Are the Orioles a Top 5 team?

[SilentJames]

The Yankees still have a ton of talent.

They are still the 2nd best team on paper.

Not with their rotation, Texas and Tampa are better.

[Sports Guy]

No.

As I pointed out today, we can expect to see 8 or 9 teams 500 or better. We can expect to see 2-3 teams win 70 or less and we can expect the other 2-4 teams to finish with 73-80 wins.

Right now, its very likely that Bos, NY, Det, Chi, Minn and Texas are 500 or better.

The Orioles should fall in the 75-85 win range...Which will be good for 6th-10th best in the league.

[davearm]

In no particular order...

Teams I'd put ahead of BAL:

BOS

TEX

NYY

TAM

CHW

MIN

DET

Teams I'd put on par with BAL:

OAK

TOR

ANA

Teams I'd put below BAL:

KCC

SEA

CLE

[SilentJames]

No.

As I pointed out today, we can expect to see 8 or 9 teams 500 or better. We can expect to see 2-3 teams win 70 or less and we can expect the other 2-4 teams to finish with 73-80 wins.

Right now, its very likely that Bos, NY, Det, Chi, Minn and Texas are 500 or better.

The Orioles should fall in the 75-85 win range...Which will be good for 6th-10th best in the league.

Exactly. But, in all fairness, that could put them on the periphery of the WC hunt and make for some fun baseball in August/ Sept. for a change.

[Sports Guy]

Not with their rotation, Texas and Tampa are better.

Way too many people are really underrating the Yanks.

I agree that they could fall back some but falling back for them would still have them in the 87-90 win range.

[Sports Guy]

In no particular order...

Teams I'd put ahead of BAL:

BOS

TEX

NYY

TAM

CHW

MIN

DET

Teams I'd put on par with BAL:

OAK

TOR

ANA

Teams I'd put below BAL:

KCC

SEA

CLE

Totally agree with this.

[Robbie]

Obviously I hope I'm wrong, but I have a feeling a lot of you are going to be disappointed.

[Carroll County]

It all comes down to our starting pitching and health. If we have overachievement throughout the rotation and good health throughout the lineup, we should be in contention for a wildcard. There's a lot of IF in that statement, but I honestly believe that we're finally in a situation where IF everything goes right, we're contenders. Unfortunately, I'm fairly certain that everything won't go right.

Roberts, Lee, Vlad, Hardy, Pie, Koji, Duchscherer, Accardo, Berken are likely to miss some time to injury. Bergesen, Arrieta, and Tillman are all likely to have ERAs closer to 5 than 4. Markakis, Reynolds, and Wieters need to be .800+ OPS guys.

I realize you can go through any team and make similar statements, however the good teams generally have anywhere from 2 to 5 players who are studs and have high likelihood to post OPSs at or above .850 or post ERAs below 3.50. We don't really have any of those players.

[JTrea81]

Way too many people are really underrating the Yanks.

I agree that they could fall back some but falling back for them would still have them in the 87-90 win range.

Agreed, Boston is king of this division, but the Yankees aren't too far behind.

This team is a ton better than it was and will be right there with the Rays and Jays IMO, but a lot will have to go right for us to be a top 5 team.

That doesn't mean it can't happen, just that the odds are against us.

But that's why they play the games...

[Scrat1]

This isn't entirely on topic, but I'm not convinced the Red Sox are going to be the absolute powerhouse that people seem to think. On paper, they're almost undoubtedly the best team in baseball, and they're certainly better than the Orioles. But they also have more question marks than people are acknowledging.

Here's a few:

1. Youkilis moving across the diamond to third. Here at the OH we're doing a good bit of handwringing (myself included) about Scott moving back to the field, while hardly anyone is batting an eye about Youkilis switching positions. Youkilis isn't as young as he was. He certainly is not going to be Beltre out there, and the more physically demanding position could take a toll on his offensive numbers.

2. Pedroia's foot. Some recent reports are suggesting his recovery from foot surgery has not been smooth and there could be lingering effects in the season. Since he spent most of the offseason struggling with the injury, how far behind will he be in his workout routine?

3. J.D. Drew continues to be J.D. Drew.

4. Which versions of Beckett, Dice-K, and to a lesser extent, Lackey, show up? I have to think Beckett will bounce back to some degree, but I don't think it will make up for the inevitable regression of Buchholz.

This isn't to say they have more question marks than the Orioles, only that the people penciling them in for 95-100 wins may be overestimating them.

[SilentJames]

Way too many people are really underrating the Yanks.

I agree that they could fall back some but falling back for them would still have them in the 87-90 win range.

I'll admit that my desire to see them fall is flavored with personal disgust, but I genuinely believe that this is the year some of their key players show their age.

Though I know this is something that many of us have been waiting to see for what seems like a decade now. Even then I put them just outside of the top 5 in the 6 spot. I thikn it is entirely reasonable that there could be five teams in the AL that have better records than the Yankees at the end of the year.

[Brendan25]

The AL West most likely is not going to have a wild card team come out of their division barring something I don't see.

The AL East, in my opinion, is the weakest it has been in probably 5 years. The Rays have taken a step back. The Yankees have taken a step back. I think the division is the Red Sox to run away with and then 2nd place is up for grabs. In my opinion the most likely scenario is that the wild card comes out of the Central this season with the Tigers, Sox, and Twins all having very good teams, but I do think the O's are going to be able to compete and be a wild card contender for much of the season.

[McLovin]

In no particular order...

Teams I'd put ahead of BAL:

BOS

TEX

NYY

TAM

CHW

MIN

DET

Teams I'd put on par with BAL:

OAK

TOR

ANA

Teams I'd put below BAL:

KCC

SEA

CLE

This is pretty much the reality. Boston, New York, and Tampa are ahead of the O's. Toronto and Baltimore are a push. We could still finish in last place.

Toronto won 85 games last year and hit 251 home runs - and barely sniffed contention.

[Brendan25]

This is pretty much the reality. Boston, New York, and Tampa are ahead of the O's. Toronto and Baltimore are a push. We could still finish in last place.

Toronto won 85 games last year and hit 251 home runs - and barely sniffed contention.

If the Rays finish ahead of the Orioles this year I would be shocked beyond shock.

[SilentJames]

This is pretty much the reality. Boston, New York, and Tampa are ahead of the O's. Toronto and Baltimore are a push. We could still finish in last place.

Toronto won 85 games last year and hit 251 home runs - and barely sniffed contention.

They barely sniffed contention because outside of the HR's they weren't a very good team. They were among the league's worst in OBP and BA. And their pitching staff was actually not much better than league average.

They had a sub-500 record against all teams not named the Orioles last year as well.

The Jays will be in last place this year.