Are the Orioles a Top 5 team?

[Sports Guy]

They barely sniffed contention because outside of the HR's they weren't a very good team. They were among the league's worst in OBP and BA. And their pitching staff was actually not much better than league average.

They had a sub-500 record against all teams not named the Orioles last year as well.

The Jays will be in last place this year.

What does this have to do with anything?

I am sure his point was that 85 wins didn't sniff contention and that they weren't close to a legit top 5 team even with 85 wins.

[Bradysburns]

Way too many people are really underrating the Yanks.

I agree that they could fall back some but falling back for them would still have them in the 87-90 win range.

Yes, the Yankees still have outrageous talent at all the "money" spots: TOR pitching, MOO bats. Their depth doesn't appear to be as good this year as in years past. But they're still the yankees, and they still have a ton of talent, even if that talent pool is a little top-heavy.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, the Yankees still have outrageous talent at all the "money" spots: TOR pitching, MOO bats. Their depth doesn't appear to be as good this year as in years past. But they're still the yankees, and they still have a ton of talent, even if that talent pool is a little top-heavy.

And they have a good pen which can shorten games and they have a very good farm system, which will help them land neccassary parts.

They have some young pitching which could help them this year and don't underestimate the value of them just getting a 4.75-5.1 ERA out of their 4th and 5th starters if they can eat innings.

If they got even what Millwood gave us last year, they would be fine because their offense will score a ton of runs.

The Yankees will be in trouble if Hughes and/or Burnett don't have good years.

People bring up what Hughes did in the second half last year but remember, this is a guy who didn't throw a lot of innings the year before, so its not unreasonable to think he could wear down some in the second half.

Now, the other side to that is did the Yankees pitch him too much last year and will he have some arm injuries this year? Its very possible that he could spend some significant time on the DL this year and if that were to happen, the Yankees would be in trouble.

But if they can get 75+ starts from AJ, Hughes and CC, they should be fine.

[Brendan25]

And they have a good pen which can shorten games and they have a very good farm system, which will help them land neccassary parts.

They have some young pitching which could help them this year and don't underestimate the value of them just getting a 4.75-5.1 ERA out of their 4th and 5th starters if they can eat innings.

If they got even what Millwood gave us last year, they would be fine because their offense will score a ton of runs.

The Yankees will be in trouble if Hughes and/or Burnett don't have good years.

People bring up what Hughes did in the second half last year but remember, this is a guy who didn't throw a lot of innings the year before, so its not unreasonable to think he could wear down some in the second half.

Now, the other side to that is did the Yankees pitch him too much last year and will he have some arm injuries this year? Its very possible that he could spend some significant time on the DL this year and if that were to happen, the Yankees would be in trouble.

But if they can get 75+ starts from AJ, Hughes and CC, they should be fine.

If the Yankees do not make a trade between now and the deadline, they are not a playoff team, and could easily be surpassed in the standings by the Orioles.

Now I do not eliminate them from acquiring someone like a Fausto Carmona, but if they do not, the team is very average.

[Sports Guy]

If the Yankees do not make a trade between now and the deadline, they are not a playoff team, and could easily be surpassed in the standings by the Orioles.

Now I do not eliminate them from acquiring someone like a Fausto Carmona, but if they do not, the team is very average.

How are you defining average?

[McLovin]

They were among the league's worst in OBP and BA. And their pitching staff was actually not much better than league average.

And despite the hype and euphoria of the recent additions, the O's could be tracking to the exact same profile.

Everyone wants to wrap 'buts' around Hardy, Lee, and Reynold's performance from last year, but their season's could easily be repeated. And Vlad will decline at some point, if it didn't happen already starting last July.

I'm excited, sure. But people need to calm WAY down.

[Say O!]

I'm not sure how to rank them one by one, but here's how I'd group them, talent wise.

Tier 1

Boston

New York

Tampa

Texas

Tier 2

Minnesota

Detroit

Chicago

Tier 3

Baltimore

Los Angeles

Oakland

Toronto

Tier 4

Seattle

Cleveland

Kansas City

That Minnesota/Detroit/Chicago race is really hard for me to call right now.

I can see the O's rising up the ranks quickly during the season, but they have to prove it.

Like your tiering system. SEA, CLE, KCR are clearly at the bottom and it's a steep drop between tier 3 and 4.

I would move TEX into tier 2 due to questions about their starting rotation (yes, the NYY perhaps have just as many about SP, but TEX does not have a true number 1 like CC Sabathia).

[Going Underground]

The whole season depends on if the young arms mature. If they show marked improvement,O's are a top seven team. If they have injuries and most of the pitchers don't progess to the next level.we are a bottom tier team. I think right now we are about seventh or eighth. It' all quesswork till we start playing some ball.

