Are the O's a third place finisher?

[survivedc]

With the run scoring potential that this team has, with the additions of Reynolds, Lee and Hardy, assuming roberts returns to close to how well he has played, and if wieters and jones can step up just a little bit, and the pitchers can progress like they did in the last two months of last year, why can we not hope for better than a 3rd place finish?

I know the east is and always will be a great division, but as well as we played the last two months last year, and with the improvements we made, what is holding us back?

[wildcard]

I like two themes that are running through this thread.

1) The O's can finish as high as 2nd.

2) The O's will go as far as their pitching takes them.

There seems to be a general rejection of the idea that the O's can't beat the Yankees this year. That is a good point that we will have a lot more information on before opening day. The Yankees have to add some starting pitching before opening day. I think most people think they will whether it is Pettite or through a trade. Until they do the O's have a deeper staff.

MacPhail is focused on adding two more pitchers to the staff. He probably thinks that the depth of the O's pitching is the key to moving up in the standing. The pitching and defensive will likely be key to how the O's do this year. It was for the last two months of last year.

I believe Buck will get this team to surprise some people.

[Bradysburns]

Its all on the starting pitching. I think we know what we are going to get with Matusz and Guthrie. But what about Arrieta, Bergesen, and Tillman? Will Britton come up and immediately produce? Can these guys perform for an entire season?

As far as hitting, I am hoping for big years from Wieters, Lee, and Reynolds. I think we know what to expect out of Luke, Nick, and Brian. I dont think Boston will be toppled, but some over performing from the O's and some underperforming by New York could make for a very interesting season.

I agree that overcoming NY and Boston would take a small miracle. But I have to say: something about the Rays makes them feel vulnerable, at least this season. You don't lose Crawford, Garza, Soriano and Balfour in one offseason and make up for them with the likes of Manny and Damon.

Not only could there be chemistry issues (not negative, just not that uniformly positive vibe they've enjoyed in the past)... The sheer energy and talent level will drop off. I really think Manny could be a drain on that team energy-wise, because they're so young. On Boston, they had a ton of wily veterans who knew how to deal with Manny. Not so sure about the Rays.

They're still a good team, but they're not invulnerable by any means. We can definitely overtake the Rays this season - at least for one year - especially if we add Vlad and Duke, IMO.

[tntoriole]

Uh....no.

[DannyO]

This is not NFL football, where you can size up the season on paper with great accuracy. This game is unpredictable and the only certainty is that there will be many major surprises.

I remember 1989. It would be silly to think anything other than that 1st place is within reach.

[Birds08]

Am I the only one that thinks the aging Yankees are no guarantee for second?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree that overcoming NY and Boston would take a small miracle. But I have to say: something about the Rays makes them feel vulnerable, at least this season. You don't lose Crawford, Garza, Soriano and Balfour in one offseason and make up for them with the likes of Manny and Damon.

Not only could there be chemistry issues (not negative, just not that uniformly positive vibe they've enjoyed in the past)... The sheer energy and talent level will drop off. I really think Manny could be a drain on that team energy-wise, because they're so young. On Boston, they had a ton of wily veterans who knew how to deal with Manny. Not so sure about the Rays.

They're still a good team, but they're not invulnerable by any means. We can definitely overtake the Rays this season - at least for one year - especially if we add Vlad and Duke, IMO.

I'm sure someone is going to make the case that Manny and Damon are the veteran stars that the Rays needed to get them over the hump.

And they didn't replace all those guys with Damon and Manny. They replaced them with Damon, Manny, and their next wave of kids from the minors. In any case, I think it's hard to objectively look at Vlad and Duchscherer and say they're definitely going to push the O's further ahead than Manny and Damon do the Rays.

There's some overlap in the probability distribution functions of the O's, the Jays, the Rays, and maybe even the Yanks. But mid-case projections almost have to have the O's and Jays behind the other three teams in the division.

[Sports Guy]

That's a scary concept. So do you think we should fire AM now, or just let his contract expire?

AM did a great job filling holes and making smart moves for 2011. He did nothing for 2012 except Reynolds.

I will concede that players he brought in could end up being trade bait, extended or let go for picks and all of those make us better long term.

But right now, we haven't really improved the team long term and that is a big issue with me.

If what we are hearing is true, the Orioles are looking to trade for a pitcher. A pitcher? I am not saying a very good starter wouldn't be welcomed but we aren't likely to get a very good starter for what we have to offer, at least one that is established. What they should be looking to get are some ML ready or close to ML ready position players for the long term.

