TT: Is Matt Wieters really worse than Cesar Izturis when behind in count?

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/blog/tonys-take/183/is-matt-wieters-really-worse-than-cesar-itzuris-when-behind-in-count

Hangout poster nadecir made a great post in Greg Pappas' thread on fixing Matt Wieters' swing. I wanted to make sure it didn't get lost because it really had some shocking statistics and made me do a little research on how pitchers are pitching him.

[Gurgi]

So the educated guess is that he really does have a slow bat and is guessing at the plate? If this is true there is no way to fix this.

[Guest rbrhett]

I mentioned this a LONG time ago (last season) and it never gained any traction. If I had time, I could probably find the post, but it also looks like all of the posts from last year are gone.

My advice was for Wieters to shorten up with two strikes and put the ball in play.

[Slappy]

I'd be interested to hear from the scouting posters on this. What are the factors that can lead to such a wide discrepancy in what a player has done his entire pre-majors career and fall flat on his face at the ML level? Can they be predicted with any accuracy ahead of time by tendencies or whatever?

In any case, truly a great post. Tony, you might want to add a link to the original post so it can be repped by those that missed it.

[Tony-OH]

I'd be interested to hear from the scouting posters on this. What are the factors that can lead to such a wide discrepancy in what a player has done his entire pre-majors career and fall flat on his face at the ML level? Can they be predicted with any accuracy ahead of time by tendencies or whatever?

In any case, truly a great post. Tony, you might want to add a link to the original post so it can be repped by those that missed it.

Great point. You can find Nadecir's post here. I've already given him my 25 rep points!!

[Sports Guy]

The question is, how important is this stat?

I mean, almost all hitters are poor when they are behind in the count.

Now, are they THIS poor? Probably not and that is an issue but I don't think it is the reason why he has struggled.

[Sports Guy]

That's the whole point of the post. Wieters' numbers are at the bottom of the spectrum. It's either a quirky stat or it means something significant. I'll go for "it means something" at this point.

Right...It means something. I agree.

But is it a root cause to his issues?

I almost wonder if there is a mental thing with him about where he is in the lineup. I know that sounds a little foolish but when he was interviewed at the end of his rookie season, when he was hitting well, he talked about how he has always hit 3rd in the lineup and is very comfortable there. Is it really as simple as that? I wouldn't think so but I guess it would be foolish to rule anything out at this point.

[webbrick2010]

Be interesting to correlate these number to how many times he puts the ball in play ahead, even, and behind in the count. Seems to me his problem may be not being agressive enough early in the count. He seems to like to see a few picthces, but gets behind and as the numbers show really strggles.

[nadecir]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/blog/tonys-take/183/is-matt-wieters-really-worse-than-cesar-itzuris-when-behind-in-count

Hangout poster nadecir made a great post in Greg Pappas' thread on fixing Matt Wieters' swing. I wanted to make sure it didn't get lost because it really had some shocking statistics and made me do a little research on how pitchers are pitching him.

Thanks for the kind words Tony, and also thanks for doing some more research on the subject.

[nadecir]

The question is, how important is this stat?

I mean, almost all hitters are poor when they are behind in the count.

Now, are they THIS poor? Probably not and that is an issue but I don't think it is the reason why he has struggled.

Wieters is much worse than most of the Orioles (and probably most major leaguers) behind in the count. All hitters are worse hitters behind in the count, but Wieters is really bad in comparison. So for about 28% of his at-bats (when Wieters hits behind in the count), Wieters hits worse than even Cesar Izturiz in the same situation. The entire difference between Brian Roberts hitting and Matt Wieters hitting is that Wieters is SO POOR behind in the count. Wieters is a good major league hitter when he is ahead in the count.

Fangraphs has a couple of interesting stats that shed a little light on the subject.

Wieters had a slightly better year in 2009 (his rookie season in the majors) than he did in 2010. In 2009, Matt Wieters swung at 25.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing %). Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 53% of the time.

In 2010, Wieters swung at 30% of the pitches outside the strike zone. Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 59.6% of the time. Combined with the other data, it suggests than Wieters regression in 2010 can perhaps partially be explained by pitchers getting ahead of Wieters, and Wieters expanding the strike zone as a result of getting behind in the count.

In turn, Wieters Z-Swing % is been trending down in his first three years. In short, it seems he is swinging at more balls than strikes than he did initially. Instead of Wieters pitch recognition improving, it seems it is on the decline.

So far this year, Wieters is swinging at 31.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone, and pitchers are throwing him a first pitch strike 58.6% of the time.

