Orioles Primed for Second Place Finish

[El Gordo]

No AL East team will win 95 games this year.

The competition is too fierce and there are too many head to head matchups.

Are you kidding? Boston could win 100.

[crawjo]

Good prospective. Sometimes, I look position by position also to see where the weakness may be. Do Toronto, Tampa bay and Boston if you have time.

Sure: Boston

C Wieters v. Saltalamacchia -- Wieters wins that one

1B Lee v. Gonzalez -- Gonzalez by a mile

2B Roberts v. Pedroia -- Pedroia

3B Reynolds v. Youkilis -- Youkilis, he's the more complete offensive player, and I don't think his defense will be bad at all

SS Hardy v. Scutaro -- I think that one's just about a wash. Maybe Hardy is a little better. Not much difference though.

LF Scott v. Crawford -- Crawford, naturally

CF Jones v. Ellsbury -- I think Jones might actually be a little better

RF Markakis v. Drew -- I'll take Markakis, although I think Drew is underrated

DH Guerrero v. Ortiz -- Both have the potential to drop down significantly as they get older, but Ortiz is better owing to his superior on-base skills

Starting Rotations: Guthrie/Matusz/Duchscherer/Bergesen/Arrieta v. Lester/Buchholz/Beckett/Lackey/Matsuzaka

Yeah, that one's not even close.

Bullpens: I think Boston's bullpen will be a bit of a weakness. I think Papelbon has lost his edge, and the other arms don't scare me much. If healthy I actually think Uehara is a better closer than Papelbon. The rest is probably a wash, although bullpens fluctuate so much, it's hard to say.

[isestrex]

Are you kidding? Boston could win 100.

If they played in another division, then absolutely. They're in the wrong division to be that good, though.

[crawjo]

Baltimore v. Tampa

C Wieters v. Jaso - You know, if you base it off last year, you'd have to say Jaso was better with that .372 OBP. I like Wieters upside more, though, so I'll say Wieters.

1B Lee v. Johnson - I'll go with Lee.

2B Roberts v. Rodriguez - Roberts.

3B Reynolds v. Longoria - Longoria by a mile.

SS Hardy v. Brignac - Actually kind of similar but I like Hardy's defense better, so Hardy.

LF Scott v. Damon - Scott.

CF Jones v. Upton - Kind of close, actually. Both have good power, Jones hits for a higher average but Upton walks more. Upton is a much better base-stealer and has had more success in the past, so I'll say Upton.

RF Markakis v. Zobrist - Markakis.

DH Guerrero v. Ramirez - Well, two HOF caliber players both on the decline. Guerrero by a little at this point.

Starting rotations: Guthrie/Matusz/Duchscherer/Bergesen/Arrieta v. Price/Shields/Niemann/Davis/Hellickson. I really like Tampa's rotation a lot. Tampa wins this one easily for me. I'm very high on Hellickson.

Bullpens. Tampa's bullpen has been decimated this offseason. Right now they are trotting out J.P. Howell and Kyle Farnsworth. Orioles win this one easily.

[crawjo]

Finally Baltimore v. Toronto

C Wieters v. Arencibia - Wieters

1B Lee v. Lind - Tough to say. Both were great in 2009 and not very good in 2010. I will go with Lind because he's entering his prime.

2B Roberts v. Hill - Hill is younger and coming off an off year. He doesn't get on base as well as Roberts but he has a lot more power. Roberts beats him on speed. This one is a tossup to me.

3B Reynolds v. Bautista - Remains to be seen what Bautista will do for an encore, but you have to give him the edge for now.

SS Hardy v. Escobar - Hardy

LF Scott v. Rivera - Scott

CF Jones v. Davis - Jones

RF Markakis v. Snider - Snider has big-time upside...he's just 23 years old. Markakis is the better player right now, but that could change fairly soon.

DH Guerrero v. Encarnacion - Guerrero by a bit, though Encarnacion isn't terrible.

Starting rotations: Guthrie/Matusz/Duchscherer/Bergesen/Arrieta v. Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Drabek/Litsch

Toronto wins this one, even with the loss of Marcum. If you take the teams away from it and just look at the age and the peripherals of the pitchers in question, you'd have to go with what Romero, Cecil, and Morrow did last year over our guys, and of course the ceiling for Drabek is very high.

