O's wild card contender in 2011?

[csgordos]

Wow, the poll is exactly 50% each way at 180 votes. Do we need the vice-president of the OH to break the tie? Who would be the VP of the OH? You know somebody who has a great title, no power, lots of opinions, but after one split second of history becomes the most powerful person on the OH.:scratchchinhmm:

Fascinating!!

edit: tie was broken. thought provoking question nulled. have a good night

[Oriolidae85]

2010 O's finished 29 games out of the WC

2009 O's finished 31 games out of the WC

2008 O's finished 26.5 games out of the WC

2007 O's finished 25 games out of the WC

2006 O's finished 25 games out of the WC

2005 O's finished 21 games out of the WC

2004 O's finished 20 games out of the WC

2003 O's finished 24 games out of the WC

2002 O's finished 32.5 games out of the WC

2001 O's finished 38.5 games out of the WC (32.5 games out of 1st in AL East)

2000 O's finished 17 games out of the WC (13.5 games out of 1st in AL East)

1999 O's finished 16 games out of the WC

1998 O's finished 13 games out of the WC

I'll be rooting for them of course. But I prefer to wait and see, and enjoy the ride if they surprise me. I voted no.

2008 WS appearance

2007 Ray's finished 28 games out of the WC

2006 Ray's finished 34 games out of the WC

2005 Ray's finished 28 games out of the WC

2004 Ray's finished 27.5 games out of the WC

2003 Ray's finished 32 games out of the WC

2002 Ray's finished 43.5 games out of the WC

2001 Ray's finished 40 games out of the WC

2000 Ray's finished 41.5 games out of the WC

1999 Ray's finished 25 games out of the WC

1998 Ray's finished 29 games out of the WC

I would to, but still believe they can make a play for the WC.

[El Gordo]

Would be a fun and convenient narrative, but I doubt there is much validity. WC has never been a sub-90 proposition, and there have been larger swings in power throughout the league. It seems "rainbows and unicorns" to think BAL will suddenly be an 85-89 win team the first year that the WC goes to a 85-89 win team. Further, if the league truly saw that much parity, BAL is unlikey to make as much headway in W/L columns because wins across the board will be more difficult for everyone.

We are really talking about the AL East. Last year no 2nd place team finished with 90 W's except the Yankees. So if the Yankees fall back to the pack, there's no reason why the WC couldn't be 90 W's or less. If TAM doesn't fall too far back,TOR remains close to the same, Boston improves over their 9-9 record vs the MFY's and Baltimore improves over their 5-13 record that could well happen. It's really a question of how much the Yankees decline, relative to the rest of the AL East, as much as it how much the O's improve.

[Frobby]

How many teams are in front of the Orioles? How many of those teams just look better than the Orioles? How many of those teams have made moves?

I am sorry but for you to be a contender for the WC in the AL, you are probably going to need to be within 5 games or so heading into September and you need to be a borderline 90 win team.

Contending isn't finishing 8-10 games out with 6 teams in front of you. I wouldn't consider the BJs contenders over the last few years.

I agree that to be a contender on Sept. 1, you have to be within 5 games of the WC. So if that's the time that you are going to define who a contender is, I doubt we will be contenders. If you want to define it by where the team ends up, then I agree again with what you say here.

I would be surprised if the WC winner wins under 90. It could happen but it isn't likely at all.

[Stotle]

We are really talking about the AL East. Last year no 2nd place team finished with 90 W's except the Yankees. So if the Yankees fall back to the pack, there's no reason why the WC couldn't be 90 W's or less. If TAM doesn't fall too far back,TOR remains close to the same, Boston improves over their 9-9 record vs the MFY's and Baltimore improves over their 5-13 record that could well happen. It's really a question of how much the Yankees decline, relative to the rest of the AL East, as much as it how much the O's improve.

No, we are not talking about just the AL East. Because a fair amount of history shows that in cases where the AL East does not have that 92-97 win second place team, that slack is picked up by a 92-97 win team in the Central or West. It's zero sum. Look at all of the teams that had losing records against the AL East. Your argument that the division is down across the board means that teams like OAK, MIN, CHA, TEX, DET should all get bumps across the board. CHA was an 88 win team last year. MIN was a 94 win team. It makes complete sense to me that you could see both those teams in the 90s if they pick up a handful of extra wins against the AL East.

12 years or so of history shouldn't just be thrown out the window because it's fun right now to picture BAL in the playoff hunt. The WC has always been a 90+ win proposition, and I see no substantive reason to believe it will not be the same story in 2011.

[TakebackOPACY]

No, we are not talking about just the AL East. Because a fair amount of history shows that in cases where the AL East does not have that 92-97 win second place team, that slack is picked up by a 92-97 win team in the Central or West. It's zero sum. Look at all of the teams that had losing records against the AL East. Your argument that the division is down across the board means that teams like OAK, MIN, CHA, TEX, DET should all get bumps across the board. CHA was an 88 win team last year. MIN was a 94 win team. It makes complete sense to me that you could see both those teams in the 90s if they pick up a handful of extra wins against the AL East.

