Measuring Wieters' impact on Orioles isn't easy - Kevin Van Valkenburg, The Baltimore Sun

[SrMeowMeow]

You are really dense. The fact that you don't get this is mind boggling. Just please stop conversing with me.

Yes. I get it. Everybody gets it. You expected Wieters to be a 900 OPS Gold-Glove franchise mainstay regularly posting 5-7 WAR seasons. You expect this because the Orioles "need" that kind of superstar to contend. Those things are unreasonable. Reality tells us that we would be very fortunate to have a 740 OPS, elite defensive catcher. That's a great career for a top 5 draft pick. A great career. That's what you don't understand. You lack perspective.

[Tony-OH]

I agree that this thread isn't necessarily "super reactionary", but I disagree with the bolded. Yes, Wieters was bad last year. This year, he's been nothing, he's played in like 8 games.

Did you really waste a post to tell me 8 games is a small sample size? Sorry I didn't put "so far" before this year. I thought that was obvious.

[Going Underground]

Why do I keep hearing that Wieters has alot on his plate ? Buster Posey came up last year,was in a pennant race and was in the playoffs. I think Posey had alot on his plate with the pressure of the pennant race and coming up during the year. The O's were never in contention.

[Sports Guy]

Why do I keep hearing that Wieters has alot on his plate ? Buster Posey came up last year,was in a pennant race and was in the playoffs. I think Posey had alot on his plate with the pressure of the pennant race and coming up during the year. The O's were never in contention.

People are searching for excuses, whether they are valid or not.

[El Gordo]

According to Fangraphs ther are 12 catchers with 900 + PA from 2009-2011. Interms of offense(wOBA) Wieters is 7th behind:

Mauer

VMart

Posada

McCann

Napoli

Y.Molina

Which would you rather have over Wieters? I'd take Mauer for his bat, Molina for his glove, and McCann as the best combination of glove and Bat. So for me there are only 3 catchers in MLB I would rather have than Wieters. 4 if you include Posey, but I want to wait another season before I anoint him.

[Phantom]

Hypotethetical #1:

The Orioles win 92 games this year, post an ERA of 3.75, and to a man, the pitchers and Buck Showalter say that Matt Wieters' pitch-calling and defense was a big part of the reason why the pitching improved. However, Wieters posts a .695 OPS like he did last year. Are you disappointed with Wieters overall, or not?

Hypothetical #2:

The Orioles win 82 games, post an ERA of 4.35, and to a man, the pitchers and Buck Showalter say that Matt Wieters' pitch-calling and defense was a big part of the reason why the pitching improved. However, Wieters posts a .695 OPS like he did last year. Are you disappointed with Wieters overall, or not?

Speaking for myself, the team results and pitching results will matter in how I balance the compliments paid to his pitch calling and his offensive production. Just win, baby.

Well, the team result will affect my view on every player, so that's not really fair. Everyone should feel free to do their best Izturis imitation if we win a ring. To me, the pitching staffs performance will still fall 94% on the pitchers, 5% on the coaching, and 1% on Wieters.

[Tony-OH]

So your saying Wieters has done nothing to change from last year and has not and will not do anything different this year than last year?

We can't give Wieters the benefit of a reasonable sample size, 150 PA's this year, before saying that he's done nothing to change?

I guess at the age of 24 I'm willing to give a guy 30 games to show adjustments or improvements. Didn't they say Presley started working with MW on shortening his swing about 2/3 of the way through ST? On March 16 MW had a BA of .207 in ST. Over the next 8 games, did he not raise his average to .283? I'm not saying we've seen improvement yet, but am I the only one willing to say we need to wait and see if those adjustments can make a difference this year, and not do so in 9 games?

What I'm saying is that people are not basing their concerns off of nine games which would be "super reactionary". They are basing it off last year, this year's spring training and the nine games so far combined. If you only want to count this year with Presley than I guess I understand your point, but either way Wieters has not shown a flash of power this spring or so far through nine games. That doesn't mean the sky is falling, but coming off a disappointing offensive season last year, I can understand why people are concerned after his poor spring and start to the 2011 season and I don't feel it's "Super reactionary" in the least bit. I think when you label people that way it's derogatory.

I'm not saying that Wieters can't improve offensively, in fact, I think he has to improve because he can't possibly be this bad after the numbers he put up in college and in the minors. Saying that, I believe there is little chance he'll ever be an impact bat kind of guy but personally would be happy with a Varitek-type bat to go along with his defense.

