Doom and Gloom

[MrOrange82]

Honestly, I'm not trying to rant, but I wanted to put my opinions on the proverbial record before the season draws any closer (because really, once we get within a week or so of Opening Day, I'd hope most of the conversations around here would center on "yay, baseball" as opposed to "bah, humbug").

First and foremost, my patience for MacPhail has run its course. There's been a lot of talk in various threads about his failure to develop minor league talent and bring international players into the organization, and a lot of that talk has tied into his signings of players like DLee and Vlad (i.e. since he wasn't going to spend the money on international scouting, he might as well have spent it on those guys). Well, I call BS. Yes, we're now stuck with what he's done, and we might as well try to see the silver lining, but I'm of the opinion that both of those signings were dumb, they remain dumb, and as the season unfolds they will continue to be dumb. Oh, and wasteful. Dumb and wasteful.

Which leads to my second stance: the O's should've signed Dunn or looked for a more permanent 1B solution (even if he wouldn't have been ready for this season) in the minor league system of another team. As I've said previously, I don't know how much/hard the O's looked at other teams' MiLers, or even whether a deal could have been worked out. It just seems as though the majority of offseason chatter involved guys like VMart, Pena, LaRoche, DLee, etc. Stopgaps all, except for VMart (who was a horrible target, regardless, IMO). And Lord knows that if I'd thought DLee was still this hampered by his wrist injury, I'd have been even more vocal about my antipathy towards his signing.

As for Vlad (complaint #3)...terrible signing. For one thing, I don't think he'll come close to mirroring his numbers from last year, which means I'm doubting that he'll perform well enough to either garner good prospects via a deadline trade or a good draft pick if/when he walks after the season. For another, I really hate that his signing moved Luke back into the OF and put Reimold/Pie either on the bench or in the minors. To be clear, I'm not a huge fan or Reimold or Pie, but this is the year in which they need to show what they have (or don't have). Vlad's treading 2011 water in the O's lineup and blocking those guys from regular AB's just stinks (again, IMO) (and yes, of course this depends in part on whether Lee is healthy...because an unhealthy Lee means Luke at 1B and Pie or Reimold in LF...but that's a rather hollow positive, given that it makes the Lee signing look even worse).

Next...I agree wholeheartedly with those posters who said BRob's playing golf (and the team letting it happen) was extraordinarily stupid. Say what you want about the virtues of playing for charity, but the guy's a multimillionaire (i.e. there are other ways he could've helped the charity...and even if face time is that important, he could've merely been on-site to sign autographs and such). Furthermore, I think it's pretty deplorable that the FO, after the mess that was BRob's long absence from the lineup last year, did nothing in the way of contingency-planning for 2B for the long term. Yes, they brought in a bunch of utility players who can cover 2B in a pinch, but apart from Adams (whose viability at 2B has been hotly debated), the O's simply have no good backup plans should BRob prove to be unhealthy again this year. And given how important his place in the lineup and on the diamond is, that's just inexcusable.

I could go on, but I think I'll try to rein this in a bit. Long story short, I really, really don't like what AM has done with this team. From my perspective, it looks as though he's put together something of a paper tiger - a team that could be interesting to watch for one year, given near-perfect health, but which has next to no redundancies or long-term viability. In other words, I think he's built a team that can send him off into the sunset (and towards the commissioner's office?) on a highish note, but that hasn't actually improved much from an organizational standpoint.

Granted, if everything goes perfectly, I think this team can reach up to 84ish wins, maybe more, but the odds of everything going perfectly are remote...and even if they do, the team STILL probably isn't sniffing the playoffs. I think a more realistic win prediction would fall in line with what many commentators have put forward recently (mid/high 70's), especially with how many players look to be heading into the season nursing injuries.

Anyway, that's how I see things. Feel free to chime in with either disagreements or other things you're down on going into 2011. Let's try to get it out of our systems before the season gets rolling.

[oriole]

Dang, its gotta suck to be you to feel so poorly about your team.

Here's to hopeful thinking and a positive mindset... :beerchug1:

...because regular season baseball is right around the corner.

[MrOrange82]

Dang, its gotta suck to be you to feel so poorly about your team.

Here's to hopeful thinking and a positive mindset... :beerchug1:

...because regular season baseball is right around the corner.

Reality is often a pain in the you-know-what

Seriously though, I'll be every bit as excited as everyone else come Opening Day, and just as boisterous when things go well. Consider the above to be an exorcism of what I believe are legitimate gripes.

[EddieEddie]

All decent points that have been discussed here. I'm trying to not let the exitement of this season's potential blind me, but its hard. Its been so damn long.

I'm not sure we would have been happy throwing $60 mil for four years at Adam Dunn and pretending like all our first base problems were solved.

Our output from the infield and the middle of the line up was EMBARASSING last year, and it needed to be addressed, if only for mere respectibility. I would love to see more $$ going in to international, let's hope that these two one year deals (Lee and Vlad) do not kill future investments.

