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Rosenthal: Guerrero and Orioles.


paranoidfan

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The guy's Vlad should be compared to are Manny, Thome, and Branyon. So old DH types, and combined they probably won't make 8 million in base salary this year. One can make an argument that Vlad is anywhere between the 1st and 3rd most appealing player out of the 4. I'd go with the latter.

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Vlad would likely put up a 2.0 fWAR performance at least, so he'd be reasonably priced.

Anything extra he'd give you would be a bonus.

If we gave Lee $7.5 million, I think we can give Vlad something close to that.

The Orioles are probably offering something like $2-3 million.

I'd say both sides could compromise around $5-6 million with incentives to raise the value. Heck we paid Tejada $6 million last year. Vlad needs the Orioles and the Orioles need Vlad.

Agree that Vlad holding out for $8M is legit based on prior and likely performance.

There are other factors - such as supply and demand/what other DHs are signing for - that make it appear as if Vlad is likely to get $4M plus incentives of a $M or two.

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Lee plays a position and doesn't look like an old man when he moves. He should and will cost more.

Vlad will be lucky to end up with much more than 5 million.

Vlad might outperform Lee at the plate next season though. And Vlad has stayed healthier than Lee.

I agree his value takes a hit by not playing the field, but he's still a $6-8 million dollar player IMO.

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Vlad might outperform Lee at the plate next season though. And Vlad has stayed healthier than Lee.

I agree his value takes a hit by not playing the field, but he's still a $6-8 million dollar player IMO.

Yes, he might, but Lee is more likely to out hit Vad. Healthy? Have you watched him try to run?:rofl:
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Vlad would likely put up a 2.0 fWAR performance at least, so he'd be reasonably priced.

Anything extra he'd give you would be a bonus.

If we gave Lee $7.5 million, I think we can give Vlad something close to that.

The Orioles are probably offering something like $2-3 million.

I'd say both sides could compromise around $5-6 million with incentives to raise the value. Heck we paid Tejada $6 million last year. Vlad needs the Orioles and the Orioles need Vlad.

One of my recent pet peeves is the notion that WAR-based contract valuation is what the player should receive.

Fangraphs and other sites have modeled contract value based upon expected WAR contribution, age-based performance curves, current $/WAR, and inflation expectations. We see that heavily in the discussion about Pujols' contract.

Most analysis however, lacks any consideration of risk. Team's should get a discount factor for this inequity of guaranteed money for ??? future performance. There are very real probabilities of left tail events, not just from injury but drastic loss of skill occurrences.

When looking at Guerrero, he may be "worth" 2 WAR and therefore $8M. But given injury history and a very real chance that he is washed up, his discounted value has to be somewhere south of $8M.

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One of my recent pet peeves is the notion that WAR-based contract valuation is what the player should receive.

Fangraphs and other sites have modeled contract value based upon expected WAR contribution, age-based performance curves, current $/WAR, and inflation expectations. We see that heavily in the discussion about Pujols' contract.

Most analysis however, lacks any consideration of risk. Team's should get a discount factor for this inequity of guaranteed money for ??? future performance. There are very real probabilities of left tail events, not just from injury but drastic loss of skill occurrences.

When looking at Guerrero, he may be "worth" 2 WAR and therefore $8M. But given injury history and a very real chance that he is washed up, his discounted value has to be somewhere south of $8M.

Anyone who discusses a contract in terms of WAR value is also implicitly or explicitly discussing their WAR projection for the player.

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Vlad might outperform Lee at the plate next season though. And Vlad has stayed healthier than Lee.

I agree his value takes a hit by not playing the field, but he's still a $6-8 million dollar player IMO.

Incorrect. Vlad's 2009 was sapped because of injury. Lee's 2010 was sapped because of injury. Besides that, they have played most of the season every season.

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Anyone who discusses a contract in terms of WAR value is also implicitly or explicitly discussing their WAR projection for the player.

Which helps to explain why nobody is rushing to throw $8MM at him. Most teams don't like his chances of being much more than a 2-win player.

He is further being discounted for the fact that he is the odd man out in a limited market. But if some team really thought there was a good chance he would be worth three or four wins this season, the money that he wants would be there. If some team thought he would be worth seven or eight wins in the next two years, he'd be getting 2/$16.

Really, all those here who are throwing around his 2010 slash line as if it represents his most likely level this year should be aware that they're disagreeing with most of the decision-makers in MLB.

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