Fangraphs doesn't get the Vlad move

[Hank Scorpio]

Depends of your definition. I am more old school when it comes to numbers. I look at Vlad's run production compared to Scott's and Vlad is superior. He is a much better hitter with men on base and RISP than Luke. I think a middle of the order hitter's job is to drive in runs, that is why they get paid the big money. Scott was better than Vlad two years ago but last year it wasn't even close. I have a heck of alot more faith with a guy like Vlad up in a big spot than Luke. I bet a pitcher would feel the same way.

If you put Luke Scott in Texas' lineup last year, his numbers would look significantly different.

You can't drive in runs with nobody on base.

[Palmoripken]

Yup.... very simply, it's mostly name recognition.

The average fan knows Vlad's reputation and the fact that he once singled on a ball in the dirt that bounced. These people didn't watch Vlad's second half last year nor do they recognize that a guy like Scott is in fact a better hitter than Guerrero at present. (Or has been for a few years now.)

They've seen Luke Scott for a few years now. He's a known commodity.

It's debatable that the Orioles are a better team with Vlad at DH and Scott in LF than they would be with Scott at DH and Reimold/Pie in LF.

Agree, I think average fan is also looking at Vlad's non-saber stats from last year (29 homers and 116 RBIs) appears great to the average fan, it of course doesn't tell the full story. I am happy we got the guy but this isn't a Frank Robinson in 1966 move. Now of course it would be nice if Vlad had a great year and carried us to the playoffs but I agree that right now Scott is the better hitter.

[Scrat1]

If I had to choose between Vlad or Reimold, I'd choose Vlad no question. I still think Reimold is our future DH. What I'm telling myself is that someone will inevitably get injured and that Pie and Reimold will get their shot. These sort of roster logjams cause a lot of handwringing at the beginning of the season (remember Wigginton last year?) but we'll appreciate the depth later on.

Sorry if some of my posts seem to be redundant. I think I'm typing half of this stuff out of self-consolation.

[jiminnj]

The level of expectation for Vlad has become so high that even Vlad at his best would be a letdown for some. And Vlad 2011 will not be within shouting distance of what he used to be.

An .825 OPS will be a crushing disappointment for some.

Bingo! Someone has it right. So many people are looking at his career numbers and making predictions from them. He is no longer that player. Collapse is a real possibility too.

[jiminnj]

In what universe? I'm a Reimold fan, but give me a break. It isn't impossible, but there's no way that I'd bet on Reimold having numbers as good as Vlad's this year, even if Reimold bounces back and Vlad declines.

One thing I would like to add to my earlier comments is that in 2009 Reimold did put up better numbers than Vlad.

Vlad was a great player. First ballot HOF in my book. He no longer is that player.

[eddie83]

If you put Luke Scott in Texas' lineup last year, his numbers would look significantly different.

You can't drive in runs with nobody on base.

Scott drove in 43 runs last year in 112 AB's and 137 PA's with RISP. Vlad drove in 76 in 169 AB's and 188 PA's. Vlad's ratio is much better. Vlad hit .320 with an .840 OPS in those spots and Luke hit .214 with a .682 OPS.

[Bradysburns]

The level of expectation for Vlad has become so high that even Vlad at his best would be a letdown for some. And Vlad 2011 will not be within shouting distance of what he used to be.

An .825 OPS will be a crushing disappointment for some.

Likewise, that same .825 OPS will strike others as yet another fluky year for a guy who's over the hill... and who has actually cost every team he's played for 32 games per season because he runs like Granpa Munster.

[Bradysburns]

Bingo! Someone has it right. So many people are looking at his career numbers and making predictions from them. He is no longer that player. Collapse is a real possibility too.

Yeah, so is a monkey flying out of my butt.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Likewise, that same .825 OPS will strike others as yet another fluky year for a guy who's over the hill... and who has actually cost every team he's played for 32 games per season because he runs like Granpa Munster.

Well, for the record, .825 is about what I expect. So if it happens, I won't consider it a fluke. There's nothing wrong with .825. It just won't carry a team, it won't scare pitchers, it's not true MOO production, and it's not worth doing backflips over.

[connja]

Vlad in Baltimore

So Matt Klaassen doesn't like the Vlad move. This guy seems down on the O's.

