Seems like a good time to jump into the board. I'm a data scientist that has been dabbling in MLB analytics for a while. Here's a summary of these contracts and how they line up with model projections.
Note: This is likely underselling the injury impacts for deGrom / Kershaw / Syndergaard. These projections assume 32 starts, so if you think a guys is good for less than that, adjust accordingly.
Given these projections, I wouldn't mind at all taking the deals for Rodon / Bassitt / Kershaw, though if the latter happened I'd be absolutely shocked. Really don't like Perez: underlying numbers aren't great. Model also doesn't see Verlander holding up much longer against age, but he's beaten those curves before so...
Justin Verlander [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $72 Million, Proj. Value: $54 million]
2023 Projections [SP15, 183 IP, 3.83 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $31.7 Million Value]
2024 Projections [SP37, 170 IP, 4.05 FIP, 3.0 WAR, $22.0 Million Value]
Jacob deGrom [Term: 3 Years, Cost: $120 Million, Proj. Value: $119 million]
2023 Projections [SP1, 162 IP, 3.28 FIP, 6.1 WAR, $52.1 Million Value]
2024 Projections [SP8, 152 IP, 3.50 FIP, 4.8 WAR, $38.5 Million Value]
2025 Projections [SP20, 142 IP, 3.71 FIP, 3.7 WAR, $28.5 Million Value]
Carlos Rodon [Term: 4 Years, Cost: $96 Million, Proj. Value: $94 million]
2023 Projections [SP15, 165 IP, 3.70 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $31.6 Million Value]
2024 Projections [SP27, 155 IP, 3.81 FIP, 3.4 WAR, $25.5 Million Value]
2025 Projections [SP44, 145 IP, 3.92 FIP, 2.8 WAR, $20.5 Million Value]
2026 Projections [SP65, 136 IP, 4.03 FIP, 2.3 WAR, $16.5 Million Value]
Chris Bassitt [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $36 Million, Proj. Value: $37 million]
2023 Projections [SP42, 173 IP, 4.10 FIP, 2.9 WAR, $20.9 Million Value]
2024 Projections [SP67, 161 IP, 4.22 FIP, 2.3 WAR, $16.2 Million Value]
Martin Perez [Term: 2 Years, Cost: $40 Million, Proj. Value: $19 million]
2023 Projections [SP108, 162 IP, 4.37 FIP, 1.6 WAR, $11.0 Million Value]
2024 Projections [SP129, 151 IP, 4.43 FIP, 1.4 WAR, $8.3 Million Value]
Clayton Kershaw [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $18 Million, Proj. Value: $30 million]
2023 Projections [SP18, 161 IP, 3.71 FIP, 3.9 WAR, $29.8 Million Value]
Noah Syndergaard [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $15 Million, Proj. Value: $15 million]
2023 Projections [SP73 154 IP, 3.99 FIP, 2.2 WAR, $15.1 Million Value]
Tyler Anderson [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $18 Million, Proj. Value: $13 million]
2023 Projections [SP86 163 IP, 4.34 FIP, 1.9 WAR, $13.3 Million Value]
Mike Clevinger [Term: 1 Year, Cost: $14 Million, Proj. Value: $13 million]
2023 Projections [SP87 136 IP, 4.18 FIP, 1.9 WAR, $13.2 Million Value]