Fangraphs doesn't get the Vlad move

[NewMarketSean]

I go back to the Sosa trade. It didn't work out but the move alone didn't cripple the Orioles. The same thing can be applied here.

[NCRaven]

There are a lot of good points in this analysis. The points all add up to we should not have added Vlad regardless of the price. He just isn't likely to help us that much in 2011 and he hurts our future development...

3-Reimold is likely to put up numbers very similar to Vlad.

In what universe? I'm a Reimold fan, but give me a break. It isn't impossible, but there's no way that I'd bet on Reimold having numbers as good as Vlad's this year, even if Reimold bounces back and Vlad declines.

[Slappy]

3-Reimold is likely to put up numbers very similar to Vlad.

Along these lines of thinking, why shouldn't Matusz put up numbers very similar to Cliff Lee?

[El Gordo]

The problem with the stat oriented view of the Vlad signing, is that they don't recognize the idea of lineup protection. If you don't, then Vlad's 2 W increase doesn't seem worth it. But whether or not protection exhists, baseball people think it does. And they make adjustments accordingly. When Sosa hit behind Tejada, it took until June for pitchers to realize he was done and start pitching around Miggi. Vlad is percieved to be a dangerous hitter. As long as this is so, guys hitting in front of him will see better pitches. It's hard to put a value on that, but I agree with Frobby, that as long as Vlad is still percieved as dangerous, his presence in the lineup will have a snowball effect. He doesn't have to put up a constent .850+ OPS starting in April, for that to be the case.

[Scrat1]

I do want to add, though, that if Vlad struggles in spring training and Reimold is lighting the world on fire, I may have to go out and buy a mouthguard so I won't grind my teeth into dust at night.

[jiminnj]

In what universe? I'm a Reimold fan, but give me a break. It isn't impossible, but there's no way that I'd bet on Reimold having numbers as good as Vlad's this year, even if Reimold bounces back and Vlad declines.

Vlad's OPS since 2002 are

2002....1.010

2003....1.012

2004......989

2005......959

2006......934

2007......950

2008......886

2009......794

2010......841

They is a steady decline with a bounce, but there is a clear pattern of decline over 7 years.

Graph it out, it looks like about a .800 OPS this year this year for Vlad.

Reimold in 2009 put up a .831 OPS. He was never 100% last year, and now he is healthy.

With those numbers there is a very reasonable possibility that Reimold could produce better than Vlad this year.

You look at those numbers and there is a clear possibility that Reimold could put up better numbers than Vlad this year.

[LookitsPuck]

His article assumes a healthy, productive Reimold or a healthy, consistent Pie. Both of which are not locks by any stretch.

Reimold showed nothing last year aside from patience. Was that off the field issues and/or healing from his Achilles injury or something more? That's a huge question mark, and assuming Reimold will (if given the chance) have an as productive season as Vladimir Guerrero is incredibly ignorant.

Pie is one of my favourite players, but you're talking about someone that is still learning the position as well as how to hit. He's inconsistent. And injury laden. When he's healthy, he can rake and he can field. But he hasn't put together a full, consistent season without being injured for extended periods.

That said: Reimold is atrocious in LF. Just downright terrible. I've said this before, but he makes Pat Burrell look like Carl Crawford.

So, what do you do in this case to give your team the best chance to win? You move Scott to LF, in which he is an average defensive player. And you put Vlad at DH. This serves two purposes:

1. It gives you an immediate offensive threat in the lineup from the beginning of the season without relying on question marks like Felix Pie and [even larger so] Nolan Reimold.

2. It gives you depth so that guys like Reimold can go to the minors and at least string together some decent starts. You know, being which he totally stunk it up last year both in the majors and minors.

