Would you trade Adam Jones even up for these CF's?

[SilentJames]

The main thing Gardner did last year, besides play good defense was put up a .389 OBP, thereby giving him the opportunity to steal 47 bases. He did this primarily by getting 79 BB's. How was this lucky? I sure wish Jones could get that lucky.

If all you care about is OBP then fine. But Gardner put up a .694 OPS in the second half of last year. He only had more than 100 PA in two months of last year. His two best months last year he only had 72 and 74 PA respectively.

You are grossly overvaluing Gardner right here.

[SrMeowMeow]

If all you care about is OBP then fine. But Gardner put up a .694 OPS in the second half of last year. He only had more than 100 PA in two months of last year. His two best months last year he only had 72 and 74 PA respectively.

You are grossly overvaluing Gardner right here.

He sure isn't overvaluing Gardner's 2010. It was great.

[El Gordo]

If all you care about is OBP then fine. But Gardner put up a .694 OPS in the second half of last year. He only had more than 100 PA in two months of last year. His two best months last year he only had 72 and 74 PA respectively.

You are grossly overvaluing Gardner right here.

If you had read this thread you would have seen that I made my criteria for evaluating a CF very clear. OBP was not the foremost category. It is more important to me than slugging for a defensive intensive position like CF. As it is, Jones isn''t nearly the fielder, baserunner, or OBP guy that Gardner is. I think that far outweighs a few HR's.

[weams]

If all you care about is OBP then fine. But Gardner put up a .694 OPS in the second half of last year. He only had more than 100 PA in two months of last year. His two best months last year he only had 72 and 74 PA respectively.

You are grossly overvaluing Gardner right here.

Melky Cabrera

[Arthur_Bryant]

Voted Rasmus, McCutchen, and Span, and Span only with some hesitation.

[Frobby]

If you had read this thread you would have seen that I made my criteria for evaluating a CF very clear. OBP was not the foremost category. It is more important to me than slugging for a defensive intensive position like CF. As it is, Jones isn''t nearly the fielder, baserunner, or OBP guy that Gardner is. I think that far outweighs a few HR's.

I don't understand why you are linking which hitting categories are important to the position the player plays. If two players who play the same position are completely equal defensively, then it seems to me that the analysis of which was the more desireable offensive player would not depend on whether that player was a LF, a CF, a RF or an IF.

That said, I think Garder's combo of patience/plate discipline, high OBP and speed makes him a very effective offensive player, even if his SLG isn't going to match Jones'.

[El Gordo]

I don't understand why you are linking which hitting categories are important to the position the player plays. If two players who play the same position are completely equal defensively, then it seems to me that the analysis of which was the more desireable offensive player would not depend on whether that player was a LF, a CF, a RF or an IF.

That said, I think Garder's combo of patience/plate discipline, high OBP and speed makes him a very effective offensive player, even if his SLG isn't going to match Jones'.

Most CF, SS, 2B, aren't noted for their power numbers. The reason for this is they need speed and agility to play their positions well. That rarely combines with great power, Willy Mays not withstanding. In general I look for power numbers from corner IF and OF. Of course there are exceptions and anomalies like Hanley Ramirez. Jones at his best won't out homer a guy like Reynolds IMO, but I wouldn't want Reynolds playing SS or CF. I also wouldn't expect my 1B or LF to steal 30+ bases. I'd want them to be average fielders at least with 30+ HR. If Jones could play an above average CF, I'd be happy with him, and regard him much closer in value to Gardner. If he could bring his OBP up to .340 in additrion to that, I would rate above Gardner. I just don't think 19 HR is worth the sacrifice of defense in CF or the lack of SB.

[JayThomas]

Most CF, SS, 2B, aren't noted for their power numbers. The reason for this is they need speed and agility to play their positions well. That rarely combines with great power, Willy Mays not withstanding. In general I look for power numbers from corner IF and OF. Of course there are exceptions and anomalies like Hanley Ramirez. Jones at his best won't out homer a guy like Reynolds IMO, but I wouldn't want Reynolds playing SS or CF. I also wouldn't expect my 1B or LF to steal 30+ bases. I'd want them to be average fielders at least with 30+ HR. If Jones could play an above average CF, I'd be happy with him, and regard him much closer in value to Gardner. If he could bring his OBP up to .340 in additrion to that, I would rate above Gardner. I just don't think 19 HR is worth the sacrifice of defense in CF or the lack of SB.

Right, except doesn't Gardner play LF for them, negating much of the above? I believe Curtis Granderson is their CF.

How about this for a comp for Garner last year: a younger Juan Pierre. He could field. He could steal bases. He had a huge OBP a couple of years. He could not hit for extra bases to save his soul. Basically, same game as Gardner. If the walks don't come, the game desolves pretty quickly. I just don't think you can count on pitchers continuing to pitch finely around the corners to a guy who can't hurt them with the bat. The pitcher will be hurt much more by walking a Gardner vs letting him put the ball in play compared to guys with higher SLG pct.

[El Gordo]

Right, except doesn't Gardner play LF for them, negating much of the above? I believe Curtis Granderson is their CF.