12 years or so of history shouldn't just be thrown out the window because it's fun right now to picture BAL in the playoff hunt. The WC has always been a 90+ win proposition, and I see no substantive reason to believe it will not be the same story in 2011.

Well there was that one time that an AL team won the WC with less than 90 wins:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1996-standings.shtml

[Ransom]

If I think they're going to win the division, should I vote yes or no here?

I want some of what he is having:thumbsup1:

[Oriolidae85]

No, we are not talking about just the AL East. Because a fair amount of history shows that in cases where the AL East does not have that 92-97 win second place team, that slack is picked up by a 92-97 win team in the Central or West. It's zero sum. Look at all of the teams that had losing records against the AL East. Your argument that the division is down across the board means that teams like OAK, MIN, CHA, TEX, DET should all get bumps across the board. CHA was an 88 win team last year. MIN was a 94 win team. It makes complete sense to me that you could see both those teams in the 90s if they pick up a handful of extra wins against the AL East.

12 years or so of history shouldn't just be thrown out the window because it's fun right now to picture BAL in the playoff hunt. The WC has always been a 90+ win proposition, and I see no substantive reason to believe it will not be the same story in 2011.

The 1996 Baltimore Orioles say hello (88 wins). The Astro's won the WC with 89 Wins in '05 and the Dodgers 88 wins in '05. The frequency is low, but it does happen. And there are a bunch of 90-92 Win WC teams with the next best team hovering around 85-88 Wins.

[Oriole4Life]

One thing I've learned is to never expect good things with this organization. You can think positively, but don't expect big things.

I love the Hardy, Reynolds, and Lee acquisitions. That upgrades our lineup significantly. The Gregg pickup was nice as well. Not sure our rotation is going to be that spectacular though. Is Guthrie going to rebound? Bergesen and Tillman? I hope Spoone and Patton get their chances. I can't believe Mike Gonzalez is still on this team. I don't forget blown saves, and he had like 3 huge ones early last season that put us on the wrong foot starting out.

Anyway, I think we are a much better team. A lot hinges on Wieters and Jones having good seasons. But we are better. .500 would be a good start. Wild card would be a miracle.

[Sports Guy]

The 1996 Baltimore Orioles say hello (88 wins). The Astro's won the WC with 89 Wins in '05 and the Dodgers 88 wins in '05. The frequency is low, but it does happen. And there are a bunch of 90-92 Win WC teams with the next best team hovering around 85-88 Wins.

What happens in the Nl is meaningless to this comp. The NL isn't nearly as good.

What the Orioles did back in 1996 is also meaningless because of the depth of the AL right now.

[El Gordo]

No, we are not talking about just the AL East. Because a fair amount of history shows that in cases where the AL East does not have that 92-97 win second place team, that slack is picked up by a 92-97 win team in the Central or West. It's zero sum. Look at all of the teams that had losing records against the AL East. Your argument that the division is down across the board means that teams like OAK, MIN, CHA, TEX, DET should all get bumps across the board. CHA was an 88 win team last year. MIN was a 94 win team. It makes complete sense to me that you could see both those teams in the 90s if they pick up a handful of extra wins against the AL East.

12 years or so of history shouldn't just be thrown out the window because it's fun right now to picture BAL in the playoff hunt. The WC has always been a 90+ win proposition, and I see no substantive reason to believe it will not be the same story in 2011.

We are only talking about the Yankees losing 5 more games than they did last season, while the rest of the league remains relatively the same. I don't see any other team besides Boston, who is head and shoulders above the rest. If the O's finish at 86 W they could be within 5 games of the WC, which would mean they contended, IMO.

[Stotle]

The 1996 Baltimore Orioles say hello (88 wins). The Astro's won the WC with 89 Wins in '05 and the Dodgers 88 wins in '05. The frequency is low, but it does happen. And there are a bunch of 90-92 Win WC teams with the next best team hovering around 85-88 Wins.

Haha! Okay, you got me. Once in fifteen years (I didn't go back that far). Clearly my point doesn't stand on its merits any longer...

[Stotle]

We are only talking about the Yankees losing 5 more games than they did last season, while the rest of the league remains relatively the same. I don't see any other team besides Boston, who is head and shoulders above the rest. If the O's finish at 86 W they could be within 5 games of the WC, which would mean they contended, IMO.

So long as you realize you are gerrymandering the w/l of everyone in the only possible way to give your argument legs, fine. That is a scenario, no matter how slim and unlikely, where BAL could be close to a WC with 86 wins.

If you are comfortable with the intellectual honesty of that exercise, more power to you.

[J.Twiggy]

I think they might compete for it if the young pitching staff matures currently i got them finishing 3rd in the A.L. East.

[El Gordo]

So long as you realize you are gerrymandering the w/l of everyone in the only possible way to give your argument legs, fine. That is a scenario, no matter how slim and unlikely, where BAL could be close to a WC with 86 wins.

If you are comfortable with the intellectual honesty of that exercise, more power to you.

I don't see how it's so unlikley that with the exception of Boston the top two teams in each division will finish in the vicinity of 90 W's. I also don't see how it is a great stretch for the O's to finiosh with 86 W's. "Intellectual dishonesty"? I think you're taking yourself a bit too seriously.