[Phantom]

According to Fangraphs ther are 12 catchers with 900 + PA from 2009-2011. Interms of offense(wOBA) Wieters is 7th behind:

Mauer

VMart

Posada

McCann

Napoli

Y.Molina

Which would you rather have over Wieters? I'd take Mauer for his bat, Molina for his glove, and McCann as the best combination of glove and Bat. So for me there are only 3 catchers in MLB I would rather have than Wieters. 4 if you include Posey, but I want to wait another season before I anoint him.

Carlos Santana and Posey are no brainers for me.

[flashjordnk]

What I'm saying is that people are not basing their concerns off of nine games which would be "super reactionary". They are basing it off last year, this year's spring training and the nine games so far combined. If you only want to count this year with Presley than I guess I understand your point, but either way Wieters has not shown a flash of power this spring or so far through nine games. That doesn't mean the sky is falling, but coming off a disappointing offensive season last year, I can understand why people are concerned after his poor spring and start to the 2011 season and I don't feel it's "Super reactionary" in the least bit. I think when you label people that way it's derogatory.

I'm not saying that Wieters can't improve offensively, in fact, I think he has to improve because he can't possibly be this bad after the numbers he put up in college and in the minors. Saying that, I believe there is little chance he'll ever be an impact bat kind of guy but personally would be happy with a Varitek-type bat to go along with his defense.

Fair enough...again not meant to be derogatory towards anyone. Again...I thought this conversation was about how people interpret Wieters value. Not necessarily about his offense per se. Look I'll slam MW as not being able to have an 'impact bat' if the trends continue in this direction, especially after he gets a few more ABs and time in with Presley. Can I understand that people are concerned about his offense? Sure! Do I think he still has a lot more value right now than a lot of guys on this team? Also, yes.

If this thread was to voice concerns over MW's swing, then shouldn't it be the MW has a slow bat thread and not an assessment of KVV's article about trying to measure the value of what MW brings to the table? Voicing our concerns about his bat are legitimate and true, but they aren't the only side to what he brings. And if we're going to talk about the guys who call a good game and are good defensively, I did feel the need to step up and point out that MW is a lot better than most of those guys being mentioned.

[ledzepp8]

Did you really waste a post to tell me 8 games is a small sample size? Sorry I didn't put "so far" before this year. I thought that was obvious.

Well this seems a little harsh. Maybe just say what you mean next time.

[eddie83]

Why do I keep hearing that Wieters has alot on his plate ? Buster Posey came up last year,was in a pennant race and was in the playoffs. I think Posey had alot on his plate with the pressure of the pennant race and coming up during the year. The O's were never in contention.

It's a fair point but the pitching talent SF has and the ballpark they play in and the division aren't comparable. It's a hell of alot different in the AL East with young unproven guys outside of Guthrie.

I think too many people made too big of a deal out of Wieters minor league numbers and expected a Bench or Mauer type. This is a very big year for him, no question. He needs to turn on the ball more and be more aggresive. You know he is strong with his power to the opposite field, there is no reason that can't translate to being more of a pull hitter.

[Hallas]

I read somewhere that Wieters' obscene PECOTA following his hi-A, AA, and AAA campaigns were the result of a park effects bug when calculating minor-league equivalents for him. Considering that his PECOTA was a large reason for his hype, I'd say that while he has underperformed by any standard, the expectations for him were probably a bit unrealistic.

[Sports Guy]

I read somewhere that Wieters' obscene PECOTA following his hi-A, AA, and AAA campaigns were the result of a park effects bug when calculating minor-league equivalents for him. Considering that his PECOTA was a large reason for his hype, I'd say that while he has underperformed by any standard, the expectations for him were probably a bit unrealistic.

Was it unrealistic to expect him to be an 850ish OPS hitter by now?

[Frobby]

Was it unrealistic to expect him to be an 850ish OPS hitter by now?

Definitely not. I would have expected that, for sure. In fact, I would have thought that was pretty conservative.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

According to Fangraphs ther are 12 catchers with 900 + PA from 2009-2011. Interms of offense(wOBA) Wieters is 7th behind:

Mauer

VMart

Posada

McCann

Napoli

Y.Molina

Which would you rather have over Wieters? I'd take Mauer for his bat, Molina for his glove, and McCann as the best combination of glove and Bat. So for me there are only 3 catchers in MLB I would rather have than Wieters. 4 if you include Posey, but I want to wait another season before I anoint him.

I dont have to wait. I will take him now straight up.