Law: O's "clearly the worst team" in AL EAST

[NewMarketSean]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-sportsblitz-orioles-law0314,0,285433.story

Basically he goes in depth on what he said earlier in the offseason and I can't argue with anything he said.

I think he is discounting the possibility that Guerrero and Lee have good seasons and provide excitement, which is what we really want in 2011. I also think he is off in his criticism of adding the vet players we added. They aren't blocking anyone in the minors outside of Bell, who was absolutely horrible in the majors last year. He does have a point, though, if we took that money from the international market and threw it at Lee and Guerrero for one-year each.

Anyway, I think that a lot of people are hoping that things go right for the O's this year, for once, and Law represents the realist view...maybe with a dash of pessimism thrown in.

[OFFNY]

I have no problem with finishing in last place this season with a record of 83-79. I don't know if that's what Law had in mind, but that's what I'm predicting.

.

[ShaneDawg85]

I can't disagree with anything he has said about Guerrero. I didn't like the move then, I still don't like it now, and even if he produces this year I still won't be in favor of it. Contrary to what some on here might think, it was a move that we simply didn't have to make.

Nothing Law says is intrinsically wrong or without merit. I'm still not convinced we're worse than Toronto after taking into consideration what they lost and that I think their offense is going to plummet back to earth, but Law's points remain the same.

[Icterus galbula]

This section struck me as a bit odd, because I thought Tillman was a clean-delivery guy:

MV: What’s your evaluation of Tillman?

KL: I didn’t see him last year. I had seen him before plenty of times. I saw a guy who projected to have an above-average fastball and above-average curveball -- that’s a pretty good combination. I thought he would miss a lot of bats with the breaking ball. He needed to work on the changeup and the fastball’s command. There’s a lot of moving parts in his delivery. … There is no reason that he can’t ultimately harness the delivery and repeat it well enough to throw quality strikes. What went wrong with him last year? I’m sorry, but I couldn’t tell you because I didn’t see him pitch.

[Stotle]

Nails it here:

We don’t know that they’re diverting money away from the farm system. I have pointed out many times this offseason that they do very little internationally. They got outbid on Miguel Sano, for example, the top prospect for the Twins now. They were in on it. They saw him. They liked him. And they decided to low-ball him relative to what the Pirates and the Twins were offering him. If you’re going to be involved internationally, you’re probably not going to have a lot of success if you’re constantly coming in third or fourth on the top prospects. There’s a couple of guys every year who are going to get a million dollars or more. You’ve got to be winning to pony up and take the risk.

It’s extremely risky. I’m not trying to downplay that aspect. But to play seriously on the international front, it might take five million dollars. Do they no longer have the five million dollars available to put in the Dominican, Venezuela, East Asia? I don’t know that. Again, I’m just speculating, but I don’t like seeing the shift in commitment. ... I don’t know exactly how much money they have left for other areas, but to see them suddenly give this money to veterans who are not going to work out, it’s not going to return a ton of value. This team is not going to win 85 games this year. This makes me worry that their philosophical commitment to building through the draft, through international scouting, through trading veterans for young players, may have waned, and that they won’t be willing to commit the same money to acquiring young talent.

[Tony-OH]

I'm a little more positive on the Orioles off season moves, but he does make a lot of good points.

Most of us agree the Orioles MUST be more active on the international front. They will really have a hard time sustaining a good farm system without investing significantly in that market.

[Sparkwinder]

The only move from the off-season that really disappointed me in terms of the Orioles long-term is signing Vlad. It'll be fun watching him, but that's money that should be spent elsewhere. Anyone who says that we don't know if the money is being diverted from other areas is suffering from "money grows on trees" syndrome. The only way that the move makes sense is if the Orioles seriously contend this year, and given that an objective assessment of our team would suggest that we won't be competing, you have to make that judgment at the time of the signing.

It's one of my biggest pet-peeves of baseball fans (and people in general). Decisions ought to be judged on what we knew at the time we made them, not on their outcome. Outcome is absolutely irrelevant. If the extreme outlier chance hits and Vlad carries the team on the back of 1.000+ OPS to the playoffs, most will say that it was the correct decision to sign him, even though an objective assessment at the time of signing suggested that there was a 99% chance that he does not have this effect on the team. What people should say is "We got lucky with that signing", but they won't.

The reason I was disappointed in the Vlad signing is that we had Pie + Reimold in a platoon competition lined up in left field. Two young guys who haven't proven themselves either way as yet fighting for a job is a good thing for the future of the team. Scott was comfortable and reasonably consistent at DH last year. Now he has to jog out to LF nine times a game, which may be enough to affect his hitting -- the point being, DH wasn't broken last year, why are we trying to fix it? Our minor leagues are broken -- that 8 million we spent on Vlad could have helped with that a bit.

Even if Vlad is a big name who will collect some of his cost back in just being that big name, Law has it right: the novelty will wear off quickly if we end up losing, and the chances of us losing this year are high. Every action the Orioles take should be with the long-term viability of the club in mind, even if it irks the fan-base in the process.