Bullpens: I like Toronto's more. I think they have a lot of experience between Francisco, Dotel and Rauch. I think it's rather close but I give the edge to Toronto. Their pitching is just better than ours.

So overall, looking at the division, if the gun is placed against my head, I go with:

1. Boston - around 100 wins

2. New York - around 90 wins

3. Tampa Bay - around 85 wins

4. Toronto - around 81 wins

5. Baltimore - around 78 wins

I think our pitching is the worst in the division, overall. Our rotation, to me, is fifth, and our bullpen is fourth best, maybe third or even second if things break right for us. Offensively, we might be third best in the division depending on how Toronto's power surge from last year replays itself this year.

I'd have no problem with somebody else putting Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa in a different order, but I still believe that Boston and New York are ahead of the rest of the division. New York still has a great bullpen, a top shelf ace in Sabathia, and a lethal offense that led the league in runs scored last year. Their rotation problems may work themselves out over the season, with either one of their young arms stepping up or acquiring another pitcher via trade at some point.

[El Gordo]

If they played in another division, then absolutely. They're in the wrong division to be that good, though.

I don't see it that way. The MFY's have dropped to a 90 W team IMO while TAM and TOR have regressed as well. The O's have improved but not enoygh to be close to 90. I think Boston if healthy would have been a 95 W team last year.

[isestrex]

I don't see it that way. The MFY's have dropped to a 90 W team IMO while TAM and TOR have regressed as well. The O's have improved but not enoygh to be close to 90. I think Boston if healthy would have been a 95 W team last year.

You can't give everyone an increase in wins. Assuming that the Orioles and Blue Jays gain in the win column, mathematically the top teams must decrease in wins.

Of course the Red Sox could have won 95 wins. They were in a division with a pathetic BAL team and a struggling TOR. Assuming the Yankees and Rays take a small step backwards and the Orioles and Jays take big steps forward, it only makes sense that no team will be able to pull too far ahead of the pack.

The Sox could easily be .700 outside the division though...

[JTrea81]

I compared all the AL East teams after the offseasons they've had here.

The O's are still 5th in value, but they are a lot closer to Toronto and Tampa for the first time since AM took over.

[bsebllfan4life]

I don't want to realign the divisions. I'd rather beat the best then go to a weaker division and win. Tampa has shown you can do it with a moderate to low payroll. Division champs in 2 out of the last 3 years is not a fluke.

The Orioles are still far behind the Yankees. The Yanks are still stronger at most positions.

Montero v. Wieters, I guess Wieters wins but if Montero's bat plays out like it is supposed to...

Teixeira v. Lee, Teixeira wins

Cano v. Roberts, Cano wins

Rodriguez v. Reynolds, Rodriguez wins

Jeter v. Hardy, Jeter, even on the decline, still wins

Gardner v. Reimold/Pie, Gardner wins

Granderson v. Jones, This one is close and I think eventually Jones will be better, but right now it is practically a wash

Swisher v. Markakis, Going off last season, Swisher for sure.

Posada v. Scott, Scott wins that one.

Starting rotations: Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Nova, Mitre v. Guthrie, Matusz, Duchscherer, Bergesen, Arrieta....I'd give maybe a slight edge to Baltimore here because of better depth, but the Orioles don't have any starters like Sabathia, and Hughes is still probably better than Matusz, although that one is close. Burnett certainly has the stuff to be better than Duchscherer, although we'll see. The bottom of the Orioles rotation looks a little bit better, but our guys are quite unproven.

Bullpens...With Soriano and Rivera, that one is no contest.

The Orioles are still not competitive with the Yankees. Our offense just doesn't match up at all.

If you are looking at offense, I would say that:

Reynolds beats Arod,

Hardy beats Jeter,

Scott beats Gardner,

Vlad beats Posada

I'm not saying that we are better then the Yankees, but it is closer than most think it is. Depending on some things going well, we can be a better offensive team then the Yankees and other teams in the division this year. The entire division will come down to pitching. The offenses for all teams in the AL east is pretty even now. In order I would rate the offenses and pitching like this:

O - Red Sox, Yankees, O's, Rays, Jays

SP - Rays, Red Sox, O's, Yankees, Jays (I think the Yankees and O's are possible tied for SP, Yankees better at the TOR, O's better overall)

BP - Yankees, Red Sox, O's, Jays, Rays

JMHO...