But I tend to agree with his analysis in the sense that we're not adding a whole lot of wins to this team. I think we could get equal value out of what we had from some other guys. Which seems to be his main point. Though this does seem dependent on Reimold jumping back to past value that we all know he might not get to. But I tend to agree with him that Vlad for his dollars doesn't make sense.

If we're going to get the value from ticket sales or fan support, I think that's something Saber guys like Matt aren't thinking about and in that case I'd say this was a great move. But the motives seem skeptical to me. And I've seen others like Hank say that he thought this move smacks of PA. In general that does concern me.

Thought this would be a good read for people who haven't seen it. And a good write up about the situation.

The motive is that this team has a legitimate chance to win and they are looking to improve those chances. FOr the life of me I can't understand why anyone who has been a fan of this team for the last 13 years could be upset with this 1 year deal.

[statman]

The level of expectation for Vlad has become so high that even Vlad at his best would be a letdown for some. And Vlad 2011 will not be within shouting distance of what he used to be.

An .825 OPS will be a crushing disappointment for some.

I can count on 1 finger the number of Orioles in 2010 that had an .825+ OPS. We don't have the pitching staff to account for that kind of offensive mediocrity. The Rays got by last year with just Crawford and Longoria over .825, BUT they also had the second best team ERA in the American League (we were the second WORST). To put that into perspective, the Yankees were a lowly seventh in the AL in terms of team ERA, but they had FIVE regular starters with an .825+ OPS. This is the route the Orioles are trying to go.

Building a major league roster is a process of "give and take"...someone in the O's front office clearly noticed that our pitching staff wasn't up to snuff so they compensated with offense. Personally, I don't see how anyone can have an issue with this.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I can count on 1 finger the number of Orioles in 2010 that had an .825+ OPS. We don't have the pitching staff to account for that kind of offensive mediocrity. The Rays got by last year with just Crawford and Longoria over .825, BUT they also had the second best team ERA in the American League (we were the second WORST). To put that into perspective, the Yankees were a lowly seventh in the AL in terms of team ERA, but they had FIVE regular starters with an .825+ OPS. This is the route the Orioles are trying to go.

Building a major league roster is a process of "give and take"...someone in the O's front office clearly noticed that our pitching staff wasn't up to snuff so they compensated with offense. Personally, I don't see how anyone can have an issue with this.

It's really not so much about whether an .825 OPS would have been valuable last year (obviously it would have) but about the sky-high and unrealistic expectations for Vlad that I see expressed here.

[JTrea81]

Yup.... very simply, it's mostly name recognition.

The average fan knows Vlad's reputation and the fact that he once singled on a ball in the dirt that bounced. These people didn't watch Vlad's second half last year nor do they recognize that a guy like Scott is in fact a better hitter than Guerrero at present. (Or has been for a few years now.)

They've seen Luke Scott for a few years now. He's a known commodity.

It's debatable that the Orioles are a better team with Vlad at DH and Scott in LF than they would be with Scott at DH and Reimold/Pie in LF.

If Vlad is ready to drop off a cliff, then why did he put up an .842 OPS in September?

He had two poor months.

Also it's interesting to see all the people who think Vlad is going to drop off a cliff say boo about Derrek Lee who perfomed worse than Vlad and like Roberts has a herniated disc in his back.

[DrungoHazewood]

If Vlad is ready to drop off a cliff, then why did he put up an .842 OPS in September?

He had two poor months.

Also it's interesting to see all the people who think Vlad is going to drop off a cliff say boo about Derrek Lee who perfomed worse than Vlad and like Roberts has a herniated disc in his back.

Why don't we all be terribly rational then and say that there's a legitimate chance that all three guys could fall off a cliff, maybe at the same time?

[jiminnj]

If you take Vlad's OPS over the last 7 years, starting in 2003 and through 2010 and do a linear regression analysis on these numbers.

3....1.012

4....0.989

5....0.959

6....0.934

7....0.950

8....0.886

9....0.794

10...0.841

The line described in y = -.03104 x Year + 1.118214

That means that over this time period Vlad's OPS has been dropping about 0.031 points per year and the predicted value for his OPS in 2011 calculates to be 0.777.

That is what this rather simple analysis says of his trend over 7 years using the data to predict what he will do in the 8th year. It is a prediction using this simple model. Hopefully Vlad will blow this analysis out of the water.

If Vlad puts up a 0.777 OPS in 2011 he will be a very pedestrian DH. Probably much poorer than Scott and a very good chance poorer than Pie/Reimold.