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BA ranks Machado as no. 14 prospect; Britton 28


Frobby

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Means nothing, but past #14's...

90 - Mike Harkey

91 - Raul Mondesi

92 - Kurt Miller

93 - Ray McDavid

94 - Chan Ho Park

95 - Alan Benes

96 - Billy Wagner

97 - Bartolo Colon

98 - Brad Fullmer

99 - Carlos Beltran

00 - Kip Wells

01 - Drew Henson

02 - Ryan Anderson

03 - Justin Morneau

04 - Zach Greinke

05 - Jeff Francoeur

06 - Andy Marte

07 - Jay Bruce

08 - Andrew McCutchen

09 - Buster Posey

10 - Madison Bumgarner

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20 HR power for a SS is a rarity. I'd call that plus for the position. On the scouting scale, maybe it's "only" 40-50 power when viewed from universe of all offensive players. But normalizing for position, that could easily be called plus.

It's also very common for us to think #-tool = plus plus at all tools. When commentators spout off about 4-tool player or 5-tool player, they often mean for a plus tool standpoint. To me though, if a guy is average or slightly above average at a particular tool, wouldn't that qualify him to be recognized in that category? In other words, as long as the player is not slightly below average in a particular category, he does not get docked.

A 20-HR shortstop would be fantastic. No one is debating that.

From a scouting standpoint, to call someone a 5-tool player means that each tool is above average or better. That's why power technically counts as one of Machado's tools. Speed doesn't. Callis knows that. He's a scout.

Let's just say that of the five tools, speed is probably the one I care least about. I'm very excited to see whether Machado can quickly show that he is the stud that BA thinks he is.

On its own, you're correct.

However, while tools are graded in vacuums, they don't exist in them. Each tool has its effect on the player's overall game.

Here's why I think it's important to distinguish between Machado being 5-tool or 4-tool player. From an offensive perspective, Machado doesn't have the ability to contribute to run-scoring by stealing bases. More subtly, though, he also is not the type of burner who can beat out groundball hits, which has an impact on his BA, and he won't stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples the way a better runner would, negatively affecting his SLG%.

More troubling, the lack of speed affects his defensive range, which is exceedingly important considering that much of Machado's value is predicated on his position. He already has mediocre range at SS, and looking at his build and frame, he will likely fill out his hips/trunk. When that happens, he may not be able to stick at SS at all. If he moves to third base, his offensive production seriously takes a hit in value.

So, in my mind, speed creeps into just about every aspect of Machado's game, and it is important to recognize that he is not, as has been said, the "total package."

That doesn't mean he isn't a great prospect.

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On its own, you're correct.

However, while tools are graded in vacuums, they don't exist in them. Each tool has its effect on the player's overall game.

Here's why I think it's important to distinguish between Machado being 5-tool or 4-tool player. From an offensive perspective, Machado doesn't have the ability to contribute to run-scoring by stealing bases. More subtly, though, he also is not the type of burner who can beat out groundball hits, which has an impact on his BA, and he won't stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples the way a better runner would, negatively affecting his SLG%.

More troubling, the lack of speed affects his defensive range, which is exceedingly important considering that much of Machado's value is predicated on his position. He already has mediocre range at SS, and looking at his build and frame, he will likely fill out his hips/trunk. When that happens, he may not be able to stick at SS at all. If he moves to third base, his offensive production seriously takes a hit in value.

So, in my mind, speed creeps into just about every aspect of Machado's game, and it is important to recognize that he is not, as has been said, the "total package."

That doesn't mean he isn't a great prospect.

Your post is the first time I've heard it said that Machado has mediocre range at SS. If that's true, obviously that's an issue.

It would be helpful, though, if I had a better understanding of just how fast you have to be to be considered to have the speed "tool." For example, did Miguel Tejada have it? Hardy? Of today's starting shortstops, how many would you say have (or had, when they were 18) the speed tool? Here's a list sorted by stolen bases: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/sort/stolenBases/order/true

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Your post is the first time I've heard it said that Machado has mediocre range at SS. If that's true, obviously that's an issue.

It would be helpful, though, if I had a better understanding of just how fast you have to be to be considered to have the speed "tool." For example, did Miguel Tejada have it? Hardy? Of today's starting shortstops, how many would you say have (or had, when they were 18) the speed tool? Here's a list sorted by stolen bases: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/sort/stolenBases/order/true

Frobby, we've talked about this before, and you're right, speed is not the only element of good range. It might not even be the most important. Quickness, reaction time, positioning and other things combine to make good range. That's why UZR likes Hardy quite a bit while the eyes tell us he is slow. You don't need to be a burner to be a good SS.

However, not being speedy immediately puts the SS at a disadvantage. Not only will his speed be affected by a thickening out, but his quickness will too.

