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For What It's Worth...

Belkast

By Belkast
in Orioles Talk

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srock Veteran All-Star

srock

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He has tremendous actual value but I'm positive his perceived value among GMs is even higher than his actual value. Of course, you could always trade him at some point EVEN if you sign him.

There is no difference between the two. GM's will offer what they perceive Bedard's value to be. Once the offer is made, this perceived value is, at that point in time, Bedard's actual value.

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Belkast Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Belkast

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I am right there with you on this post.

I keep going back and forth on Bedard...I guess i will be happy either way.

BTW, if we offer him more than 4 guaranteed years, i think it will be a mistake as well.

The most i could see giving him is 4/54 but that is really the most money Bedard figures to make over the next 4 years...Since we are taking on all the risk, we should be able to get him for 4/44-50 million.

I think you would be looking at 15 mill for 5 possibly 6 years. Personally I would rather trade him.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I think if all goes well we will have a young and exciting team. I think Trembley is the right guy in there for a young team. We might actually see some hustling this year.

This is being overlooked but is very important IMO.

For what Belkast is saying, DT may be the long term manager here....Since this possibility exists, that tells me they are going to mold the team the way he likes it.

Now, if Luis Hernandez is part of that mold, that is terrible but the concept of getting younger seems to be a priority and that is great to hear.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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For the FA years sure, but there is a 0% chance he gets that type of money over the next two years. He won't be expecting to get it either, unless he is hellbent on leaving town. His agents will be intelligent enough to know that nobody gets FA year money during the arb years of a contract extension. It has never happened in MLB history, and Bedard certainly won't be the first.

Agreed. And Zito had a very long track record of durability and success that Bedard does not have. The closest comps to Bedard, IMO, are Jeremy Bonderman and Aaraon Harang. Both were two years from free agency last winter. Harang signed for 4/$36.5 with a team option for $12.75 mm in the 5th year. Bonderman signed for 4/$38 mm. I think Bedard will command more, because the market has gotten even stronger and he had such a dominant season. At the same time, Bonderman and Harang had shown more durability than Bedard has, and Bonderman was considerably younger.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondeje01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/haranaa01.shtml

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Yeah as crazy as it may seem, thats the route I would go too. The O's could get a really good return for him.

Do you have any idea what it would take for Bedard to sign here?

The pitchers that have signed deals that are in his situation(ie 2 years from FA..service time) have been given 4 year deals, in the 30-40 million range.

I can see us having to overpay to get him to commit to being here BUT how much do we have to overpay?

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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I agree but you know what the price of good pitching is anymore, 11 even 12 mil is not getting it.
the total value of the contract divided by how many years he is getting is not the right way to look at a Bedard contract. Bedard and his representation have absolutely no expectation of getting $15M each of the next two years. They know and understand that he'll be getting far less than that because that's all he would be getting through arbitration. Beyond those two years, then certainly a $12-13M per year offer is a slap in the face, we'll have to offer him in the $15-18M to lock him up those years.
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Guest oriofan8

Guest oriofan8

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BTW...Not sure how much everyone cares but Trembley has impressed the hell out of everyone. Sounds like he could very well be a long term Baltimore style manager. His work effort is fantastic and his passion is even better. I am rooting for him.

I absolutely agree! Long-term stability would be HUGE for this team. I am very optimistic, more this off-season, than in the past. Andy & DT !!

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blueberryale77 Hangout Veteran Council

blueberryale77

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I think you would be looking at 15 mill for 5 possibly 6 years. Personally I would rather trade him.

Definitely. The more I think about actual money and the other things that could be done with it, the more I think it is absolutely imperative to trade Bedard this offseason (unless the offers are drastically less than we all expect) and failure to do so could doom us to several more years of futility. I just think there's too much risk in that contract for a guy with his durability issues.

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Peace21 Veteran All-Star

Peace21

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Do you have any idea what it would take for Bedard to sign here?

The pitchers that have signed deals that are in his situation(ie 2 years from FA..service time) have been given 4 year deals ormally in the 30-40 million range.

I can see us having to overpay to get him to commit to being here BUT how much do we have to overpay?

I cant really leak that kind of info yet.

But what I can tell you is, Bedard doesnt really like it here in Baltimore. We could all guess that. But the O's are the ones that will have to beg here. If they really want to bring Bedard back they have to build a winner, and offer him something to what Zito got or even more. Bedard if and when he makes it to FA, he will become the highest paid starter in the league.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Definitely. The more I think about actual money and the other things that could be done with it, the more I think it is absolutely imperative to trade Bedard this offseason (unless the offers are drastically less than we all expect) and failure to do so could doom us to several more years of futility. I just think there's too much risk in that contract for a guy with his durability issues.

Do you feel the same way about BRob?

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