gausman trade at least.
The other trades, no worries. They look decent so far.
But KG? That was plain stupid. I hope he has a killer career, personally. I always loved watching him pitch when he was on. And he seemed like a genuinely neat kid.
Ah well. At least we kept Bundy.
Here, here. That was a very "businessy move". Salary dump. Which just stinks because if KG was producing this year, we could have gotten way more. He's been pretty healthy his whole career too. Consistent velocity. Just needed to iron out those secondaries. But even then he still did OK.
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Does anybody remember when DD was real serious about not letting pitchers use the cutter? I remember it was centered around Bundy.
I can’t help but watch him now and feel like he’s turned into what DD feared. Whether it’s as a result of the use of the cutter or not is very debatable.
But he has no feel for his curveball and kind of uses his cutter/slider as a crutch. Plus, fastball velo is down. That’s exactly what I remember DD pointing out about the cutter. Saps velo and can lessen effectiveness of other pitches.
It might be all due to injury for Bundy. But man, he doesn’t have the velocity, pitch arsenal or control to succeed as a starter right now.
Austin Hays called up
in Orioles Talk
Posted
booooo. Loved the pies.