How about this for a comp for Garner last year: a younger Juan Pierre. He could field. He could steal bases. He had a huge OBP a couple of years. He could not hit for extra bases to save his soul. Basically, same game as Gardner. If the walks don't come, the game desolves pretty quickly. I just don't think you can count on pitchers continuing to pitch finely around the corners to a guy who can't hurt them with the bat. The pitcher will be hurt much more by walking a Gardner vs letting him put the ball in play compared to guys with higher SLG pct.

No it doesn't. I am comparing Gardner to Jones as a CF. Just because Gardner played LF last year doesn't mean he still isn't a better CF than Jones. And as to Pierre, last season he scored 96 R and stole 68 bases for a 341 OBP. The year before he had a .365. He rarely walks more 30-40 times a season. He doesn't play CF anymore because he has no arm. Why do you think pitchers pitched finely to Gardner this season? He has never been a power threat. If he draws that many BB(more than Pierre ever did by 24) it's because he has a good eye and good bat control and can work counts, not because pitchers are pitching too finely to him. Gardner:4.61 P/PA, Pierre: 3.79.

[mrbig1]

I vote none of the above.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Right, except doesn't Gardner play LF for them, negating much of the above? I believe Curtis Granderson is their CF.

How about this for a comp for Garner last year: a younger Juan Pierre. He could field. He could steal bases. He had a huge OBP a couple of years. He could not hit for extra bases to save his soul. Basically, same game as Gardner. If the walks don't come, the game desolves pretty quickly. I just don't think you can count on pitchers continuing to pitch finely around the corners to a guy who can't hurt them with the bat. The pitcher will be hurt much more by walking a Gardner vs letting him put the ball in play compared to guys with higher SLG pct.

Pierre is not a good Gardner comp, because Pierre's OBP is closely tied to his BA. That hasn't been the case so far with Gardner.

An OBP tied to batting average will usually be volatile--less so when it is tied to walks, because pitch recognition and plate discipline are dependable skills. And intimidation is not the only way to draw a walk. Sluggers do have an easier time of it, but you don't have to be a slugger to draw walks. You just have to be able to command the strike zone.

Kevin Youkilis didn't scare anybody until he hit his late 20s, but he could always draw walks. And then there is this guy, who belongs on any all-time list of underrated players.

[JayThomas]

No it doesn't. I am comparing Gardner to Jones as a CF. Just because Gardner played LF last year doesn't mean he still isn't a better CF than Jones. And as to Pierre, last season he scored 96 R and stole 68 bases for a 341 OBP. The year before he had a .365. He rarely walks more 30-40 times a season. He doesn't play CF anymore because he has no arm. Why do you think pitchers pitched finely to Gardner this season? He has never been a power threat. If he draws that many BB(more than Pierre ever did by 24) it's because he has a good eye and good bat control and can work counts, not because pitchers are pitching too finely to him. Gardner:4.61 P/PA, Pierre: 3.79.

Good points. Where does one find P/PA data?

Regarding Juan Pierre. His OBP dropped off a cliff. 2009 was an aberation.

2000 - 2004:

.353

.378

.332

.361

.374

There's only one poor year in there.

2005 - 2010:

.326

.330

.331

.327

.365

.341

There's only one good year in there.

No doubt his batting avg has declined. It was cumulative .312 earlier, and cumulative .287 later.

(But) also his walk rate declined from .061 W/PA to .054 W/PA.

Anyway, I'm just throwing stuff out there. I don't need to keep going on this. I just don't think that Gardner is going to have a long and glowing career. I think he is too short - not just a little bit short, but waaayyy too short -- on power and pitchers will expose him for it. Enough for me on this topic. Some people see Gardner has being more talented that others. I'm in the latter group.

[El Gordo]

Good points. Where does one find P/PA data?

Regarding Juan Pierre. His OBP dropped off a cliff. 2009 was an aberation.

2000 - 2004:

.353

.378

.332

.361

.374

There's only one poor year in there.

2005 - 2010:

.326

.330

.331

.327

.365

.341

There's only one good year in there.

No doubt his batting avg has declined. It was cumulative .312 earlier, and cumulative .287 later.

(But) also his walk rate declined from .061 W/PA to .054 W/PA.

Anyway, I'm just throwing stuff out there. I don't need to keep going on this. I just don't think that Gardner is going to have a long and glowing career. I think he is too short - not just a little bit short, but waaayyy too short -- on power and pitchers will expose him for it. Enough for me on this topic. Some people see Gardner has being more talented that others. I'm in the latter group.

Compared to Jones OBP they are all better years. Read Bryants post above. Plate dscipline are skills independent of power.

[Winter]

I value Defense, OBP, R's, SB, and SLG from a CF in that order. For me Jackson fills the bill : 5.4 UZR, .345 OBP, 103 R, 27 SB, .400 SLG. Jones: -5 UZR, .325 OBP, 76 R, 7 SB, .442 SLG.

McCutchen! or Rasmus

[El Gordo]

McCutchen! or Rasmus

McCuthchen or Rasmus are worse defenders than Jones. Their bat do make up for it, but I prefer Jackson.