[BRob411]

Finally Baltimore v. Toronto

C Wieters v. Arencibia - Wieters

1B Lee v. Lind - Tough to say. Both were great in 2009 and not very good in 2010. I will go with Lind because he's entering his prime.

2B Roberts v. Hill - Hill is younger and coming off an off year. He doesn't get on base as well as Roberts but he has a lot more power. Roberts beats him on speed. This one is a tossup to me.

3B Reynolds v. Bautista - Remains to be seen what Bautista will do for an encore, but you have to give him the edge for now.

SS Hardy v. Escobar - Hardy

LF Scott v. Rivera - Scott

CF Jones v. Davis - Jones

RF Markakis v. Snider - Snider has big-time upside...he's just 23 years old. Markakis is the better player right now, but that could change fairly soon.

DH Guerrero v. Encarnacion - Guerrero by a bit, though Encarnacion isn't terrible.

Starting rotations: Guthrie/Matusz/Duchscherer/Bergesen/Arrieta v. Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Drabek/Litsch

Toronto wins this one, even with the loss of Marcum. If you take the teams away from it and just look at the age and the peripherals of the pitchers in question, you'd have to go with what Romero, Cecil, and Morrow did last year over our guys, and of course the ceiling for Drabek is very high.

Bullpens: I like Toronto's more. I think they have a lot of experience between Francisco, Dotel and Rauch. I think it's rather close but I give the edge to Toronto. Their pitching is just better than ours.

So overall, looking at the division, if the gun is placed against my head, I go with:

1. Boston - around 100 wins

2. New York - around 90 wins

3. Tampa Bay - around 85 wins

4. Toronto - around 81 wins

5. Baltimore - around 78 wins

I think our pitching is the worst in the division, overall. Our rotation, to me, is fifth, and our bullpen is fourth best, maybe third or even second if things break right for us. Offensively, we might be third best in the division depending on how Toronto's power surge from last year replays itself this year.

I'd have no problem with somebody else putting Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa in a different order, but I still believe that Boston and New York are ahead of the rest of the division. New York still has a great bullpen, a top shelf ace in Sabathia, and a lethal offense that led the league in runs scored last year. Their rotation problems may work themselves out over the season, with either one of their young arms stepping up or acquiring another pitcher via trade at some point.

You can do your silly little comparisons all you want, you're not Ms. Cleo so this is overrated. That's why they play the game on the field my friend. The O's have the better manager by the way and it's not even close.

[crawjo]

If you are looking at offense, I would say that:

Reynolds beats Arod,

Hardy beats Jeter,

Scott beats Gardner,

Vlad beats Posada

I'm not saying that we are better then the Yankees, but it is closer than most think it is. Depending on some things going well, we can be a better offensive team then the Yankees and other teams in the division this year. The entire division will come down to pitching. The offenses for all teams in the AL east is pretty even now. In order I would rate the offenses and pitching like this:

O - Red Sox, Yankees, O's, Rays, Jays

SP - Rays, Red Sox, O's, Yankees, Jays (I think the Yankees and O's are possible tied for SP, Yankees better at the TOR, O's better overall)

BP - Yankees, Red Sox, O's, Jays, Rays

JMHO...

How on Earth does Reynolds beat A-Rod? Last year Reynolds was .198/.320/.433. Alex Rodriguez was .270/.341/.506. Do you really think Reynolds is going to improve that much and Rodriguez is going to decline that much?

Also, you are way underselling the Blue Jays pitching. If Brandon Morrow was on the Orioles we'd all be saying he was a dark-horse candidate for the Cy Young Award. Even with the walks, the guy has 10.9 K per nine innings pitched, and he's shown he can be far more dominant than any pitcher the Orioles have. Add Romero, Cecil and Drabek to the mix and you have a batch of young pitchers who have shown they are better than the Orioles young starters to this point. It's not even close, actually.

Everybody thinks the Blue Jays are going to take some major dive this season. Last year the Orioles finished 19 games behind Toronto in the standings. I certainly think that gap has narrowed or may even be gone at this point with the Orioles additions and the loss of Marcum and Wells for Toronto, but 19 games is a lot to make up. Also: Toronto with the worst offense in the division? Really? They hit 257 home runs last year and scored 132 more runs than Baltimore did. And they did that with down years from some of their young returning players, like Lind and Hill.