[Sports Guy]

And despite the hype and euphoria of the recent additions, the O's could be tracking to the exact same profile.

Everyone wants to wrap 'buts' around Hardy, Lee, and Reynold's performance from last year, but their season's could easily be repeated. And Vlad will decline at some point, if it didn't happen already starting last July.

I'm excited, sure. But people need to calm WAY down.

Yep....There is a lot of reason to be excited and the Orioles should be way better than they have been.

However, every offseason we see threads like this. We get polls about can they be WC contenders...We see offseason grades of A's and B's, etc...

And every year, we come away disappointed.

I get it..This year is different...We have more talent. Ok, I agree. But that talent still needs to prove it. The young guys have to start taking that next step. The vets need to have bounce back years, sustain what they did or barely fall off from last year.

A lot needs to happen for things to go right this year.

[SilentJames]

What does this have to do with anything?

I am sure his point was that 85 wins didn't sniff contention and that they weren't close to a legit top 5 team even with 85 wins.

I inferred his post to mean, look how good the Jays were and THEY could only win 85 games, because the division is so hard.

I was just pointing out that they weren't that good to start with.

[Sports Guy]

I inferred his post to mean, look how good the Jays were and THEY could only win 85 games, because the division is so hard.

I was just pointing out that they weren't that good to start with.

They were good enough to win 85 games in a tough division and a tough AL all around.

If the Orioles win 85 games this year, you will be praising them and wanting Buck to win the MOY and AM to get exec of the year.

[MikeAD]

And despite the hype and euphoria of the recent additions, the O's could be tracking to the exact same profile.

Everyone wants to wrap 'buts' around Hardy, Lee, and Reynold's performance from last year, but their season's could easily be repeated. And Vlad will decline at some point, if it didn't happen already starting last July.

I'm excited, sure. But people need to calm WAY down.

So very true.

We now have serviceable players around the infield and i the outfield. Thats the first time we've had that in a while, maybe since 2004, but really longer than that.

But top 5? Top 10? Theres a chance we finish that way, like theres a chance any other team can make a run, and our chances are greater than they were last year.

It is nice to have good players at every position, ones that could be on other teams ML rosters, but we don't have the talent of the Yankees or the Red Sox, Rangers, and so on and so forth. Hell I might take the Yankees/Red Sox' infields over our lineup. Put in generic players at the 3 outfield spots and call it a day.

[SilentJames]

They were good enough to win 85 games in a tough division and a tough AL all around.

If the Orioles win 85 games this year, you will be praising them and wanting Buck to win the MOY and AM to get exec of the year.

If they are a complete all around team then yes. But the only reason the Jays won 85 games was the obscene HR numbers which are not likely to repeat this year and therefore they should crash back to Earth.

Were they good enough to win 85 games? Sure, but I inferred a belief they could sustain that from his post. That is what I was commenting on.

[SilentJames]

And despite the hype and euphoria of the recent additions, the O's could be tracking to the exact same profile.

Everyone wants to wrap 'buts' around Hardy, Lee, and Reynold's performance from last year, but their season's could easily be repeated. And Vlad will decline at some point, if it didn't happen already starting last July.

I'm excited, sure. But people need to calm WAY down.

Indeed, I mean I don't think the Orioles are challenging for the playoffs or anything. In my other thread I have the Orioles in that middle tier of teams that should be over .500 and maybe on the periphery of the wild card discussion, but thats it.

You are right, that could happen. But I think it is much more likely that the Orioles improve than the Jays challenge the all-time team-HR total again.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Yes, the Yankees still have outrageous talent at all the "money" spots: TOR pitching, MOO bats. Their depth doesn't appear to be as good this year as in years past. But they're still the yankees, and they still have a ton of talent, even if that talent pool is a little top-heavy.

A win from your ace doesn't count any more than a win from the #4 or #5 guy. Sabathia still pitches just every fifth day, and even if you buy that Hughes is for real, they're still just two deep in quality starters. Their #3 is a guy who pitched like a #5 last year and whose numbers over the past three seasons suggest that he is in a decline from which there will be no meaningful recovery.

Yes, the lineup is still scary good, but cracks are starting to appear there too. Apart from Jeter and Posada, I would be worried about ARod if I were a Yankees' fan. Everybody seems to assume that he will be a superior player for the next three or four years, but his PED history suggests that his decline phase could be more abrupt than that.

(EDIT: I think it's funny as hell that when I use the terms "ARod" and "PED" in a message, the targeted ad on this page all of a sudden produces an ad for "Anabolic Prescription/ Powerful Hormone Stack").