Fangraphs doesn't get the Vlad move

[Sports Guy]

Again, why give them a third crack?

Why drag the rest of the team down solely so we can evaluate "Who's in LF?" for the third straight year?

If you think those 2 would have drug down the team(assuming they aren't healthy and/or struggle), you are just showing further proof that you have no understanding of stats or how baseball works.

[JTrea81]

Its perfectly reasonable to question the durability of Reimold and Pie.

It shows a lack of understanding to question the talent of the 2.

I have very little doubt that if those 2 stayed healthy, that they would have come very close to matching Vlad...and that assumes Vlad gives the Orioles what he gave Texas last year(840 OPS/2ish WAR).

Pie was healthy and put up a .718 OPS last season.

His best month was August with a .779 OPS and that was sandwiched between a .593 OPS in July and a .662 OPS in Sept/Oct.

He can't stay consistent. The talent is there much like it was for Jeffrey Hammonds, but he simply can't harness it.

Reimold mashed in 2009, this is true. But his 2010 was so horrible, it's asking a lot to think he can perform like that again and to depend on him to do so in a crucial year for your team.

[Sports Guy]

Pie was healthy and put up a .718 OPS last season.

His best month was August with a .779 OPS and that was sandwiched between a .593 OPS in July and a .662 OPS in Sept/Oct.

He can't stay consistent. The talent is there much like it was for Jeffrey Hammonds, but he simply can't harness it.

We don't know if he can harness it because he can't stay healthy. Again, its fine to question his durability but not his talent.

Reimold mashed in 2009, this is true. But his 2010 was so horrible, it's asking a lot to think he can perform like that again and to depend on him to do so in a crucial year for your team.

His 2010 was horrible because of health and off the field issues.

Its not asking a lot at all because of his power and plate discipline. He does those things too well...Even as awful as he was last year, his BA/OBP difference was around 80 points..showing good discipline still in a terrible year.

[JTrea81]

If you think those 2 would have drug down the team(assuming they aren't healthy and/or struggle), you are just showing further proof that you have no understanding of stats or how baseball works.

Perhaps "holding the team back" is better phrasing.

The point is why risk having two black holes in the bottom of the lineup?

You know Izzy is going to be in there sooner than later, so why force a potential bad situation with two automatic outs, if you don't have to?

We had that last year with Bell and Izzy in the 8-9 spots which leaves fewer opportunities for Roberts, Markakis and Lee to drive in.

At least now with Jones, Wieters and Hardy occupying those 7-9 spots, you've got a lot more potential for runners to be on base when the top of the lineup comes up to bat.

[byrdz]

Vlad will make some pretty good trade bait at the deadline if they aren't winning as expected.

[Sports Guy]

Perhaps "holding the team back" is better phrasing.

No its not.

The point is why risk having two black holes in the bottom of the lineup?

You know Izzy is going to be in there sooner than later, so why force a potential bad situation with two automatic outs, if you don't have to

First of all, Pie/reimold will not be black holes. Even if Pie is only giving you a 700 OPS, that's not a black hole. And I like how you are making your normal stupid argument just assuming injuries. Do you assume Vlad will get hurt too?

If you want Vlad because of depth, that's fine...Its a reasonable thing to want and it could pay large dividends for us in many ways...but leave your argument at that. As soon as you start to say anything else, your argument goes from reasonable to moronic.

[Sports Guy]

Vlad will make some pretty good trade bait at the deadline if they aren't winning as expected.

Hopefully...We have to hope that a contender will want/need a DH.

And his market would be limited.

[JTrea81]

No its not.

First of all, Pie/reimold will not be black holes. Even if Pie is only giving you a 700 OPS, that's not a black hole. And I like how you are making your normal stupid argument just assuming injuries. Do you assume Vlad will get hurt too?

If you want Vlad because of depth, that's fine...Its a reasonable thing to want and it could pay large dividends for us in many ways...but leave your argument at that. As soon as you start to say anything else, your argument goes from reasonable to moronic.

A .700 OPS in LF isn't a black hole?

C'mon now, you know better than that. This isn't the 1970's...

A .700 OPS from LF would be among the 5 worst LFers in baseball.

And I make the injury argument because even though I may not regularly watch the games even I know the Orioles' luck with injuries has not been the greatest.

Roberts, Lee and Hardy will likely all miss some time, and yes Vlad might as well.