Finally, as far as comparing the Yankees and Orioles, when I first did my comparison we didn't have Vlad, so that shifts things a bit in our favor. Still, even with a healthy Roberts, Cano is a much more potent offensive force. Teixeira is also much better than Lee (and yes, A-Rod is much better than Reynolds). They have major offensive advantages at several positions. This Yankees team led the majors with 859 runs scored last year, and that was with injuries and down years from Teixeira and Rodriguez (and Jeter). The Orioles scored 613 runs. Say what you want about our improvements, but we are not an 850 run team. The only way that happens is if Lee and Reynolds return to their 2009 forms AND Wieters and Jones both take significant steps forward in their offensive development. I suppose it is theoretically possible, but it's not something you would take to the bank if you were a neutral observer evaluating this team.

[crawjo]

You can do your silly little comparisons all you want, you're not Ms. Cleo so this is overrated. That's why they play the game on the field my friend. The O's have the better manager by the way and it's not even close.

Compelling argument. Somebody earlier in the thread asked me to do the comparisons, so I did them. Be quiet.

[RandyM]

How on Earth does Reynolds beat A-Rod? Last year Reynolds was .198/.320/.433. Alex Rodriguez was .270/.341/.506. Do you really think Reynolds is going to improve that much and Rodriguez is going to decline that much?

Also, you are way underselling the Blue Jays pitching. If Brandon Morrow was on the Orioles we'd all be saying he was a dark-horse candidate for the Cy Young Award. Even with the walks, the guy has 10.9 K per nine innings pitched, and he's shown he can be far more dominant than any pitcher the Orioles have. Add Romero, Cecil and Drabek to the mix and you have a batch of young pitchers who have shown they are better than the Orioles young starters to this point. It's not even close, actually.

Everybody thinks the Blue Jays are going to take some major dive this season. Last year the Orioles finished 19 games behind Toronto in the standings. I certainly think that gap has narrowed or may even be gone at this point with the Orioles additions and the loss of Marcum and Wells for Toronto, but 19 games is a lot to make up. Also: Toronto with the worst offense in the division? Really? They hit 257 home runs last year and scored 132 more runs than Baltimore did. And they did that with down years from some of their young returning players, like Lind and Hill.

Finally, as far as comparing the Yankees and Orioles, when I first did my comparison we didn't have Vlad, so that shifts things a bit in our favor. Still, even with a healthy Roberts, Cano is a much more potent offensive force. Teixeira is also much better than Lee (and yes, A-Rod is much better than Reynolds). They have major offensive advantages at several positions. This Yankees team led the majors with 859 runs scored last year, and that was with injuries and down years from Teixeira and Rodriguez (and Jeter). The Orioles scored 613 runs. Say what you want about our improvements, but we are not an 850 run team. The only way that happens is if Lee and Reynolds return to their 2009 forms AND Wieters and Jones both take significant steps forward in their offensive development. I suppose it is theoretically possible, but it's not something you would take to the bank if you were a neutral observer evaluating this team.

Very good point made there.

I agree with your analysis. NYY and Bos are the top 2 levels with TAM being that 1B. The O's are in the 75-83 range depending on how things go.

[srock]

I don't want to realign the divisions. I'd rather beat the best then go to a weaker division and win. Tampa has shown you can do it with a moderate to low payroll. Division champs in 2 out of the last 3 years is not a fluke.

The Orioles are still far behind the Yankees. The Yanks are still stronger at most positions.

Montero v. Wieters, I guess Wieters wins but if Montero's bat plays out like it is supposed to...

Teixeira v. Lee, Teixeira wins

Cano v. Roberts, Cano wins

Rodriguez v. Reynolds, Rodriguez wins

Jeter v. Hardy, Jeter, even on the decline, still wins

Gardner v. Reimold/Pie, Gardner wins

Granderson v. Jones, This one is close and I think eventually Jones will be better, but right now it is practically a wash

Swisher v. Markakis, Going off last season, Swisher for sure.

Posada v. Scott, Scott wins that one.