[statman]

What is there not to get? All you had to do last year was watch this team for a few games to know that we couldn't hit. We were 27th in the league in runs scored! So what did we do to combat the issue? We added a proven middle of the order bat...who is especially good against lefties. What do you know? Every team in our division has lefty aces: Price, Lester, Sabathia, Romero...It fits perfectly. There is more to evaluating a team than WAR calculations!!:cussing:

[eddie83]

Vlad's OPS since 2002 are

2002....1.010

2003....1.012

2004......989

2005......959

2006......934

2007......950

2008......886

2009......794

2010......841

They is a steady decline with a bounce, but there is a clear pattern of decline over 7 years.

Graph it out, it looks like about a .800 OPS this year this year for Vlad.

Reimold in 2009 put up a .831 OPS. He was never 100% last year, and now he is healthy.

With those numbers there is a very reasonable possibility that Reimold could produce better than Vlad this year.

You look at those numbers and there is a clear possibility that Reimold could put up better numbers than Vlad this year.

I like Nolan but one player has had over a decade of great production and a good year last year and the other player has had one good year and not even a full one at that.

I almost laughed when the author said that Luke Scott is a better hitter than Vlad. Vlad has the entire roster brimming with excitement which can't be measured statistically no matter how hard people try.

[tntoriole]

And do we really know what the "offer on the table" actually was? Rumors, sources, etc. all said that it was in the 3-5 million range....but, maybe the offer was for 5million for 2011 and deferred money was being negotiated all along? Maybe it was Vlad that was still waiting for a better offer and we didn't "blink" ....either way, we won't know for sure unless AM comes out with the specifics regarding what offer was on the table when (which he will not do, of course).

With the amount of dollars reportedly deferred (3 million according to the Sun) this makes a lot more sense....and I, for one, am looking forward to Reynolds and Guerrero crushing more than a few Yankee and Red Sox pitches deep into the night at Camden Yards this summer.

[Babypowder]

I like Nolan but one player has had over a decade of great production and a good year last year and the other player has had one good year and not even a full one at that.

I almost laughed when the author said that Luke Scott is a better hitter than Vlad. Vlad has the entire roster brimming with excitement which can't be measured statistically no matter how hard people try.

Clearly Vlad has had a better career, which is mainly where his reputation stems from. At this point in their careers however, Scott has been a better hitter two years in a row.

[Hank Scorpio]

Clearly Vlad has had a better career, which is mainly where his reputation stems from. At this point in their careers however, Scott has been a better hitter two years in row.

...and will most likely be a better hitter this year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Clearly Vlad has had a better career, which is mainly where his reputation stems from. At this point in their careers however, Scott has been a better hitter two years in a row.

The level of expectation for Vlad has become so high that even Vlad at his best would be a letdown for some. And Vlad 2011 will not be within shouting distance of what he used to be.

An .825 OPS will be a crushing disappointment for some.

[eddie83]

Clearly Vlad has had a better career, which is mainly where his reputation stems from. At this point in their careers however, Scott has been a better hitter two years in a row.

Depends of your definition. I am more old school when it comes to numbers. I look at Vlad's run production compared to Scott's and Vlad is superior. He is a much better hitter with men on base and RISP than Luke. I think a middle of the order hitter's job is to drive in runs, that is why they get paid the big money. Scott was better than Vlad two years ago but last year it wasn't even close. I have a heck of alot more faith with a guy like Vlad up in a big spot than Luke. I bet a pitcher would feel the same way.

[Hank Scorpio]

The level of expectation for Vlad has become so high that even Vlad at his best would be a letdown for some. And Vlad 2011 will not be within shouting distance of what he used to be.

An .825 OPS will be a crushing disappointment for some.

Yup.... very simply, it's mostly name recognition.

The average fan knows Vlad's reputation and the fact that he once singled on a ball in the dirt that bounced. These people didn't watch Vlad's second half last year nor do they recognize that a guy like Scott is in fact a better hitter than Guerrero at present. (Or has been for a few years now.)

They've seen Luke Scott for a few years now. He's a known commodity.

It's debatable that the Orioles are a better team with Vlad at DH and Scott in LF than they would be with Scott at DH and Reimold/Pie in LF.