Should we spend money just to spend it?

[mweb]

We really dont. Gibbons has never been one and until he puts up those numbers, you can't just "project". Tejada is, but the power has left him recently and he would sure be helped by a guy with Lee's power numbers.

Keep in mind, I have no preference for him over Soriano. But if we're serious about contending and spending our big money, we better go get one of them.

Im sorry, there's "platoon" out there that can capably replace Lee's power numbers, unless the idea of Frank Catalanato: Cleanup hitter, is really equivalent to you.

First off, there's no projecting needed with Gibbons, he hits hr's at a 30+ hr pace, he just doesn't play enough games to get there. It's not like I'm saying he will improve his performance.

Secondly, I'm not hung up on hr's like you're, as the old saying goes, there are many ways to skin a cat. A platoon that produces an .850 OPS with 15-20 hr's is just as good to me(except the extra roster spot needed) as an .850 OPS with 30-35 hr's. Factor in the platoon would give us better defense and cost much less, and I'll go with that and wait for a real elite LF to become available or for Reimold.

[El Gordo]

Why do you consider Lee an offensive force?

Do you consider Jay Gibbons an offensive force? They are very similar players, except Lee stays healthy.

You really think a guy who has never hit 30 HR's and is a career ave..317 OBP, .786 OPS, and .263 BA, is similar to a guy who averages 30 HR's and has a career ave, .338 OBP, .830 OPS and 280 BA? They are similar defensively except that Lee would play a better LF in OPACY than Jay would. I think those are distinctions worth making.

[Sports Guy]

You really think a guy who has never hit 30 HR's and is a career ave..317 OBP, .786 OPS, and .263 BA, is similar to a guy who averages 30 HR's and has a career ave, .338 OBP, .830 OPS and 280 BA? They are similar defensively except that Lee would play a better LF in OPACY than Jay would. I think those are distinctions worth making.

I posted this the other day:

Gibbons had a 3.6 WARP last year..Lee's was 4. A healthy Jay Gibbons gives you a 320-340 OBP, 480-520 Slugging....He can give you 25-35 homers(projecting out his stats to 600 ab's shows you this..again, injuries have stopped him from doing it) and 100+ RBI's.

Lee will give you a 330-360 OBP, 480-520 Slug....He can give you 25-35 homers and 100+ RBI's.

If you look at Lee career stats, you only see a career 830 OPS. We are not talking an elite offensive player here guys.

Both him and Gibbons average an XBH every 9.2 ab's throughout their careers.

Each player strikes out once every 7 ab's....Gibbons walks once every 13 ab's...Lee walks every 12.4 ab's.

Really, when you analyze their stats, you see just how similar both guys are with one difference...Health.

Other than that, they are virtually the same offensive player. Lee will give you a very slightly higher OBP and that's it.

So, let me rephrase what i asked earlier...Would you guys pay 5/65 for a HEALTHY Jay Gibbons..If God himself came down and guaranteed Gibbons would stay healthy for the next 5 years...Would you give him that contract?

[Rockbird]

Fine, SG, Im beginning to see what you're point is, but is your alternative:

1) Go all out for Soriano.

2) Make a big trade for a bat even if it means sacrificing a Penn or Cabrera.

3) Just sign a cheap platoon of the Catalanato, Marrero, Payton ilk and magically declare them having the same production and lineup effect as a legit cleanup power hitter.

I'm down with #1 or #2. Im down on #3.

[El Gordo]

OPS measures how good an offensive player is...Homers are important but Lee is not a slam dunk for even 30 homers, although i admit it is likely he would hit that for the first 2, maybe 3 years he is here.

So you would agree that Jeter is more valuable than Tejada offensively becuase he has a higher OPS?

[Sports Guy]

So you would agree that Jeter is more valuable than Tejada offensively becuase he has a higher OPS?

Jeter has been better than Tejada this year. Tejada' VORP is just over 50...Jeter's is almost 55.

It is close but Jeter has been the better player THIS YEAR.

[Sports Guy]

1) Go all out for Soriano.

I would go all out for him way before i would Lee. But i wouldn't go all out for either.

2) Make a big trade for a bat even if it means sacrificing a Penn or Cabrera.

Depends on who the big bat is. If it is Miguel Cabrera, for example, sure i would give up guys like that.

3) Just sign a cheap platoon of the Catalanato, Marrero, Payton ilk and magically declare them having the same production and lineup effect as a legit cleanup power hitter.

It is not magic. These guys will likely produce as many or more runs than Lee will if they are used properly. Just because they hit less homers doesn't mean they don't generate runs. Plus, they hold the fort for Reimold who, within 3 years, could be putting up better numbers than Lee and playing better defense, making a whole lots less money and giving us better speed.

[El Gordo]

I posted this the other day:

Gibbons had a 3.6 WARP last year..Lee's was 4. A healthy Jay Gibbons gives you a 320-340 OBP, 480-520 Slugging....He can give you 25-35 homers(projecting out his stats to 600 ab's shows you this..again, injuries have stopped him from doing it) and 100+ RBI's.