Starting rotations: Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Nova, Mitre v. Guthrie, Matusz, Duchscherer, Bergesen, Arrieta....I'd give maybe a slight edge to Baltimore here because of better depth, but the Orioles don't have any starters like Sabathia, and Hughes is still probably better than Matusz, although that one is close. Burnett certainly has the stuff to be better than Duchscherer, although we'll see. The bottom of the Orioles rotation looks a little bit better, but our guys are quite unproven.

Bullpens...With Soriano and Rivera, that one is no contest.

The Orioles are still not competitive with the Yankees. Our offense just doesn't match up at all.

I'm going to go ahead and call Shenanigans on a few of these:

Wieters is a huge win over Montero. Defense alone and time handling these pitchers weight heavily for a catcher. Both have significant offensive upside and Wieters has enough ML at bats to make him more likely to be better in 2011.

Hardy is better then Jeter on paper at this point. Defense being the major distinguishing factor, but also power Jeter is slap hitter at this point and deteriorating quickly. But Hardy's health risk does keep it from being a slam dunk win.

Those two are the big ones.

Statistically Jones and Granderson have been the same player the last 2 years. But Jones is coming into his prime, Granderson is leaving his. I'd rather have Jones, but in 2011 they are likely to close in production.

Gardner is no sure thing to be better then Pie/Reimold/Vlad. He is more likely to be, but its a position the Orioles could win.

MFY pitching staff is talented but lacks depth is very top heavy. It is a Sabathia injury away from a disaster. I prefer our young pitchers to their young pitchers.

[crawjo]

I'm going to go ahead and call Shenanigans on a few of these:

Wieters is a huge win over Montero. Defense alone and time handling these pitchers weight heavily for a catcher. Both have significant offensive upside and Wieters has enough ML at bats to make him more likely to be better in 2011.

Hardy is better then Jeter on paper at this point. Defense being the major distinguishing factor, but also power Jeter is slap hitter at this point and deteriorating quickly. But Hardy's health risk does keep it from being a slam dunk win.

Those two are the big ones.

Statistically Jones and Granderson have been the same player the last 2 years. But Jones is coming into his prime, Granderson is leaving his. I'd rather have Jones, but in 2011 they are likely to close in production.

Gardner is no sure thing to be better then Pie/Reimold/Vlad. He is more likely to be, but its a position the Orioles could win.

MFY pitching staff is talented but lacks depth is very top heavy. It is a Sabathia injury away from a disaster. I prefer our young pitchers to their young pitchers.

Well I did take Wieters there, I was just noting that Montero put up monster numbers in the minors last year, at a very young age. His defense will not be good but he could be putting up Buster Posey offensive numbers this year and if he's doing that and Wieters does not step up his offensive game, I'd rather have Montero. All things equal I pick Wieters, but it could easily go the other way.

With Jeter the question is whether the offensive decline he showed last year is permanent, or if he is going to rebound at all this year. Personally I think he rebounds. I don't expect him to put up his 2009 numbers, but I will be surprised if he bats well below .300 again. I see something like .305/.360/.410. If he does that I think he gets the edge over Hardy. I admit its debatable, but if 2011 were the only factor, I bet you most teams would rather have Jeter than Hardy as their everyday SS.

In left, I did that before we got Vlad. Gardner v. Scott is a totally different can of worms than Gardner v. Reimold/Pie. Gardner is 27 years old and I don't think he's suddenly going to lose his skill at getting on base or stealing bases. The guy's OBP last year was .383. He stole 47 bases and he won the Fielding Bible award for his defense in LF. That is to say, very smart people think he's the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball. If he had been on the Orioles last year he could have been our second most valuable player, after Scott. He should be New York's leadoff hitter; Jeter should bat ninth. But that's another discussion.

Regarding the rotations, Sabathia is obviously head and shoulders above anything the Orioles have. He's been very consistent and healthy for the past five seasons. At 30 years old, he's as solid a bet to repeat past performance as you will find among AL pitchers. The rest of the Yankees rotation IS shaky, but then, so is the O's: After you get past Matusz and Guthrie, you have a bunch of unproven young arms and an oft-injured starter in Duchscherer. Therefore I don't really see any reason to give the edge to Baltimore. I don't think the rotation is a huge advantage for New York, but with C.C. in there you have to put them ahead. And with Soriano and Rivera at the back of their bullpen, NY's pen is clearly superior to ours. I think it would be quite the upset if Baltimore posted a team ERA lower than New York's this season.