Fangraphs doesn't get the Vlad move

[JTrea81]

Why don't we all be terribly rational then and say that there's a legitimate chance that all three guys could fall off a cliff, maybe at the same time?

That is very possible.

[Steve I]

I love and hate fangraphs and all stats sites. Baseball can not be be distilled to such simplistic numbers. It is the ephemera nature of baseball that makes it so American. Go O's

[JTrea81]

If you take Vlad's OPS over the last 7 years, starting in 2003 and through 2010 and do a linear regression analysis on these numbers.

3....1.012

4....0.989

5....0.959

6....0.934

7....0.950

8....0.886

9....0.794

10...0.841

The line described in y = -.03104 x Year + 1.118214

That means that over this time period Vlad's OPS has been dropping about 0.031 points per year and the predicted value for his OPS in 2011 calculates to be 0.777.

That is what this rather simple analysis says of his trend over 7 years using the data to predict what he will do in the 8th year. It is a prediction using this simple model. Hopefully Vlad will blow this analysis out of the water.

If Vlad puts up a 0.777 OPS in 2011 he will be a very pedestrian DH. Probably much poorer than Scott and a very good chance poorer than Pie/Reimold.

Interestingly enough, OPACY is more friendly toward RH hitters than Arlington is. And not playing 18 games in Safeco and Oakland will also help his numbers.

Vlad actually will probably put up his best numbers that he could as an Oriole.

[Sports Guy]

Interestingly enough, OPACY is more friendly toward RH hitters than Arlington is. And not playing 18 games in Safeco and Oakland will also help his numbers.

Vlad actually will probably put up his best numbers that he could as an Oriole.

Part of that is because a lot of that is vs Orioles pitching.

[JTrea81]

Part of that is because a lot of that is vs Orioles pitching.

Perhaps, but Texas' pitching wasn't anything to write home about until 2010.

[davearm]

Part of that is because a lot of that is vs Orioles pitching.

Not if they're calculating it right. Park factors should be independent of pitching.

[davearm]

The motive is that this team has a legitimate chance to win and they are looking to improve those chances. FOr the life of me I can't understand why anyone who has been a fan of this team for the last 13 years could be upset with this 1 year deal.

"Legitimate" is a subjective term, and highly debatable. If you read the article you know that the author disagrees with this premise. He doesn't think the O's have a legitimate chance to contend.

In light of that, the reason to be upset comes down to this:

[The O's have] made their team older when they should be getting younger, all while also losing out on the opportunity cost in playing younger players who might be part of a future in which they might actually contend.

The best case in the Vlad scenario is that he rakes and the O's finish 3rd in the ALE.

The best case in the Pie/Reimold scenario is that the light goes on for the player(s) and you've found yourself a legit (perhaps even great) everyday player for the next 5 years.

[byrdz]

It's a one year deal for crips sake. Get over it! I'm sick of the losing and have officially tuned out all sabermetrics from this point forward. Let's play some freaking baseball and may the best man win!

[Sports Guy]

Not if they're calculating it right. Park factors should be independent of pitching.

Well sure but the production of the hitters is obviously taken into account.

If 30 homers were hit by righties, the park factor would be showing it isn't as good a right handed hitting homer park.

[byrdz]

Not if they're calculating it right. Park factors should be independent of pitching.

Yeppers!

[JTrea81]

[The O's have] made their team older when they should be getting younger, all while also losing out on the opportunity cost in playing younger players who might be part of a future in which they might actually contend.

Pie has been given 2 years to take the LF job. He hasn't been able to do it.

Reimold took it away from him in 2009, but then got hurt and had a horrible year in 2010.

Basically we are counting on a Luke Scott scenario for Reimold, and what is the harm by putting him in AAA? Perhaps if he's mashing AAA pitching like so many believe he will do, it will give him confidence to once again perform at the ML level. Instead of having him prove himself vs. Sabathia, Lester etc, have him prove himself vs. AAA journeyman that he can beat up on.

And by putting Pie in a 4th OFer role, you are putting him in the role he will likely have for the rest of his career. You need to see if he can be a viable piece of your future as a bench player. And if you have injuries, well then he can get his 3rd crack at the position.

There is no real downside to this Vlad move whatsoever in terms of taking away playing time from Pie and Reimold and it makes perfect sense for the Orioles, who need as much offensive depth as they can get to surround their core players in 2011.

[olehippi]

As for the article. I understand stat guys are not going to be pro Vlad for the Orioles.

At this point, I don't care. We as fans need something to get excited about. Its been way to long for a loyal fanbase like this to not put a winning team on the field. Even if Vlad pushes us from 78 to 82 wins, it would be well worth it, IMO.

I would have been excited about signing Guerrero 5 years ago when we tried the first time. This time....eh....not so much. And I disagree with JTreas.....I would have preferred to see the Reimold / Pie platoon so that we would know what we have moving forward. Vlad likely stops that from happening.

[Sports Guy]

Pie has been given 2 years to take the LF job. He hasn't been able to do it.

Reimold took it away from him in 2009, but then got hurt and had a horrible year in 2010.

Basically we are counting on a Luke Scott scenario for Reimold, and what is the harm by putting him in AAA? Perhaps if he's mashing AAA pitching like so many believe he will do, it will give him confidence to once again perform at the ML level. Instead of having him prove himself vs. Sabathia, Lester etc, have him prove himself vs. AAA journeyman that he can beat up on.

And by putting Pie in a 4th OFer role, you are putting him in the role he will likely have for the rest of his career. You need to see if he can be a viable piece of your future as a bench player. And if you have injuries, well then he can get his 3rd crack at the position.

There is no real downside to this Vlad move whatsoever in terms of taking away playing time from Pie and Reimold and it makes perfect sense for the Orioles, who need as much offensive depth as they can get.

Its perfectly reasonable to question the durability of Reimold and Pie.

It shows a lack of understanding to question the talent of the 2.

I have very little doubt that if those 2 stayed healthy, that they would have come very close to matching Vlad...and that assumes Vlad gives the Orioles what he gave Texas last year(840 OPS/2ish WAR).

[JTrea81]

I would have been excited about signing Guerrero 5 years ago when we tried the first time. This time....eh....not so much. And I disagree with JTreas.....I would have preferred to see the Reimold / Pie platoon so that we would know what we have moving forward. Vlad likely stops that from happening.

Again, why give them a third crack?

Why drag the rest of the team down solely so we can evaluate "Who's in LF?" for the third straight year?

[davearm]

Well sure but the production of the hitters is obviously taken into account.

If 30 homers were hit by righties, the park factor would be showing it isn't as good a right handed hitting homer park.

I don't want to sidetrack the convo, but in a nutshell park factor is a function of how well hitters fared in games at OPACY, versus how well hitters fared in games where the O's were the visitors.

Variable such as who the hitters were, and who the pitchers were, although not exactly constant are pretty much a wash.

So if RHH combined to hit 100 HRs in 81 games at OPACY (O's + visiting team), but RHH combined to hit only 50 HRs in O's road games (O's + home team), then you'd conclude that OPACY is friendly to RHH.