Look, again we are only going as far as our young pitching takes us. Not just this year, but largely over the next 5-7 years. If 3 or 4 of those guys become legit, our system won't appear to be bare forever, and we will have a lot more flexibility going forward.

Let's hope that happens, thats about all we can do. If Macphail had gone and delayed the veteren signings and the like another 2-3 years, there's still no guarantee we would ever get to where we want to be.

[Frobby]

I have a mixed reaction to what you wrote.

1. I think both the Reynolds and Hardy acquisitions were good. If we are able to sign Hardy for a few years, that means we have long-term solutions at 2 of our 3 infield spots where we had openings.

2. I'm not a Dunn fan, especially not on the terms he got. I prefer the Lee deal. I'm not too worried about his wrist. By next year, we may have an internal solution to 1B, and if not, we can look for one outside the organization.

3. BRob played well when he returned to the lineup last year and did not show any ill effects from his back injury. Who would you have liked to have acquired to back him up? We weren't going to pay $4-5 mm for a contingency plan. I agree it would have been nice to have a better hitter than Izturis, but we did need someone capable of backing up SS as well as 2B.

4. My opinion on Vlad is tied to how he performs. If he has a year as good as last year's, or pretty close, I'll just enjoy it and not concern myself with the unanswerable questions about whether that money would have been available for international signings, the draft, etc. if we hadn't signed Vlad. If he takes a serious downward slide, I'll feel that the O's scouting staff let us down.

Overall, my excitement on the day camp opened has been tempered quite a bit as BRob, Lee, Uehara and Duchscherer have had trouble getting on the field. I still think the best case scenario is better than the 84 wins you cite, but I can't say that winning more than 84 games is likely.

[MrOrange82]

All decent points that have been discussed here. I'm trying to not let the exitement of this season's potential from blinding me, but its hard. Its been so damn long.

I'm not sure we would have been happy throwing $60 mil for four years at Adam Dunn and pretending like all our first base problems were solved.

Our output from the infield and the middle of the line up was EMBARASSING last year, and it needed to be addressed, if only for mere respectibility. I would love to see more $$ going in to international, let's hope that these two one year deals (Lee and Vlad) do not kill future investments.

Look, again we are only going as far as our young pitching takes us. Not just this year, but largely over the next 5-7 years. If 3 or 4 of those guys become legit, our system won't appear to be bare forever, and we will have a lot more flexibility going forward.

Let's hope that happens, thats about all we can do. If Macphail had gone had delayed the veteren signinglings and the like another 2-3 years, there's still no guarantee we would ever get to where we want to be.

Dunn was definitely an iffy option, and open to debate. I am certainly more bullish on his potential over the next four years than many people. Given the options (and trying to weigh realistically our odds (and the sensibility) of throwing massive amounts of money at next year's FA's), I think he was our best option this winter.

I do agree with much of what you said, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the young pitchers step up this year, but I'm obviously less than optimistic about the condition of the organization as a whole. The cavalry simply doesn't exist.

[cindyluvsbrady]

You need an Orange Lollipop and a Big Glass of Orange Kool Aide;)

IMO:eek:

BELIEVE

[MrOrange82]

I have a mixed reaction to what you wrote.

1. I think both the Reynolds and Hardy acquisitions were good. If we are able to sign Hardy for a few years, that means we have long-term solutions at 2 of our 3 infield spots where we had openings.

2. I'm not a Dunn fan, especially not on the terms he got. I prefer the Lee deal. I'm not too worried about his wrist. By next year, we may have an internal solution to 1B, and if not, we can look for one outside the organization.

3. BRob played well when he returned to the lineup last year and did not show any ill effects from his back injury. Who would you have liked to have acquired to back him up? We weren't going to pay $4-5 mm for a contingency plan. I agree it would have been nice to have a better hitter than Izturis, but we did need someone capable of backing up SS as well as 2B.

4. My opinion on Vlad is tied to how he performs. If he has a year as good as last year's, or pretty close, I'll just enjoy it and not concern myself with the unanswerable questions about whether that money would have been available for international signings, the draft, etc. if we hadn't signed Vlad. If he takes a serious downward slide, I'll feel that the O's scouting staff let us down.

Overall, my excitement on the day camp opened has been tempered quite a bit as BRob, Lee, Uehara and Duchscherer have had trouble getting on the field. I still think the best case scenario is better than the 84 wins you cite, but I can't say that winning more than 84 games is likely.

I really, really like the Reynolds trade, and I'm excited about his potential in Baltimore. Hardy...I'm more reserved. The problem with him reminds me (in a very minor way) of the situation faced by the Mets with Reyes. Either Hardy will have a good, healthy season and find himself looking for a big(ish) contract, he'll have a healthy, mediocre season and we'll find ourselves saying "meh" about his retention, or he'll once again get bitten by the injury bug and we'll find ourselves in exactly the same position as last year. Don't get me wrong, I MUCH, much prefer him to Izzy (and SS wasn't exactly an easy position to fill this winter), but I'm not quite ready to celebrate his acquisition, either. Time will tell how that plays out.

