What does this team lack that is needed for us to contend?

[Sports Guy]

You originally asked what was needed for the O's to contend starting in 2012. You also made sure to qualify that you were not talking about the improvements the organization obviously needs. Just the ML roster. So why are you now discussing the structure and intelligence of Tampa and Toronto

It kind of evolved into that. But I agree, that's what i asked for...And pretty much everyone, but you it seems, seems to think we need to add a lot more to our team to contend in 2012. But looking long term, there are also other concerns.

[Fan4Life]

Seriously to contend??? In the AL East?? Need two impact offensive players, for example Fielder to play 1B, and Kemp to play LF

Need a legitimate #1 Starter, like a Jarred Weaver, James Shields, Price, or Felix Hernandez

Need another legitimate starting pitcher to round out rotation.

Need to release Gonzalez and add two legitimate LH specialists.

Need a legitimate closer.

I think this is really close aside from the LH specialist. Problem is we won't pay for a Felix type ace or a Fielder type 1b. So, in general terms when talking about competing, you have to be limiting the conversation to the Wildcard, which expands next year. So as was pointed out, we will hold tight to hoping some of our guys hit their ceilings while the other teams struggle some. Otherwise, we will never compete, contend, etc etc.

[TGO]

We need one .900+ and one .850+ OPS hitters. It almost doesn't matter what position they play, though I'd prefer if they were at least average-ish on defense.

And we need an ace. For simplicity's sake I will quantify this as a guy who can give you 5 WAR, though that may be very slightly high (there were only 7 or so guys in the AL to hit that in 2010). Could be 4.8 or 4.9 or something like that. Guthrie last year was 4.3, to give you an idea, and his best was 4.6 in 2008. [these are BB-Ref #s, Fangraphs may be different]

Everything else would fall into place around those three players.

[Big Al]

A hard salary cap

[Going Underground]

I think we had this same discussion last year. Jones,Wieters or Markakis don't become really good or elite players,we will be below average. The O's draft high every year and when will they get that elite player? Cano.Youkilis and Longoria were all drafted by their teams. The O's get early draft picks and never turn into that type of player. The pitchers are not scared of the O's lineup.

The O's need a #1 starter,leftfielder and an impact bat at first. A real one and not over the hill or often injured. The O's have the second least RBI's from left field and tied for last with four teams with no stolen bases. We need more speed on the team.

I had the O's winning 75 games this year. I think 70 might be closer.

[Camden_yardbird]

IMO the Os aren't going to get a TOR starter in the next few years unless they already have him. I think the Orioles have plenty of candidates, but I really doubt AM trades or pays for one.

Also, I don't get why some people are saying you need a high K rate ace. It doesn't matter if its Maddux or Ryan... an ace is by definition an ace.

[clapdiddy]

CF is set too. Also, 3B for the next 2 years after this. 2B should be fine for a couple, and we should resign Hardy at SS.

I'm still not sold on CF. I really love Jones' potential...and if he winds up doing what he's done the last two years, he's certainly a valuable piece. I'm just not sure that he's going to keep progressing.

[Sports Guy]

By the end of '11 we will have more evidence as to what the O's are building around in-terms of (Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Matusz, Britton, Arrieta).

It is fine to expect regression from Roberts and Scott (and Guthrie)... I agree... said as much initially. Expect the same regression or more from the even older parts of our divisional foes

Of course, the drop of the division foes isn't as problematic as ours because they are dropping production levels that were at, in some cases, HOF levels.

It is fine to question just how good our young parts are... ask the same questions of our divisional foes.

Sure, the questions are always the same...But looking at pure talent and upside puts their young players, especially those still in the minors, on a different level than ours.

Again, if you look at what I said was necessary to contend for the division.... vs. what you said was needed for contention.. we are basically in agreement.

No we aren't...I said 2-3 big bats...That in addition to what we have...I said a TOR starter..again, in addition to what we have. Bullpen talent..in addition to what we have. That's not agreement.

With Scott at DH, Pie/Reimold in LF, a D.Lee equivalent (.750 to .800 OPS expected production), Hardy resigned, and no starter added; my opinion is that team should contend for that proposed 2nd Wild Card

And I would disagree with this. That sounds like a similar team to what we have now...a 75-85 win team.

With Scott at DH, an addition in LF, Fielder at 1st, Hardy resigned, and another starter added; I'd expect that team to contend for the division.

Depends on the starter and the LFer but I agree this makes gets them closer if you improve the pen.

If that 2nd WC is going to happen, that changes plenty

It means we can get in by winning 2-3 less games. That does change things...but in your scenario, I still don't see us at that level.