Lee will give you a 330-360 OBP, 480-520 Slug....He can give you 25-35 homers and 100+ RBI's.

If you look at Lee career stats, you only see a career 830 OPS. We are not talking an elite offensive player here guys.

Both him and Gibbons average an XBH every 9.2 ab's throughout their careers.

Each player strikes out once every 7 ab's....Gibbons walks once every 13 ab's...Lee walks every 12.4 ab's.

Really, when you analyze their stats, you see just how similar both guys are with one difference...Health.

Other than that, they are virtually the same offensive player. Lee will give you a very slightly higher OBP and that's it.

So, let me rephrase what i asked earlier...Would you guys pay 5/65 for a HEALTHY Jay Gibbons..If God himself came down and guaranteed Gibbons would stay healthy for the next 5 years...Would you give him that contract?

Gibbons has had an OBP over .320 once and 100 RBI's once. LEE does it with regularity. Lee hits for a higer average consistantly, and he stays healthy. This year his numbers are better than Guerrero's and I think you would consider him an offensive force.

[Sports Guy]

Gibbons has had an OBP over .320 once and 100 RBI's once.

AGAIN, health has alot to do with this, especially the RBI's. I do agree that Lee will give a better OBP but its not by much. Lee only has a career 338 OBP. That is not that great. As i showed, Lee and Gibbons had virtually the same WARP last year.

and he stays healthy

.

He does do that...But that is not worth 40-50 million more than what Jay got.

This year his numbers are better than Guerrero's and I think you would consider him an offensive force.

Let's see how LEe finishes. He had a good first half last year(864 OPS, hr every 15 ab...76 rbi) but his second half was not that good(746 OPS...hr every 28 ab...38 rbi).

This year he only has 2 second half homers and a 700 OPS.

[mweb]

Gibbons has had an OBP over .320 once and 100 RBI's once. LEE does it with regularity. Lee hits for a higer average consistantly, and he stays healthy. This year his numbers are better than Guerrero's and I think you would consider him an offensive force.

You're correct that Lee is a better offensive player than Gibbons, I don't even see the debate to say otherwise, but they're relatively close.

BTW, Lee's numbers are basically the same as Vlad's. Vlad's OPS is .876, Lee's is .874. Vlad hit a hr today while Lee didn't do much, so that will make the gap slightly larger. Plus Lee is having a better year than normal while Vlad is not as good as normal, Vlad is the better player by far.

[El Gordo]

Jeter has been better than Tejada this year. Tejada' VORP is just over 50...Jeter's is almost 55.

It is close but Jeter has been the better player THIS YEAR.

Tejada is the best offensive player on his team by far. Jeter is one of many on the Yankees. What kind of numbers would Jeter put up on the O's and what kind of numbers would Tejada put up on the MFY's if you switched them. If the Yankees were dumb enough to make the trade would you be in favor of it because of Jeter's 55 VORP?

[mweb]

AGAIN, health has alot to do with this, especially the RBI's. I do agree that Lee will give a better OBP but its not by much. Lee only has a career 338 OBP. That is not that great. As i showed, Lee and Gibbons had virtually the same WARP last year.

.

He does do that...But that is not worth 40-50 million more than what Jay got.

Let's see how LEe finishes. He had a good first half last year(864 OPS, hr every 15 ab...76 rbi) but his second half was not that good(746 OPS...hr every 28 ab...38 rbi).

This year he only has 2 second half homers and a 700 OPS.

They had a similiar WARP last year in part due to Gibbons defensive edge according to BP, and the fact Gibbons had a career year.

[Sports Guy]

Tejada is the best offensive player on his team by far. Jeter is one of many on the Yankees. What kind of numbers would Jeter put up on the O's and what kind of numbers would Tejada put up on the MFY's if you switched them. If the Yankees were dumb enough to make the trade would you be in favor of it because of Jeter's 55 VORP?

Sorry but who they play on is meaningless. Tejada has ben on bad Oriole teams the last few years and has clearly been better.

Jeter is just the better player this year. There really is not an argument in yoru favor on that one.

Normally Tejada is the better player but at this point, that goes to Jeter. Maybe by the time the season is over, Tejada will once again have the title but as of today, it belongs to Jeter.

[Sports Guy]

They had a similiar WARP last year in part due to Gibbons defensive edge according to BP, and the fact Gibbons had a career year.

And the fact that Lee is just not that much better.

20-30 points of OPS is not that big of a difference, especially when you look at the salary.

Lee is better, although i am not sure he would be if Jay stayed healthy and got 600 ab's but that doesn't matter since we can't seem to find that out.

But Lee is not way better than Jay, that is for sure.

[osfan83]

I say we stand pat and hope our kids can get us to .500 in a couple of years.