But Cesar Izturis is an offensive black hole, and you don't want to have anybody else that could be a black hole next to him because it will suck the life out of the offense.

Buck has said that 7-9 shows the strength of your lineup compared to other teams. If Izzy's there, we are already at a disadvantage without adding any other potential deficiencies.

[Oriolidae85]

Have not read this yet in any of the Vlad threads, but does any one think the Orioles put themselves in a position to have to pay for the higher contract because of earlier discussions during the off season?

Hypothetical scenario:

As an example, the Lee/LaRoche negotiations eventually led AM publicly stating they were willing to add one of the FA DH's (in lieu of one of the 1B). And while talking with SFX (Vlad's agents), AM said $8M was not out of the question to spark Vlad's interest (hypothetically speaking).

Orioles sign Lee for the $8M+ and the market tanked for Vlad suitors, which opens AM eyes while sifting through the bargain bin (off season list ranking with players available). AM again approaches SFX (or whoever Vlad's agent is) and says we have a little wiggle room to add more talent. The discount negotiations begins and Vlad says...."wait a minute..is that not the guy who wears those classy sweater vests and said the Orioles would be willing to pay $8M?"

Three weeks later, the Orioles end up not insulting a possible HOF and come close to their earlier salary amounts discussed. That is possibly why AM was unusually vocal on this process, at least from MPOV.

Anyone agree?

[mweb]

At the end he says this might make sense if extra wins from Vlad would get the club to 87 wins instead of 81. Well I think there is a reasonable case to suggest this team could very well be in that 87 win area. With that said, I'm still not a fan of the move because as he suggests, the difference between Vlad and Pie/Reimold is not likely to be that large and 8 million is too much even with some of it deferred.

[Sports Guy]

A .700 OPS isn't a black hole?

C'mon now, you know better than that. This isn't the 1970's...

No, its not. Especially in the current offensive climate and especially if Pie plays LF the way he has shown he can...He can still be a 2ish WAR player with that OPS.

[davearm]

Perhaps "holding the team back" is better phrasing.

The point is why risk having two black holes in the bottom of the lineup?

To give yourself an (admittedly small) chance at stumbling into the next Carl Crawford (Pie) or Jason Werth (Reimold), whereas Vlad offers no future or longterm upside whatsoever.

[JTrea81]

To give yourself an (admittedly small) chance at stumbling into the next Carl Crawford (Pie) or Jason Werth (Reimold), whereas Vlad offers no future or longterm upside whatsoever.

Pie will be 26 years old this season. He is what he is. He's no longer the uber 22 year old prospect that broke in with the Cubs. He lacks the baseball instincts and the discipline to become that star player.

His upside is Jeffrey Hammonds - a solid 4th OFer. So now you see if he can take that role off the bench and excel at it. And if there is an injury, perhaps he gets one more crack at starting full time.

Now Reimold could be Werth, but it would be nice to see him crush the heck out of AAA pitching one more time just to make sure.

And then if he does perhaps you trade Vlad or trade Reimold himself for a SP if the Orioles are doing well with Vlad crushing the ball in Baltimore.

The Orioles now have options they wouldn't have had before.

And if Pie and Reimold both fall flat, you now know that you can't depend on them, and don't hurt the ML team in the process in that discovery.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Vlad will make some pretty good trade bait at the deadline if they aren't winning as expected.

Yes.

If he hits the way most here think he will hit.

If not, his value is near zero.

[Sports Guy]

Pie will be 26 years old this season. He is what he is. He's no longer the uber 22 year old prospect that broke in with the Cubs. He lacks the baseball instincts and the discipline to become that star player.

His upside is Jeffrey Hammonds - a solid 4th OFer. So now you see if he can take that role off the bench and excel at it. And if there is an injury, perhaps he gets one more crack at starting full time.

Now Reimold could be Werth, but it would be nice to see him crush the heck out of AAA pitching one more time just to make sure.

And then if he does perhaps you trade Vlad or trade Reimold himself for a SP if the Orioles are doing well with Vlad crushing the ball in Baltimore.

The Orioles now have options they wouldn't have had before.

And if Pie and Reimold both fall flat, you now know that you can't depend on them, and don't hurt the ML team in the process in that discovery.

Didn't Drungo already embarrass you when you made this proclamation before? Did you not learn anything?