Fixing Wieters Swing

[JTrea81]

If we are going to shine a light on Wieters, we might as well shine it on Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts as well. Both have looked terrible lately at the plate, especially Roberts.

Wieters isn't the only one not hitting, and in that Tampa series, he had a pretty quick bat. It was more important for him to get on base and work the pitcher lately so that's what he's been trying to do as he hasn't had a ton of chances to drive guys in hitting lower in the lineup.

And he's also done better batting up in the order.

Not sure why Buck moved him down when he was starting to do well.

I don't think people realized how good Texas' pitching really is. And Justin Verlander isn't a slouch either.

In Wieters' slump he has faced Verlander, Lewis, Harrison and Holland, not exactly your typical #4 or #5 starters.

It will be interesting to see how he does vs. the Yankees' arms who aren't as good as the Rangers pitchers.

[K.V.V.]

The key here is to figure out why Wieters is not hitting major league pitching close to what he did in the minors. Saying that major league pitching is better is NOT the answer to this question. There have been plenty of players with minor league numbers a lot worse than Wieters' who have been more successful sooner in their major league career.

One thing that really stands out if you look at Wieters' stats is that he really doesn't do well at all if the pitcher gets ahead in the count. Take a look at these stats from Baseball Reference:

Let's compare this to Brian Roberts:

The only time Brian Roberts hits better than Matt Wieters is when they are behind in the count. In terms of percentages faced in their careers in each situation it's remarkably close between Wieters and Roberts. Both hit ahead in the count about 37% of the time, even in the count about 35% of the time, and behind in the count about 28% of the time.

Here are the career OPS of some other Orioles regulars when they are behind in the count:

Adam Jones - .587

Vladimar Guerrero - .700

Luke Scott - .491

Nick Markakis - .626

Mark Reynolds - .496

Derrek Lee - .556

JJ Hardy - .605

A couple more young non-Orioles players OPS' when they are behind:

Buster Posey - .616

Jason Heyward - .580

Wieters is a much worse hitter behind in the count than most major leaguers. It is safe to say that so far in his career, Matt Wieters is a poor major league hitter behind in the count.

Going one step further - look at this stat. Swinging on the first pitch he sees in a plate appearance, Wieters has an OPS of .864 in his career. In comparison, Brian Roberts has a career OPS of .737 when he swings at the first pitch. Wieters has 6 of his 20 career homeruns on the first pitch.

It's plain to see that so far Wieters just doesn't hit well when the pitcher has an advantage in the count. We don't know why. Perhaps Wieters is a good guess hitter, or he chases pitches too much behind in the count. In any event, I'd rather see Wieters be more aggressive earlier in the count going forward, so there is less of a chance of him falling behind in the count where he hits so poorly.

Curses! Where was this valuable information when I was writing my Wieters story that's running in Monday's Sun? Woe is timing.

[TradeAngelos]

If we are going to shine a light on Wieters, we might as well shine it on Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts as well. Both have looked terrible lately at the plate, especially Roberts.

Umm Roberts and Markakis have been studs for a combined 7,700 plus AB's. The light has been shining on them for years and they have produced time and time again.

Apples meet oranges.

[GoGoPower]

I think it's time for Wieters to abandon switch-hitting and focus on hitting well from whatever side of the plate he's most comfortable with. It's not working for him and it should be easier for him to fix his swing from just one side of the plate rather than both.

I still have hope for him, but he needs to stop trying so hard to make contact instead of just letting it rip and trying to drive the ball. He looks like Cesar Izturis up there. I'd like to see him hanging around Reynolds and trying to emulate his approach at the plate a bit...

[Dagger420]

Players that are 24 and in AA and AAA aren't likely to be that good...There are exceptions but as a rule, you shouldn't usually expect a franchise player if they are still in the minors at that age...and the Orioles spent a lot of money on Wieters to be a franchise, cornerstone player.

I guess maybe I look at it a little differently because I never really bought into the franchise player hype. I saw tape of his swing when they drafted him and I told a friend it'd take him at least 4 years before he was in the MLB. Of course I was looking fairly dumb while he was raking in the minors, but I think my first impression of him was pretty fair at this point.

Varitek was in AAA at 24, Carlos Santana played the bulk of his season last year at AAA at 24. Not many guys are Mauer and Posey. Mauer is an athletic freak that was named high school Quarterback of the Year in the nation and averaged 20 points a game in basketball. Posey was named the BEST college player in the game, whereas Wieters was simply an All-American.

Wieters will be solid, but I think people are comparing him to two superior players.

[Dagger420]

I think it's time for Wieters to abandon switch-hitting and focus on hitting well from whatever side of the plate he's most comfortable with. It's not working for him and it should be easier for him to fix his swing from just one side of the plate rather than both.

I still have hope for him, but he needs to stop trying so hard to make contact instead of just letting it rip and trying to drive the ball. He looks like Cesar Izturis up there. I'd like to see him hanging around Reynolds and trying to emulate his approach at the plate a bit...

I definitely think he looks more smooth right-handed, but of course he hasn't faced any breaking pitches from righties from the right side of the plate in years, so that adjustment may take some time too.

[Dagger420]

If we are going to shine a light on Wieters, we might as well shine it on Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts as well. Both have looked terrible lately at the plate, especially Roberts.