Maybe the pitching book on Wieters is to get ahead of him, and then he will expand the zone by swinging at off-speed pitches off the plate. And perhaps Wieters should respond by being more aggressive in ripping these first pitch strikes.

[Slappy]

"In his rookie year he saw 59.2% fastballs and he put up an impressive 6.6 wFB against them. He struggled however against off speed pitches putting up a -4.6 against sliders, -1.4 against curveballs and -2.4 against changeups. Last year he saw 57.8% fastballs and dropped to a -1.1 which is probably why people started to suggest his bat was slow. He still struggled however on offspeed pitches (-1.4 SL, -2.2 CB, -1. Ch)."

Could someone explain wFB? I couldn't even find it in BP's sabermetrics glossary.

[eb45]

Runs above average for each pitch.

[Sports Guy]

Wieters is much worse than most of the Orioles (and probably most major leaguers) behind in the count. All hitters are worse hitters behind in the count, but Wieters is really bad in comparison. So for about 28% of his at-bats (when Wieters hits behind in the count), Wieters hits worse than even Cesar Izturiz in the same situation. The entire difference between Brian Roberts hitting and Matt Wieters hitting is that Wieters is SO POOR behind in the count. Wieters is a good major league hitter when he is ahead in the count.

Fangraphs has a couple of interesting stats that shed a little light on the subject.

Wieters had a slightly better year in 2009 (his rookie season in the majors) than he did in 2010. In 2009, Matt Wieters swung at 25.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing %). Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 53% of the time.

In 2010, Wieters swung at 30% of the pitches outside the strike zone. Pitchers threw Wieters a first pitch strike 59.6% of the time. Combined with the other data, it suggests than Wieters regression in 2010 can perhaps partially be explained by pitchers getting ahead of Wieters, and Wieters expanding the strike zone as a result of getting behind in the count.

In turn, Wieters Z-Swing % is been trending down in his first three years. In short, it seems he is swinging at more balls than strikes than he did initially. Instead of Wieters pitch recognition improving, it seems it is on the decline.

So far this year, Wieters is swinging at 31.7% of the pitches outside the strike zone, and pitchers are throwing him a first pitch strike 58.6% of the time.

Maybe the pitching book on Wieters is to get ahead of him, and then he will expand the zone by swinging at off-speed pitches off the plate. And perhaps Wieters should respond by being more aggressive in ripping these first pitch strikes.

And see most of these numbers are the numbers that i feel are more important.

Yes, he sucks when he is behind the count. I get that. He is 200-300 points worse than you would expect. But the real issue is why is he getting behind the count and what is he doing to change that?

That is what I mean. While it is important to know the numbers you talked about, I am more focused on the cause of this.

But at the end of the day, as good as these numbers are, you still fail to see a guy who is aggressive..You fail to see someone hitting the ball with authority on any kind of consistent basis.

His bat isn't slow because he is behind in the count. His swing isn't long because he is behind in the count.

He is either just not that good or his swing is so messed up, that he can't be any good right now.

If the swing is really messed up, why did't Crow catch it? Why hasn't Pressley? What haven't our scouts?

[Guest rbrhett]

And see most of these numbers are the numbers that i feel are more important.

Yes, he sucks when he is behind the count. I get that. He is 200-300 points worse than you would expect. But the real issue is why is he getting behind the count and what is he doing to change that?

That is what I mean. While it is important to know the numbers you talked about, I am more focused on the cause of this.

But at the end of the day, as good as these numbers are, you still fail to see a guy who is aggressive..You fail to see someone hitting the ball with authority on any kind of consistent basis.

His bat isn't slow because he is behind in the count. His swing isn't long because he is behind in the count.

He is either just not that good or his swing is so messed up, that he can't be any good right now.

If the swing is really messed up, why did't Crow catch it? Why hasn't Pressley? What haven't our scouts?

I don't think it is his bat speed, it is his approach with two strikes. He does not shorten his swing or change his approach. Pressley has worked with Reynolds on this and the results (except from yesterday) have been good. When you get two strikes, shorten up and hit the ball hard in play. Now in all fairness, Wieters has hit the ball hard a few times this year but they were caught and he almost hit one out yesterday.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think it is his bat speed, it is his approach with two strikes. He does not shorten his swing or change his approach. Pressley has worked with Reynolds on this and the results (except from yesterday) have been good. When you get two strikes, shorten up and hit the ball hard in play. Now in all fairness, Wieters has hit the ball hard a few times this year but they were caught and he almost hit one out yesterday.

The bat speed sucks for the entire at bat, in most cases.

When you are trying to point out that he has hit a few balls hard at times, then you know there is a problem.

His LD% this year is 10.5% and last year it was under 16%...Those are terrible numbers.