As for BRob...I think it's just a matter of most of us, without being medical professionals, know how tricky back injuries can be. Sometimes treatment helps, but frequently back issues can resurface without warning, and they're almost uniformly debilitating when it comes to athletics. I think his playing golf this winter was a very poor decision. But beyond that, given how devastating his absence from lineup was last year, and given the apparent impossibility of "replacing" him in any way, shape or form, I would've thought infusing some 2B talent into the system would've been a major priority for the O's. I'm not saying it would've been fair to expect them to have a high-ceiling prospect ready to take over right now, but then again...BRob hasn't been a stranger to injuries (freak and otherwise), so I can't understand why the O's seemingly haven't put much energy into getting guys into the MiL system behind such an important player.

Funnily, I don't really mind the Duchscherer signing, if only because I didn't really expect him to make it through the season healthy. He was a relatively inexpensive, high-upside gamble who wasn't necessarily blocking anyone who absolutely needed to be in the rotation. And now that it looks like he won't be, we still have a couple guys who can step up and replace him. Koji's a similar (though more expensive) story. It would've been pretty sour to not bring him back after how he performed, when healthy, last year, but I wasn't surprised at all by his spring arm troubles.

If my OP had an overarching point, it'd have to be that, whatever happens this year, I don't think the organization as a whole is very healthy, and I'm afraid we're going to find ourselves in pretty bad shape next winter. Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to what might be the Orioles' first .500+ season in quite some time, but after this many years I wish I could say that I had any confidence at all that "a" .500+ season would be closely followed by several more.

[MrOrange82]

You need an Orange Lollipop and a Big Glass of Orange Kool Aide;)

IMO:eek:

BELIEVE

I had a fake-chicken (Morningstar Farms) sandwich earlier. That was kind of orange looking

[Frobby]

If my OP had an overarching point, it'd have to be that, whatever happens this year, I don't think the organization as a whole is very healthy, and I'm afraid we're going to find ourselves in pretty bad shape next winter. Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to what might be the Orioles' first .500+ season in quite some time, but after this many years I wish I could say that I had any confidence at all that "a" .500+ season would be closely followed by several more.

I think your overarching point is fair enough, though you may be overly pessimistic. I think we have a lot riding on our young starting pitchers. If at the end of the year, we've removed any doubt that we have the base for an above average rotation for the next several years, I think we will be able to continue to find offensive solutions where we have holes. But if the pitchers falter or stagnate, we will have a serious problem on our hand.

I can see 2011 going a lot of different ways. Things could look very bright by the end of the year if our younger players flourish and the veterans provide some support. They could look really dark if the young players stagnate and the older guys break down. There are plenty of in-between scenarios. And, what happens in the minors will be very important. We need to finish 2011 feeling like our minor league system is back on track.

To me, the best news so far this spring has been the play of Britton, Reimold, Bell, Snyder, Adams and Mahoney. What those six do in 2011 will say a lot about how many holes we need to fill next winter.

[Lateralus]

I'm at the point where, fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me for 13 years running, shame on me.

I'll root for the O's to go 162-0, but they gotta prove it to me before I realistically think they'll be competing in the playoffs.

[crowmst3k!]

Waiting for SilentJames to put up a Hold Steady video.

[Stotle]

This off-season is clearly a divisive issue at the fanbase ranks. Time will tell if progress is being made or not. I generally echo your sentiments, but am ready to just see what happens, at this point.

Should be an interesting season to say the least. I pray that if the ML team falls short of expectations, that Zach Britton and Manny Machado live up to the hype -- not sure the fanbase could take shaky seasons from those two on top of a 74 win season.

[Frobby]

This off-season is clearly a divisive issue at the fanbase ranks.

Is it? I think the people who are disappointed with the offseason are outnumbered by about 10-1. That's not to say the majority are correct, but I'd say the vast majority of O's fans are pleased with the offseason and excited for the season. I'd say fans were more divided in the several previous offseasons as compared to this one.

For the most part, the people who are disappointed (like you) are the ones who feel that the O's should focus more on long-term rebuilding than on short-term fixes. The vast majority of fans (not talking so much about the OH here) just look at the upcoming season and judge whether the team will be better.

[Orioles West]

If my OP had an overarching point, it'd have to be that, whatever happens this year, I don't think the organization as a whole is very healthy, and I'm afraid we're going to find ourselves in pretty bad shape next winter. Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to what might be the Orioles' first .500+ season in quite some time, but after this many years I wish I could say that I had any confidence at all that "a" .500+ season would be closely followed by several more.

A fair point to be sure, but that is part of why I like the temporary aspect of our payroll increase. Should the team falter, we can trade any or all of the players to rebuild the thinning farm system. There is plenty of building left to do, but if we pick up vets along the way, that can either help in the short term to win now or provide a chance at a longer term piece, via the draft or trade, the bright side shines a little brighter for me heading into this season.

-Don