dzorange

Witt also did that hitting mostly 2nd and 3rd in the lineup. Holliday won't have as many opportunities to accumulate stats hitting 9th. Although Holliday could certainly make up a lot of WAR defensively. But my point being that hitting 9th will give him less opportunities.

Most likely. But him starting with an fWAR of -0.2 through 18 games of the season and needing a 3.1 fWAR through the next 144 games is the bigger factor for me, I for sure would have voted the under if the fWAR was set at 3.1 the day he was called up.

Maybe, but the other aspect I was considering is how fans travel. Baltimore won't get fans traveling from Los Angeles, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Minneapolis or Oakland. But they will from the likes of Philly, New York, Boston, Toronto, etc, especially as the O's continue to win and the weather gets nicer. But if the O's can draw 25,000+ locally for an April weekend series against the A's, then I would expect some huge attendance numbers the rest of the season.

If we're going to wait a bit on any Henderson, Holliday, or Rutschman extension... I'd like to see Rubenstein make extending Kevin Brown a priority. If for no other reason than to show that this organization will be run differently than the previous regime, and good employees will be rewarded.

Baltimore has had some tough draws this year. Angels, Royals, Brewers and Twins. I can't imagine these teams draw in general, and especially in Baltimore. Might as well get them out of the way early in the season. Oakland next weekend won't help, but the Yankees should draw some great early season Monday through Thursday crowds. Then I expect the crowds to increase considerably.

A 3+ fWAR the rest of the way seems mighty aggressive. His defense has rated very well on Fangraphs so far as well. It's not going to continue at that rate.

Offensively he won’t. But it wouldn’t shock me if he exceeds what he did defensively in 2021.

Mullins is an absolute luxury in the bottom half of the order and defensively in CF on a team where the young prospects get all of the attention. Good to see him showing off the power to start the season.

Maybe this is a cryptic sign that he's signed Henderson to a long term deal??? Gotta save money somewhere.

Just checked the weather. Looks like no sun today but the guns will hopefully still play.

The expectations are even higher because the O's are coming off of a 100+ win season. Rutschman struggled for the first month or two (clearly not like Holliday has), but the O's had no expectation of winning going into his promotion. He was also hitting in the top six spots in the order. Holliday is hitting last regularly and is 20 years old. I guess my only point here is that the expectations of the organization have grown. Adley and Holliday were both one ones and the #1 prospect in baseball. When Adley got called up, the Orioles started winning. While Holliday has been up, the Orioles are continuing to win. As long as the O's stay competitive, keep throwing Holliday out there in the 9 spot. At minimum he's getting reps defensively at second and hasn't been hurting the team there.

Orioles going with a suns out guns out lineup with Albert Suarez pitching today.

Dude is a 74 year old billionaire and we're trying to dissect his "cryptic" tweets??

That's sort of what happened last year. Gunnar got off to his slow start with a .189 AVG but had 17 BB in April. He then really hit well the rest of the year as he walked considerably less - a 7.3% clip. That's part of the reason why I expect (and why I say needs) his walk rates to increase. He was a 12% walk rate kind of guy in the minors and in 132 PAs in 2022. He was an 18% walk rate guy last April. Clearly that's part of his DNA. What we saw in 2023 was a guy still developing at the plate. He was 22 years old.

The other poster brought up those other names. But Gunnar ranked 20th in oWAR in 2023 with Baseball Reference and 21st in Offense with Fangraphs in 2023. If we're just going off of every player's 2023 season, then Gunnar didn't make my elite cutoff. I'm surprised that of anything in my original reply, saying that Gunnar needs to improve his walk rate is what's creating a debate. Of the top 30 players in fWAR in 2023, the only ones who had a lower OBP were Witt and Robert Jr.

All of these guys with the exception of Witt, who is in the same boat as Gunnar, have batting averages considerably higher than Gunnar. Gunnar is not yet an elite player, based on his 826 career plate appearances. Not saying that he won't be going forward starting as soon as today, but his OBP needs to improve.

Of the Orioles starters, the only one with a truly poor walk rate this year is Santander (3.1%). He's generally an 8.5% walk rate kind of guy. Cowser, Westburg and Mullins are all at about 7%, but all three have been hot to start the year. They should be swinging. Henderson's walk rate is right about where it was last year, but for him to become elite it'll need to eventually improve. But 8.3% isn't horrible. Mountcastle (10.3%) and O'Hearn (11.1%) are actually up considerably. O'Hearn's isn't sustainable, but Mountcastle's may not drop too far. The two biggest reasons why the O's walk rates are down? Rutschman (down 6%) and zero walks out of Holliday, who will be the every day 2B. Once he starts to figure things out, and Adley trends back to his normal walk rates, I don't think this will be much of a concern. Santander will improve as well. So basically, are we worried about Adley, Jackson and 'Tony 'Taters? I am not.

I hate watching Hays hit. Always have. But he's going to get playing time. And he'll always be streaky with his style of hitting. If he gets hot, they can keep throwing ABs at him. At least when he's cold they can limit his ABs. Him as the fourth OF is a luxury.

I don't think Santander has ever had a good April.

Could you at least post what the league averages are for comparison sake?

I really don't know what they do unless there is an injury. O'Hearn, Westburg, Urias, Mateo and Hays all will be feeling the heat to some degree. But there will always be injuries. I think they'll wait until something comes up.

I hope McKenna finds playing time on another team. He's an MLB level player. A good backup outfielder to have. He's been an asset for the Orioles, but outfield will be just way too crowded going forward. For his sake, I hope he can find a role on another team.

I'm in the same boat. My over/under is 90. I took the under.

Irvin once started 12 games on a team that won 101 of them in a season.

Is this not exactly what he is on the Orioles? And was making this happen not a priority for the Orioles this past offseason?