BA ranks Machado as no. 14 prospect; Britton 28

[Chevytrckman3]

Can Machado make it to the majors, then i'll worry about his defense. If he doesn't hit, we're not going to have to worry about his defense much.

[Icterus galbula]

What does OFP stand for? Is that some kind of average of all the tools? How is it calculated?

Yeah, I had to look it up too. This blurb on a Rangers website explained it well, I thought.

The Scouting Scale/Methods:

For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there’s not much space beneath the curve’s tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., “fringe-average,” “solid-average”) to modify scores of 50 that don’t quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.

The scout averages the tool grades to produce an “Overall Future Potential” (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn’t limited to scores ending in “5″ or “0.”) After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the “A” stands for “adjusted.” An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.

An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having “front-line” status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers.

http://www.texasfarmreview.com/scouting-primer/

Stotle, do those numbers fit your criteria as well?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Jeter - 323 stolen bases, including 4 seasons over 30

ARod - 301 stolen bases, including a high of 46

I don't know what these guys rated on the "speed tool" when they were prospects, but you can pretty much be assured that they had better than average speed at the time.

If only for historical interest, I would love to see the scouting reports on these players and others of their caliber. What kind of future did scouts see for Cal? What were the numbers on Koufax?

They're in cabinets somewhere.

This would be at least a great magazine article, if not the basis of a book.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I had to look it up too. This blurb on a Rangers website explained it well, I thought.

http://www.texasfarmreview.com/scouting-primer/

Stotle, do those numbers fit your criteria as well?

Yup. Jason Parks does great work -- you should definitely keep checking out his site. I'd note that depending on who you talk to you'll have situations where tools are weighted when averaged. For example, power weighted 1.2 for 1B and speed rated .8 (roughly speaking). Others prefer to just tweak at the OFP level, so a 1B might rank

Hit - 50

Power - 55

Speed - 40

Defense - 50

Arm - 55

Some would slap weights on those grades and then average. Others prefer to just tweak the OFP after being calculated.

Re: Machado, now that I am home I looked at my report:

Hit - 50/55

Power - 50/55

Speed - 50

Defense - 50

Arm - 65

OFP - 54

Lindor (not final, but the grades I slapped on after Jupiter this October):

Hit - 55/60

Power - 40/45

Speed - 55

Defense - 60

Arm - 55

OFP - 55

[Frobby]

Stotle, thanks a lot for the education (along with others). I'm just curious, what is the highest OFP you have ever given to a prospect, and are you at liberty to say who it was?

[Stotle]

Stotle, thanks a lot for the education (along with others). I'm just curious, what is the highest OFP you have ever given to a prospect, and are you at liberty to say who it was?

Sure. The reports I've filed for my team are only in area, and my area isn't exactly a hot bed.

Top three, most recently

Harper

Hit - 55/60

Power - 80

Speed - 45

Defense - 50

Arm - 80

OFP - 63

Strasburg

FB - 80

CB - 70

CH - 60

Motion - 55

Control - 60

Command - 55

Feel - 60

OFP - 64

Taillon

FB - 70

CB - 65

SL - 55

CH - 55

Motion - 55

Control - 60

Command - 50

Feel - 55

OFP - 61

[Frobby]

The Nats really hit the jackpot the two years they had the top pick. Guys like Strasburg and Harper don't come around every year.

[Stotle]

The Nats really hit the jackpot the two years they had the top pick. Guys like Strasburg and Harper don't come around every year.

Absolutely, though this year I'd say both Cole and Rendon are pretty darn close. Would be a boon to have one of them fall to BAL.

I'm just finishing up a report on Cole that I hope to publish tonight:

FB - 80

SL - 70

CT - 60

CH - 55

Motion - 50

Feel - 60

Control - 60

Command - 55

OFP - 63

[RVAbird]

Absolutely, though this year I'd say both Cole and Rendon are pretty darn close. Would be a boon to have one of them fall to BAL.

I'm just finishing up a report on Cole that I hope to publish tonight:

FB - 80

SL - 70

CT - 60

CH - 55

Motion - 50

Feel - 60

Control - 60

Command - 55

OFP - 63

I think you're right on. Callis tweeted today that he'd put Cole above Taillon as well. I think he and Rendon are in a different class from the rest in terms of upside/safety combo.

[davearm]

Fascinating stuff Stotle, thanks for sharing.

Clearly those scores need to be weighted when computing OFP. The "hit" tool is going to be more important than the "arm" tool virtually universally (catcher might be the lone exception), and if we're talking about a 1B, the "arm" tool is almost irrelevant.

[Stotle]

Fascinating stuff Stotle, thanks for sharing.

Clearly those scores need to be weighted when computing OFP. The "hit" tool is going to be more important than the "arm" tool virtually universally (catcher might be the lone exception), and if we're talking about a 1B, the "arm" tool is almost irrelevant.

Right. But you do tend to take it all into account at the amateur level because you generally have the option to move people around a little more freely than you generally would at say the AA level. Now, if the guy is a 35 runner with 45 defense at 1B, he's probably not shifting to the OF. But if he's a 50 runner with a 60 arm, maybe you take a RF possibility into account.

[Frobby]

Ray (Manhasset, NY): Jim, Who is the best infield prospect in baseball?

Jim Callis: Middle infielder? I'll take Manny Machado (who's No. 14 on our list) over Dustin Ackley (No. 12), because Machado is a shortstop and I think Ackley is a second baseman better suited for the outfield.

* * *

MJ (Chicago): Does Machado look like he can stick at short?

J.J. Cooper: Yes. If he couldn't he wouldn't have ranked as highly as he did, although the bat's pretty special as well.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2011/2611329.html