Machado is a fluid shortstop. He has good hands, a good arm and pretty good footwork. That's why his defensive skills rate well above average. But his left-to-right range is average right now. I can't see it getting any better as he fills out. My guess is that he'll fill out and become a shortstop who looks good doing everything he does but ends up with less than stellar range as measured by advanced metrics. And that's fine. I wouldn't rule out a shift to 3B, but I think he can probably stick at short.

In any case, my only point was that it's wrong to tout speed as a strength for Machado when it's not. And that's exactly what is implied when we call him a 5-tool talent.

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Of the 21 players I listed, Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos and Iglesias were foreign signs -- three by NY, one from Boston.

I understand that those 4 were signed by the Yankees and Red Sox, but there are a lot more players in the top 100 that were signed from outside the US. If I were running the Orioles I would look for talent coming from the international community. We talk about how good teams gain additional picks and how that is a big deal, but we could be signing players of equal talent without holding a pick.

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I understand that those 4 were signed by the Yankees and Red Sox, but there are a lot more players in the top 100 that were signed from outside the US. If I were running the Orioles I would look for talent coming from the international community. We talk about how good teams gain additional picks and how that is a big deal, but we could be signing players of equal talent without holding a pick.

Unfortunately signing expensive international talent is a risk the current regime seems unwilling to take.

There is also the disturbing to me comment about not liking the process in the DR, which struck me as similar to his views on the posting process in Japan. I am concerned that he allows his dislike of the procedures to effect the O's ability to procure players in those markets.

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Frobby, we've talked about this before, and you're right, speed is not the only element of good range. It might not even be the most important. Quickness, reaction time, positioning and other things combine to make good range. That's why UZR likes Hardy quite a bit while the eyes tell us he is slow. You don't need to be a burner to be a good SS.

However, not being speedy immediately puts the SS at a disadvantage. Not only will his speed be affected by a thickening out, but his quickness will too.

Machado is a fluid shortstop. He has good hands, a good arm and pretty good footwork. That's why his defensive skills rate well above average. But his left-to-right range is average right now. I can't see it getting any better as he fills out. My guess is that he'll fill out and become a shortstop who looks good doing everything he does but ends up with less than stellar range as measured by advanced metrics. And that's fine. I wouldn't rule out a shift to 3B, but I think he can probably stick at short.

In any case, my only point was that it's wrong to tout speed as a strength for Machado when it's not. And that's exactly what is implied when we call him a 5-tool talent.

I hope you understand that my question in my last post wasn't really intended to make a rhetorical point about speed vs. range. I'm really trying to understand the terminology scouts and evaluators use when they say a player does or doesn't have a "tool." My basic understanding is that scouts rate "tools" on a scale of 20-80, with 50 being average. So, where on that scale do you have to be to be credited with having that "tool?" 55? 60? 70? And then beyond that, where would a typical young major league shortstop rank on that scale, for the speed "tool"? Where would you put Machado?

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If we have a SS that will hit .290-.300 15-25 HR and play decent defense for the next 10 years, i'll take that in a heartbeat. If he turns out to ne more, i'll be estatic. The thought of that and having a rotation that includes Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, and Tillman has me above estatic.

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I hope you understand that my question in my last post wasn't really intended to make a rhetorical point about speed vs. range. I'm really trying to understand the terminology scouts and evaluators use when they say a player does or doesn't have a "tool." My basic understanding is that scouts rate "tools" on a scale of 20-80, with 50 being average. So, where on that scale do you have to be to be credited with having that "tool?" 55? 60? 70? And then beyond that, where would a typical young major league shortstop rank on that scale, for the speed "tool"? Where would you put Machado?
Baseball Cube has 20-100 ratings for players. Pie is rated 87 for speed. For comparison Andrus is rated 84, Y. Escobar 44, B.Gardener 96, Tulo 53.
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Baseball Cube has 20-100 ratings for players. Pie is rated 87 for speed. For comparison Andrus is rated 84, Y. Escobar 44, B.Gardener 96, Tulo 53.

Those are not scouts' ratings. TBC calls them "Scouting Scores" but they are derived from very simple stats. The speed score is derived from the number of stolen bases against the number of times the player reaches first base.

Scouting Reports are statistically-generated ratings for batters and pitchers based on yearly comparisons against their peers. The ratings are not based on a pre-determined benchmark such as the scouting ratings used by scouts. This is not based on actually seeing a player's physical skills. These ratings are based exclusively on statistical history and can be used to help predict a player's fantasy usefulness and possible career projection.

Not totally worthless, but the next thing to it.

The Baseball Cube "Scouting Scores"

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Those are not scouts' ratings. TBC calls them "Scouting Scores" but they are derived from very simple stats. The speed score is derived from the number of stolen bases against the number of times the player reaches first base.

Not totally worthless, but the next thing to it.

The Baseball Cube "Scouting Scores"

If this were true, Pie would have a much lower score than he does.
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