Bowden: Orioles closing in on "humbling" deal for Guerrero

[AgentOrange]

I think we may be seeing Pie on the move... That's just me...

I see Pie as 4th OF and Reimold back in AAA to start the year to see if the positive reports are true. If they are, we have quite a few chips at the trading deadline to use if we want to.

[Elston Gunnn]

You know, signing Vlad will probably net us a win simply on the basis that we won't have to face him anymore.

:agree:

I will probably go to more games just to see Vlad tomahawk in Camden Yards for us.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I understand the Sosa fear, but hey, this is January and we're supposed to be delusional (I remember being hopeful about Garrett Atkins a year ago this time).

But I read thru some posts on here that have my head scratching:

1. Signing Vlad to a humbling deal is bad for clubhouse chemistry. Huh? No one is forcing Vlad to sign for anything. And when was the last time that Vladimir Guerrero caused a clubhouse stir? He's one of the quietest stars I know of. He'll swing for the fences, change clothes and go home to momma's cooking. What a ridiculous statement.

2. Creating a logjam where we don't need it. Come on. Vlad comes to the plate and pitchers get a sense of fear. Maybe it's just on past reputation, but at least Vlad justified it last year for certain stretches. That's a valuable and rare commodity. We could use some of that. Put him right behind Nick and watch what Nick does. And logjam? Trade someone if it's that bad. You can't have enough quality sticks, and if this one comes at a bargain, you do it.

Re: #1: he was satirizing (rather well, I thought) a certain poster for whom MacPhail can do nothing right and who will reach halfway across the state of Maine to find a reason to criticize. But that certain poster let us down and stayed classy and positive.

Re: #2: The logjam is not a problem. The potential problem (for me) is that Vlad turns out not to be very good and the O's wait a couple of months before dumping out. But I think the price will be low enough--probably around $2.5 MM is my guess--that if he isn't what they hope he'll be, they'll just move on. I have been negative on this move, but with the price this low you have buy a spin of the wheel. If Vlad turns out to be as good as some here think he'll be, then it'll be an incredible deal.

I've been somewhat negative on MacPhail for a while, but if he signs Vlad for $3MM or less, he has had a heck of an offseason, and has played his hand perfectly multiple times.

Now go get Duchscherer.

[Slappy]

Wow, if true what a great move. The whole sabrmetrics movement has put an emphasis on the 25-28 year olds, so much that "old" guys like Vlad - who still put up an .844, made the AS team, and got 11 MVP votes last year - come ridiculously cheap like this. This trend might be the next inefficiency in the market and I'm glad we're the ones exploiting it this time.

[BRobinsonfan]

I don't recall hearing anyone from the O's using the word "humbling."

The contract stipulates that he must sign the document while on his knees.

[theobird]

I think we may be seeing Pie on the move... That's just me...

I doubt it, because Pie is the only guy who can play all three OF positions and play them well. He is the perfect 4th OFer. I am the Original Reimold supporter, but I would say this signing would mean that Nolan goes to Norfolk. As another poster said, maybe to play 1st base. Who knows? But I would think that Pie would be way too valuable as a 4th OFer on a good team, and obviously the Orioles think that this is going to be a good team.

[weams]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110122&content_id=16481388&vkey=news_bal&c_id=bal&partnerId=rss_bal&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Looking like it is there...

[Arthur_Bryant]

Everyone is talking about this creating a logjam, but really it doesn't.

Scott goes to LF, Pie to 4th outfielder with 2-3 starts a week, and Reimold goes to Norfolk to play 1B everyday.

If Reimold can cut it, then it provides insurance should the O's not sign Prince Fielder (the likely scenario).

Reimold will probably go to Norfolk, but if he plays 1B at all he will share it with Brandon Snyder. And Joe Mahoney may be knocking on the door in a couple of months.

[SoBo]

I would consider a deal for Vlad or DLee as window dressing for the fans like years past if we were still rolling out guys like Geronimo Gil or Luis Matos or Deivi Cruz or Rodrigo Lopez as our ace. But since guys like Vlad and DLee are being looked upon as a good supporting cast for our young core. I love it.

[Arthur_Bryant]

And does anyone REALLY believe that he's 35?

He's probably close. According to the record, he was 18 when he signed with the Expos. I find it hard to believe that a player with that much natural ability would have gone unsigned until he was an actual 20 or 21. His older brother was already in the Dodgers' organization, so it's not like Vlad was hidden away from scouts and buscones.

He already corrected his birth date by a year in 2009, taking it from 1976 to 1975.

EDIT: Just noticed something funny in BR. Vlad's corrected birthdate is February 1975. His older brother, Wilton Guerrero, is listed with a birth date of Oct. 1974. Mama Guerrero was a very busy woman in the mid-1970s

[crowmst3k!]

I think we may be seeing Pie on the move... That's just me...

Who backs up CF? Does Angle sniff the MLB 25 man this year if Pie moves?

[BRob411]

The report is not accurate according to MacPhail, I'm glad I didn't get my hopes, I knew this would happen unfortunately.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/01/os-source-report-is-not-accurate.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Sanfran327]

Ok, now what does he do to make it an A?

No need to ask such a loaded question. You do agree that none of the FA acquisitions are cornerstone players, right? The Reynolds trade was off-the-charts awesome (an A++ in my book) considering what we parted with to get him here and what I expect his production to be like.

But Lee, Gregg, and Vlad (if it happens) are not all that impressive except for their cost. Frobby made a great point saying that the combined cost for DLee and Vlad could be ~$10M. That's downright flabbergasting, but I'm not all that excited about either player, though both make our 2011 team better.

The thing that separates this from being a solid B+ offseason and being the A++ that Theo put together in Boston was that we lacked a (sigh) premium transaction once again. I want a Cy Young candidate or a MVP candidate via trade or free agency before I give AM - or any other general manager - an A grade.

[Enjoy Terror]

There may be a couple one year deals with guys who are blocking the paths of some outfielders, but ya know... One year of watching the O's rake at the plate, particularly a hall of famer, is a reason to watch the Birds again. If anything it helps condense our upper minor leagues a bit if there are no positions for promotions. Sets the O's up to make some decent trades in the future.

[Frobby]

The report is not accurate according to MacPhail, I'm glad I didn't get my hopes, I knew this would happen unfortunately.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/01/os-source-report-is-not-accurate.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not someone who gets caught up in media rumors, 80 percent of which turn out to be wrong. But I think the odds that we will sign Vlad are better than 50/50 right now. The wording of MacPhail's statement leaves plenty of wiggle room. For example, AM could just be quibbling with the report that the offer is "humbling." He could have much more forceful in his denial if he wanted to. So, AM's answer leaves us guessing, IMO.