[Sports Guy]

Although it's pretty pointless at this juncture to try to evaluate the 2012 team.

Sure, a number of guys have contracts expiring at the end of the season (notably Lee, Hardy, Gonzalez, potentially Uehara), so you can't count their potential production towards that team, but the Orioles could very well upgrade on those positions anyway, or make a corresponding lateral move. Given the lack of information, that's about as likely a scenario as presuming the designated replacements for those players will be comparatively less productive.

There's just no telling how the team will handle personnel turnover at that point, and how much of it there will even be remains to be seen. We could draw similar conclusions for just about any team that has a number of contracts expiring at the end of a given season.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious...Did you read the words if i had to bet RIGHT NOW? If you did, you should be able to figure out what I meant.

[wildcard]

AM did a great job filling holes and making smart moves for 2011. He did nothing for 2012 except Reynolds.

I will concede that players he brought in could end up being trade bait, extended or let go for picks and all of those make us better long term.

But right now, we haven't really improved the team long term and that is a big issue with me.

If what we are hearing is true, the Orioles are looking to trade for a pitcher. A pitcher? I am not saying a very good starter wouldn't be welcomed but we aren't likely to get a very good starter for what we have to offer, at least one that is established. What they should be looking to get are some ML ready or close to ML ready position players for the long term.

SG, where are you on the whole Vlad vs Pie/Reimold thing? Is Vlad a good move IYO?

[Sports Guy]

SG, where are you on the whole Vlad vs Pie/Reimold thing? Is Vlad a good move IYO?

I personally wouldn't sign him. I would rather see Reimold/Pie get the at bats..just as I want Tillman to get the innings.

Now, if you get Vlad for next to nothing, there is upside there.

Put it this way, I gave the offseason a B- last week. I wouldn't change the grade, in either direction, if we signed Vlad(assuming its a cheap deal).

BTW, one thing to add to what I said about AM not addressing the long term. The one thing I will say for him is if this team does win 81+ games and we sell tickets and can up the budget, then AM will have helped the long term of this team...of course, I say that with the assumption that the money will be spent wisely and well..actually spent.

[wildcard]

I personally wouldn't sign him. I would rather see Reimold/Pie get the at bats..just as I want Tillman to get the innings.

Now, if you get Vlad for next to nothing, there is upside there.

Put it this way, I gave the offseason a B- last week. I wouldn't change the grade, in either direction, if we signed Vlad(assuming its a cheap deal).

BTW, one thing to add to what I said about AM not addressing the long term. The one thing I will say for him is if this team does win 81+ games and we sell tickets and can up the budget, then AM will have helped the long term of this team...of course, I say that with the assumption that the money will be spent wisely and well..actually spent.

Nice solid position.

[flashjordnk]

I personally wouldn't sign him. I would rather see Reimold/Pie get the at bats..just as I want Tillman to get the innings.

Now, if you get Vlad for next to nothing, there is upside there.

Put it this way, I gave the offseason a B- last week. I wouldn't change the grade, in either direction, if we signed Vlad(assuming its a cheap deal).

BTW, one thing to add to what I said about AM not addressing the long term. The one thing I will say for him is if this team does win 81+ games and we sell tickets and can up the budget, then AM will have helped the long term of this team...of course, I say that with the assumption that the money will be spent wisely and well..actually spent.

Really you're already talking about 2012, in a discussion about the O's finishing in 3rd place in 2010 and we haven't played a single game.

A single minor leaguer hasn't improved or regressed. Britton hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet. Free agency doesn't roll around for another 6 moths for 2012.

You're in such a rush to bash something that is so far in the future, I just don't get how/why it's part of this thread.

If the O's finish in 3rd place as Frobby and others have said here it's going to come on the heels of our pitching. If that comes in the form of Tillman rounding out and Britton getting it done in the majors I'd be hard pressed to say this team will regress to 5th place no matter what next year.

But seriously...if we can't bash AM for his 2011 moves, let's get on him for 2012 already!

[TrappedinWV]

Am I the only one that thinks the aging Yankees are no guarantee for second?

Not at all, but what do I know. :beerchug1:

[CompuCoach]

Thanks for pointing out the obvious...Did you read the words if i had to bet RIGHT NOW? If you did, you should be able to figure out what I meant.

So, you would put down money assuming that the team just totally ignores positions of need (due to expiring contracts) leading into 2012? Is that really rational?

P.S. Thanks for the negative reputation, Sports Guy! "what a stupid way to look at things."

I like you, too!