[LookitsPuck]

I still think this team is a .500 team this year. But to compete:

1. We need our young pitching to really step up their game. A combination of Guthrie, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman/Bergesen has the potential to be excellent, but I still believe we need another innings eater who can put up a 4.00-4.25 ERA. Basically a Guthrie clone, but hopefully on the cheap.

2. We need an established, threatening force in the middle of the lineup. He NEEDS to get on base, take pitches, and crush the ball, i.e. a Mark Tex. Derrek Lee is great on paper, and may very well be someone close to what we need, but he is not long term. Ideally a guy like Prince Fielder, but not necessarily Prince Fielder.

3. A good defensive and somewhat respectable hitter in LF. Luke Scott's range is pretty bad. Felix Pie is a Crawford-light. I had decent hopes for him to be a 750 OPS guy with great defense. Basically Felix Pie was our Brett Gardner with more pop, but poor base running skills. I'd give up stolen bases for more pop, but Pie needs to be consistent and healthy. With that said, we need a solid LF option both with the bat and with glove/feet.

4. Solid bullpen. Right now the only guys I trust with the ball are: Koji, Johnson, and Berken. Noone else. Accardo? Low risk, high reward guy, but not exactly good with his control. Kevin Gregg may very well turn it around, but he's Mike Gonzalez 2.0 this year. And...Mike Gonzalez. Rupe, Rapada are both cannon fodder. Get cheap, effective bullpen arms. We need to be better at identifying good bullpen arms.

[NewMarketSean]

We have no sure fire #4 hitter, no true ace, no shut down bullpen -- and no one has shown the potential to be any of those, except maybe for the ace (Britton and Matusz).

[Sports Guy]

The one contribution that I felt Rshack made to this board was his 15 player rule.

Essentially, he said that you need 15 very good players to be a contender. Not that the other 10 aren't important but your bench/BP/back of rotation guys are similar on every club.

He felt 3 in the pen, 3 in the rotation and your starting 9.

If you agree with that theory and you look at this team over the next few years, how many of those 15 players do we currently have?

[stef]

If you agree with that theory and you look at this team over the next few years, how many of those 15 players do we currently have?

Well, not many. And that goes to poor drafts and poor development and poor international presence.

Rotation:

Matusz

Britton

Arrieta--maybe

Pen:

Berken--maybe and he is a middle reliever and needs to stay healthy

Johnson!

Starting nine:

You could make the case for zero.

Optimistically, four: Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Machado

[clapdiddy]

The one contribution that I felt Rshack made to this board was his 15 player rule.

Essentially, he said that you need 15 very good players to be a contender. Not that the other 10 aren't important but your bench/BP/back of rotation guys are similar on every club.

He felt 3 in the pen, 3 in the rotation and your starting 9.

If you agree with that theory and you look at this team over the next few years, how many of those 15 players do we currently have?

I suppose looking at it that way, you have:

C - Wieters

RF - Markakis

CF- Jones

2B - Roberts

Those 4 guys could be part of a championship team, although I'd only go another year or two with Roberts due to his health issues.

P - Matusz

P - Britton

These two guys could pitch on any team, and could be a nice #1/#2 tandem. Arrieta COULD be a third one, but I'm more inclined to have him as one of the 10 and not the 15. I don't think any of the other starting pitchers we have on the team are in the 15. I think Johnson and Berken could be in the 3 reliever mix, but I'm not sold on them. Koji is definitely one of the three relievers, but he's too fragile.

Potentially, you could also include Machado and/or Schoop in this mix, but they are too far away. Guys like Hoes, Avery, Bundy, Reimold, Bell, and maybe a few others are some of the "10's" as well.

I'd say that's about it at this point.

[Sports Guy]

You said 2-3 big bats... I said an addition in LF (presumably better than Pie or Reimold), and Fielder.

You said a TOR starter.... I said another starter (and previously said which would slot each of Matusz, Guthrie, Britton, and Arrieta down).

You are mentioning the bullpen... I did not. I mentioned Hardy, you did not.

You will have to explain how that is not basic agreement.

I think we need those things to contend..period.

Whether its for the division or the 2nd WC.

Just adding another DLee equivalent to what we have is the same thing as what we currently have. Yes, we should have some improvement from youth but also more decline from vets.

That's not a contending team.

[Sports Guy]

Markakis (1), Jones (2), Wieters (3), Roberts (4), Scott (5), Reynolds (6)

Matusz (7), Britton (8), Guthrie (9), Arrieta (10), Tillman (11), Bergesen (12), Johnson (13), Berken (14)

Hardy, if resigned, (15)

I wouldn't have a problem with people not including Tillman, or Bergesen... but I think both are capable of league average production as a 5th starter in the AL this year, and that is valuable piece.

I don't think the bullpen is a huge issue. As the starters improve, so will the pen. