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PECOTA projects O's record to be 82-80


OrioleMagic

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Check ESPN Insider if you have it.

a small excerpt:

Player Who Could Surprise: Hardy. Although the 50 home runs he hit between 2007 and 2008 seem like a long time ago and his overall 2010 numbers were mediocre, once he got over an injured wrist, he hit .304/.363/.442 in the second half. He'll be a revelation after two years of Cesar Izturis and should exceed his PECOTA-projected .261/.319/.414 rates.

Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Wieters. While fandom still waits for the soon to be 25-year-old catcher to make good on his terrific minor-league numbers, PECOTA has stopped looking for a breakout, calling for a .268/.341/.419 season. Names like Ryan Doumit and Ryan Garko are starting to show up among his comparables, two too many mediocre Ryans for a future star.

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How excited would you be with an 82 win season if Wieters is just a 750ish OPS guy?

Not very actually. I think we need big strides from MW and AJ to see quality future growth on this team. Without any high quality up and coming Position players this team could take a big drop down in terms of quality of graduated talent if MW busts.

268/.341/.419 PECOTA Projections

288/361/448 Bill James Projections

This is a pretty big year in the scheme of Matt Wieters. Statistically speaking we're getting to the point where PECOTA is right. Guys just don't bounce back from these kinds of numbers in their careers.

It puts a lot more pressure on our system to see Machado turn into a superstar if we can't get even a well above average bat from Wieters. Luckily he's a catcher, so he'll have a lot of a value for longer than what other guys would in his position.

But that's scary for long term potential of a great Orioles team. Not just this year.

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How excited would you be with an 82 win season if Wieters is just a 750ish OPS guy?

Given that Lee and Vlad are both gone after 2011, and Matt is supposed to be a cornerstone...? Not very.

Regardless of the record, the "success" of this season, IMO, turns on the performances of Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Reynolds (to a lesser degree), and the development of the pitching staff.

Now granted...I've said before that having a .750ish OPS catcher with great defense is nothing to sneeze at, and I stand by that, but Wieters topping out at that level of plate-production would leave the Orioles with an uncomfortable number of offensive holes going forward.

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Given that Lee and Vlad are both gone after 2011, and Matt is supposed to be a cornerstone...? Not very.

Regardless of the record, the "success" of this season, IMO, turns on the performances of Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Reynolds (to a lesser degree), and the development of the pitching staff.

Now granted...I've said before that having a .750ish OPS catcher with great defense is nothing to sneeze at, and I stand by that, but Wieters topping out at that level of plate-production would leave the Orioles with an uncomfortable number of offensive holes going forward.

There is no doubt in my mind that Reynolds and Hardy are a part of this equation. We've go to see if Reynolds has a future in the AL and if Hardy can stay healthy. both of these answers are important parts to the short term future of this team.

But like you said in terms of corner stones. We need a guy like Longoria to get us through rough years and Jones/Wieters are really the only two guys on our roster as position players that can do that right now.

I could live with MW being a 750 OPS catcher for the long term if Jones can go back to his old fielding and jack up his OPS. But one of these guys has got to come through for us this year.

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How excited would you be with an 82 win season if Wieters is just a 750ish OPS guy?

Depends on how we get there. If Jones and Pie both become .800+ OPS players, Markakis and Reynolds both become .850+ OPS players, and Bergesen, Tillman, and Arrieta all pitch to sub 4.20 ERAs, I'll be able to tolerate a .750 OPS and solid defense from Wieters.

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How excited would you be with an 82 win season if Wieters is just a 750ish OPS guy?
Not very actually.
Given that Lee and Vlad are both gone after 2011, and Matt is supposed to be a cornerstone...? Not very.

We may say that now, but heck, if it happens, I think a lot of O's fans will be busting out the champagne and confetti. It's time to snap the 13-year losing streak.

First and foremost I'd be thrilled that the O's are finally a competent, winning team-- then we'd work out what to do with Wieters.

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link to projections non insider

Wins Losses Div Win % WC % Playoff %

New York Yankees 94 68 41% 25% 66%

Boston Red Sox 92 70 31% 25% 56%

Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 23% 23% 46%

Baltimore Orioles 80 82 4% 7% 11%

Toronto Blue Jays 72 90 1% 1% 2%

Someone got it wrong somewhere. I don't subscribe to PECOTA but I can't find the ESPN article talking about this.

I'm not sure the OP's link. But I have ESPN Insider. But both are typically pretty reliable sites for this kind of info.

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