[NewMarketSean]

If you view the FA signings of Lee and Vlad as "helping out the pitching" in terms of their development, I think these signings make more sense. Obviously we don't want these guys pressing too hard with little run support, and Lee and Vlad were good 1-year deals to help the pitching along.

But I also think this goes back to the knocks against Angelos in that he spends money on stuff he sees immediately. He doesn't want to spend on a Dominican kid who might make the majors. He wants to spend money on guys who will play THIS YEAR.

[Jimbo81]

This season does not depend on the vets that have been signed. It depends on the young pitchers developing. If we do not win 85 games it's on them mostly, IMO.

The idea behind signing the vets was to help our young pitchers build confidence and show them if they pitch well (like they did at the end of last season) the FO will go out and supplement the team with better players. Now we could argue the players we got are not that much of an improvement (I think it was hands down an improvement) but, in KLaw's opinion we wasted money because we won't win 85 games. We can go in circles all day about this.

Bottom line good pitching means winning.

[Ooooooohhhh!!!!]

This makes me worry that their philosophical commitment to building through the draft, through international scouting, through trading veterans for young players, may have waned, and that they won’t be willing to commit the same money to acquiring young talent.

Lee and/or Vlad could net us young talent in a trade or picks in next year's draft.

Even if Vlad is a big name who will collect some of his cost back in just being that big name, Law has it right: the novelty will wear off quickly if we end up losing, and the chances of us losing this year are high. Every action the Orioles take should be with the long-term viability of the club in mind, even if it irks the fan-base in the process.

I agree that most likely the novelty will wear off. At the same time this year's camp has been much different then in years past. The players seem to have a different attitude, a much more positive attitude. I know it's impossible to measure, but it's possible that it carries into the season and something special happens. The positive mentality has to carry some weight.

[NewMarketSean]

Maybe Showalter is the difference with this team. And clearly that is something that Law would never say.

Under DT, I think the likelihood that this team would have imploded would have been greater than it is now.

I believe that Buck can get more out of this team than any other manager we've had since Davey Johnson, hands down. You can tell by what the players are saying and what you're hearing out of camp.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Maybe Showalter is the difference with this team. And clearly that is something that Law would never say.

Under DT, I think the likelihood that this team would have imploded would have been greater than it is now.

I believe that Buck can get more out of this team than any other manager we've had since Davey Johnson, hands down. You can tell by what the players are saying and what you're hearing out of camp.

A lot is riding on The Buck Effect.

I hope it's for real.

[MikeAD]

I really can't disagree with much of what he says. On paper this team is improved but not competitive within the Division. We have the worst rotation (on paper) right now in the division and while the overall team is one of the best we've had in a long time it still doesn't stack up. The entire team oozes potential, but thats for us to look to and access what we might be a season from now, not to put stock into now. The rotation has Guthrie as the only sure thing. Matusz showed amazing talent last season, but hes still young and everything he will show is in front of him. The same will be true for whoever fills the 3-5 spots. Hardy is a big improvement at the plate at SS, but hes coming off a down year, the same as Mark Reynolds. We have injury risks at 1B and 2B.

I am not discrediting the team or saying we are awful, just if you were going to put money on an AL East Tournament you wouldn't be too wise to pick Baltimore right now.

I especially agree with this part:

MV: Looking at the long-term picture, what would have been a better way for the Orioles to spend the money they used to sign those players, like putting it back into the farm system or scouting?

KL: We don’t know that they’re diverting money away from the farm system. I have pointed out many times this offseason that they do very little internationally. They got outbid on Miguel Sano, for example, the top prospect for the Twins now. They were in on it. They saw him. They liked him. And they decided to low-ball him relative to what the Pirates and the Twins were offering him. If you’re going to be involved internationally, you’re probably not going to have a lot of success if you’re constantly coming in third or fourth on the top prospects. There’s a couple of guys every year who are going to get a million dollars or more. You’ve got to be winning to pony up and take the risk.

It’s extremely risky. I’m not trying to downplay that aspect. But to play seriously on the international front, it might take five million dollars. Do they no longer have the five million dollars available to put in the Dominican, Venezuela, East Asia? I don’t know that. Again, I’m just speculating, but I don’t like seeing the shift in commitment. ... I don’t know exactly how much money they have left for other areas, but to see them suddenly give this money to veterans who are not going to work out, it’s not going to return a ton of value. This team is not going to win 85 games this year. This makes me worry that their philosophical commitment to building through the draft, through international scouting, through trading veterans for young players, may have waned, and that they won’t be willing to commit the same money to acquiring young talent.

We don't know that the money we spent on bringing in guys like Vlad came from, or if we are doing this instead of putting money into the developmental/international market but if thats the case we are in a bad position.

[stef]

This seems to be a re-hash of Meslewski's interview from Mid-February:

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/02/the-keith-law-interview-uncut-and-unedited.htmlñ

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/02/wrapping-it-up-with-keith-law.html

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/02/keith-law-criticizes-the-os-offseason-moves.html

Which generated this thread:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107035

[NewMarketSean]

MacPhail already said they aren't going to be aggressive in the international market.

So I'd rather see the $8 million that "may have been spent internationally" go to Vlad instead of stay in Angelos' pockets.