Bowden: Orioles closing in on "humbling" deal for Guerrero

[RVAbird]

Didn't they extend him this offseason? Maybe I'm misremembering...regardless, he's signed through 2013 at 26.5 million (total). IMO, that's a bit pricey for a guy who's pitched to a sub-4.51 ERA once in 4+ years (+ for 2007...only 5 games pitched).

That's right, the extension was this off-season. I knew there was a reason I put him on the back burner.

And, yes, he's pitched to a 4.45 ERA over his career and only once dipped below 4.5 (though it was way below), but he's pitched like a 3.50 ERA pitcher over the last three years. His K/BB ratio is just fantastic. If you're looking for value on the trade market, guys who are valued inefficiently, you look for guys like Nolasco.

He's as good a pitcher as Floyd in my view, and though his contract is slightly richer, he's under control for three years. Provided health I think he'll make that contract look like a steal.

[Crazysilver03]

That's right, the extension was this off-season. I knew there was a reason I put him on the back burner.

And, yes, he's pitched to a 4.45 ERA over his career and only once dipped below 4.5 (though it was way below), but he's pitched like a 3.50 ERA pitcher over the last three years. His K/BB ratio is just fantastic. If you're looking for value on the trade market, guys who are valued inefficiently, you look for guys like Nolasco.

He's as good a pitcher as Floyd in my view, and though his contract is slightly richer, he's under control for three years. Provided health I think he'll make that contract look like a steal.

Everything I read says the extension happened in April of 2008, not this off-season.

[RVAbird]

Everything I read says the extension happened in April of 2008, not this off-season.

For Nolasco?

Cot's says he was re-signed in December to a three year deal, avoiding arbitration.

EDIT: I see, you're talking about Carmona. MrOrange and I shifted focus to Nolasco in the post you quoted.

[JTrea81]

Trading Scott to sign Vlad just makes no sense.

Better to sign Vlad, move Scott to LF and dangle Remold/Pie or even Bell + Tillman for a pitcher.

[RVAbird]

Trading Scott to sign Vlad just makes no sense.

Better to sign Vlad, move Scott to LF and dangle Remold/Pie or even Bell + Tillman for a pitcher.

It makes perfect sense if you can get good value for Scott.

[OrangeJerseys]

I'm beginning to get the feeling AM has got something in the works that non of us really see coming. Hopefully involving starting pitching. This supposed non interest in Vlad, talk of tight payroll, and semi-logjam in LF makes me think we're gonna see multiple players getting moved.

[MrOrange82]

That's right, the extension was this off-season. I knew there was a reason I put him on the back burner.

And, yes, he's pitched to a 4.45 ERA over his career and only once dipped below 4.5 (though it was way below), but he's pitched like a 3.50 ERA pitcher over the last three years. His K/BB ratio is just fantastic. If you're looking for value on the trade market, guys who are valued inefficiently, you look for guys like Nolasco.

He's as good a pitcher as Floyd in my view, and though his contract is slightly richer, he's under control for three years. Provided health I think he'll make that contract look like a steal.

Huh...remind me to check fangraphs before making snap, ERA-based judgments. What is it about Nolasco that makes batted balls find holes? Obviously not surprising at-all that in his very good ERA season (2008) his BABIP-against was .271, whereas every other year it's been .307 or higher.

(mostly rhetorical questioning)

Of course, as you already implied, this is mostly academic. Given that the Fish just extended him, I doubt he'll be going anywhere (else) this winter. Better target than I thought at first, though. Much better.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Trading Scott to sign Vlad just makes no sense.

Better to sign Vlad, move Scott to LF and dangle Remold/Pie or even Bell + Tillman for a pitcher.

Well, you don't really trade Scott to sign Vlad. You trade Scott if you think you can get a good return, and sign Vlad as a 1-year stopgap replacement. Maybe it's just semantics, but I think there's a difference.

[RVAbird]

Huh...remind me to check fangraphs before making snap, ERA-based judgments. What is it about Nolasco that makes batted balls find holes? Obviously not surprising at-all that in his very good ERA season (2008) his BABIP-against was .271, whereas every other year it's been .307 or higher.

(mostly rhetorical questioning)

Of course, as you already implied, this is mostly academic. Given that the Fish just extended him, I doubt he'll be going anywhere (else) this winter. Better target than I thought at first, though. Much better.

Nothing that doesn't make batted balls find holes for other pitchers over limited sample sizes - randomness.

His BABIP was low in his good ERA season - and his FIP and xFIP accordingly were about .25 higher.

His BABIP and HR rate were inflated in every other season, and accordingly his FIP and xFIP were considerably lower.

These things aren't just pulled out of thin air, and outside of knuckleballs, extreme ground-ball ratios and extreme fly-ball ratios, pitchers don't exert much control over their BABIPs.

[DrungoHazewood]

Huh...remind me to check fangraphs before making snap, ERA-based judgments. What is it about Nolasco that makes batted balls find holes? Obviously not surprising at-all that in his very good ERA season (2008) his BABIP-against was .271, whereas every other year it's been .307 or higher.

Nothing that doesn't make batted balls find holes for other pitchers over limited sample sizes - randomness.

His BABIP was low in his good ERA season - and his FIP and xFIP accordingly were about .25 higher.

His BABIP and HR rate were inflated in every other season, and accordingly his FIP and xFIP were considerably lower.

These things aren't just pulled out of thin air, and outside of knuckleballs, extreme ground-ball ratios and extreme fly-ball ratios, pitchers don't exert much control over their BABIPs.

A question: Maybe a better BABIP estimator would do better than the old (LD% + .12), but by that simple method Nolasco's numbers are (.20 + .12) = .320. His real BABIP is .301. According to that he's allowed maybe 50 hits fewer than you'd expect.

Or am I missing something? That's entirely possible.

[Tony-OH]

This thread has branched into several subjects. Please start those up in their own threads. This one has run it's course and is hard to follow now. Thanks.