O's wild card contender in 2011?

[LookinUp]

If you think they are a WC CONTENDER, then you have to think that this team is a borderline 90 win team with Vlad.

Do you guys really believe that?

I think we have an outside shot at being a contender, for sure.

Either these young guys are good or they're not. Either we're healthy or we're not.

I also see the competition this year as quite diminished from previous years. They Rays will be good, but not great. The Yankees are a very flawed team at this point. The Jays are in rebuilding mode. The West may be a non-factor in the wild card calculus unless Oakland takes a big step forward.

To me, the Red Sox are clearly the class of the AL and the central has a few dangerous teams to contend for the WC, but to say that a healthy O's team has no shot at all would be foolish, IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

As KAZ97 has pointed out, win probability in baseball is fairly well modeled by a binomial distribution. If you assume the O's true talent is a 78-win team, then they have about a 0.4% chance of winning 95 games, or about a 3.5% chance at 90 wins. If you think they're an 85-win true talent team, they have about a 25% chance at 90 wins, and about a 7% chance at 95 wins.

Vlad is likely a 1 or 2 win addition to the O's. Two wins in true talent, depending on where you think the O's are before Vlad and how many wins constitute "contending", adds 5%, maybe 10% to the O's playoff odds.

So... a good middle-ground swag is that the O's have bit less than a 10% chance at the playoffs without Vlad, maybe 12-15% or so with him.

[LookinUp]

So... a good middle-ground swag is that the O's have bit less than a 10% chance at the playoffs without Vlad, maybe 12-15% or so with him.

I have no idea what you're talking about, but I agree. :laughlol:

[SilentJames]

Need to be one of the top five teams in the league, at least the top 6.

Boston

New York

Texas

Minnesota

Detroit

Tampa

I think it is safe to say that all those teams will rank higher than the Orioles next year.

[clapdiddy]

As KAZ97 has pointed out, win probability in baseball is fairly well modeled by a binomial distribution. If you assume the O's true talent is a 78-win team, then they have about a 0.4% chance of winning 95 games, or about a 3.5% chance at 90 wins. If you think they're an 85-win true talent team, they have about a 25% chance at 90 wins, and about a 7% chance at 95 wins.

Vlad is likely a 1 or 2 win addition to the O's. Two wins in true talent, depending on where you think the O's are before Vlad and how many wins constitute "contending", adds 5%, maybe 10% to the O's playoff odds.

So... a good middle-ground swag is that the O's have bit less than a 10% chance at the playoffs without Vlad, maybe 12-15% or so with him.

This seems like good reasoning. I would have given us a 0% chance at the wild card last year.

[cindyluvsbrady]

With or without him My Os will be the 2011 WS Champs:):2yay-thumb:

BELIEVE

[BRob411]

You said the exact same thing about Duchscherer. Why do you speak in such absolutes when you really have no idea about these things?

Now, I truly don't believe that Vlad will be coming here either. But I'm not going to talk about it as if it's 100% set in stone.

You aren't allowed to tell me how to think or what to say, it's my opinion. I'll say it again Vlad won't be an Oriole and I'm 100% certain of that and I will not be wrong when it's all said and done. :thumbsup1:

[ChrisAF79]

You aren't allowed to tell me how to think or what to say, it's my opinion. I'll say it again Vlad won't be an Oriole and I'm 100% certain of that and I will not be wrong when it's all said and done. :thumbsup1:

Are you 12 years old?

Like I said before, I actually agree with you and I doubt that Vlad will be an Oriole. But it's awfully annoying when someone speaks in such absolutes like you do, especially when you were wrong just a few days ago.

[BRob411]

Are you 12 years old?

Like I said before, I actually agree with you and I doubt that Vlad will be an Oriole. But it's awfully annoying when someone speaks in such absolutes like you do, especially when you were wrong just a few days ago.

I said Duch would sign with the Nats and now he's an Oriole, I've been saying Vlad will sign with another team, see the reverse negative/positive karma I'm stirring up. I'm doing this on purpose because I want Vlad to sign here, I'm weird that way. I'm trying not to get my hopes up so I'm thinking negatively so that something positive will happen. I know it's weird but it worked with Duch maybe it will work with Vlad. And I'm 29 by the way.

[bluedog]

You aren't allowed to tell me how to think or what to say, it's my opinion. I'll say it again Vlad won't be an Oriole and I'm 100% certain of that and I will not be wrong when it's all said and done. :thumbsup1:

He is allowed to tell you how to think or what to say - case in point he just did it in this thread!

Now I'm going to do it as well - making claims that you are 100% certain about things that end up being wrong (Duke's signing) undermines your credibility and you should stop doing it unless you enjoy looking foolish.

What we are actually not allowed to do is to force you to think or say what we suggest. But if you continue to post on OH using unsupportable absolutes, you should be prepared to repeatedly have other posters call you on it.

[BRob411]

He is allowed to tell you how to think or what to say - case in point he just did it in this thread!

Now I'm going to do it as well - making claims that you are 100% certain about things that end up being wrong (Duke's signing) undermines your credibility and you should stop doing it unless you enjoy looking foolish.

What we are actually not allowed to do is to force you to think or say what we suggest. But if you continue to post on OH using unsupportable absolutes, you should be prepared to repeatedly have other posters call you on it.

In another thread I said I would stop so this ends now. Leave me alone

[Spy Fox]

As some have said, I don't think Vlad is what's going to make or break us as a wild-card contender.

And as a yes/no poll, it's really tough because the obvious answer is "Maybe". But I'll say yes, because I think we are built to compete with most of the teams in this league, and with a couple surprises we can jump to the higher tier of teams.

[SilentJames]

To be a playoff contender you really have to be one of the top 5-6 teams in the league. Are the Orioles in that top five or six?

THink about the league like this - In theory you could have 7 teams over 500, 7 teams below 500. Maybe you have 6 above; 6 below and 2 at 500.

Honestly I think the Orioles will be right around 500, and 84 wins dhould put them on the periphery of the WC hunt. but being in the AL East I think there will be too many teams to jump over.

Minnesota and Detroit will likely be fighting it out for the AL central.

Texas should run away with the west again.

As of today, I say the three teams that are fighting it out for the WC are Minnesota, Detroit (with one winning the division), NY, Tampa and Boston (with one of those three winning the division)

[TonySoprano]

To be a wild card contender, you have to be one of the top two teams in your division. I don't think the 2011 Orioles are going to contend for second place.

[scOtt]

I think the O's are (barely) a WC contender this year. Contender. Not win it. Vlad will not be the one to tip the balance. It will be the rotation, our young hitters and good health that will.