Are you kidding me? Granted Roberts has a poor OBP right now through 8 games, he also has a double, a triple, 2 home runs (which were very clutch) and has driven in 8 runs from the lead off spot. He's producing just not consistently, which is nowhere near compared to Wieters. Not to mention Roberts has taken an 0-7 since he was hospitalized. Wieters has struck out (4) all most as many times as he's gotten a hit (5).

[joeyc]

NattieO'sHon said "Seriously? Cmon man. The kid is in a slump. You are reaching bro."

Dude, this is not a slump. This is who he is. He is never going to be good offensively with that slow bat. Unfortunately, he's a bust, plain and simple.

[nadecir]

Curses! Where was this valuable information when I was writing my Wieters story that's running in Monday's Sun? Woe is timing.

It's amazing. Wieters turns into a poor man's Cesar Izturis when he gets behind in the count.

at 0-1, Wieters has a .476 OPS

at 0-2, Wieters has a .378 OPS

at 1-2, Wieters has a .319 OPS

You can get a good clue about Wieters at-bats from the first pitch. If the first pitch is a strike, Wieters has a career OPS of .513 for those at-bats. If the first pitch is a ball, Wieters has a career .902 OPS for those at-bats.

By the way when I say Wieters turns into a "poor-mans Cesar Izturiz" when he's behind in the count, that's not exactly true. Izturis' OPS behind in the count is .499 compared to Wieters .373. Izturis hits better than Wieters so far in their careers when the pitcher is ahead.

I don't know for sure, but I guess that Wieters sees more first pitch strikes in the majors, and gets behind in the count more in the majors, versus what he saw in the minors. And Wieters seems to be a very good hitter when he can look for his pitch to hit, and a bad hitter when he doesn't have that luxury.

[Gurgi]

Thing is, Wieters bat didn't just become slow overnight. Between Wieters and Hobgood, how will Jordan have a job next year. Guys in the minors throw hard, was Wieters just lucky? I'm not being sarcastic, i'm asking if anyone saw Wieters in the minors play. Could it be Wieters emphasized so much on improving his defense, that he just thought the hitting would come natural after the success in the minors?

I remember him in Bowie and I remember coming home very happy after one night he hit two homeruns in the game from either side of the plate. Both opposite field bombs if I am not mistaken. I raved about it to Sickels on his blog and he loved the opposite field power. But maybe it masked a real fault. That he has a slider speed bat and has to really cheat on the better fastballs in the major leagues. Maybe in college he feasted on 85-90 mph fastballs and cant seem to catch up to 91-95 mph heaters he sees regularly.

It is like he has old man skills.

[TGO]

It's amazing. Wieters turns into a poor man's Cesar Izturis when he gets behind in the count.

at 0-1, Wieters has a .476 OPS

at 0-2, Wieters has a .378 OPS

at 1-2, Wieters has a .319 OPS

You can get a good clue about Wieters at-bats from the first pitch. If the first pitch is a strike, Wieters has a career OPS of .513 for those at-bats. If the first pitch is a ball, Wieters has a career .902 OPS for those at-bats.

By the way when I say Wieters turns into a "poor-mans Cesar Izturiz" when he's behind in the count, that's not exactly true. Izturis' OPS behind in the count is .499 compared to Wieters .373. Izturis hits better than Wieters so far in their careers when the pitcher is ahead.

I don't know for sure, but I guess that Wieters sees more first pitch strikes in the majors, and gets behind in the count more in the majors, versus what he saw in the minors. And Wieters seems to be a very good hitter when he can look for his pitch to hit, and a bad hitter when he doesn't have that luxury.

I think he is afraid to K and chases pitches. He did it in his last AB yesterday. The pitch he popped up to LF that Hamilton made a sliding catch on was a ball, maybe 3-4 inches outside.

[Sports Guy]

Seriously? Cmon man. The kid is in a slump. You are reaching bro.

He has been in a slump for basically his entire career...outside of the last month of his rookie season.

Anyone who thinks people are concerned because of how poor he has looked in 25 at bats this year, then you clearly haven't been paying attention.

So please, enough of this talk about people blowing things out of proportion because of this year because this year is just a continuation of the same issues.

[NewMarketSean]

The most discouraging thing is that Wieters is getting worse. He has shone zero improvement during his career as a hitter. He was a much better hitter the first few months of his rookie season. That is not good.

Thank God he has become a solid defensive catcher otherwise Tatum would be more deserving of the roster spot.

[Sports Guy]

What if we end up with a top 5 staff? He is only 24 and has plenty of time.

Then our young pitching will have hit their ceiling.

We didn't draft Wieters so that our staff could be better.

You could go out and find catchers that work well with pitchers and call good games. A lot of guys have stuck around baseball for far too long because of that skill.

We need Wieters to be a franchise player...He needed to be a 5+ WAR player and he needs to do it with the bat. Enough excuses. Enough bringing up what the pitchers are doing. Enough of this, he still has time. It is all bs.

By now, Wieters should be showing signs of being a stud player or even having already been a stud player.

You know, if Wieters was tearing the cover off the ball this year and was just unlucky, we could at least say we are seeing signs of things. But that isn't the case. His hits are bloops, flares and seeing eye singles. He isn't showing any kind of consistent ability to pull the ball with authority.

These are not good signs. These are the same signs we have seen for much of his career, outside of a few hot stretches here and there.

When he ended as strong as he did in his rookie year, it appeared that 2010 would be his year...and what happened? He REGRESSED. He didn't get better...he didn't show signs of getting better. He got worse. That's not a good thing.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Seriously? Cmon man. The kid is in a slump. You are reaching bro.

This is not a slump.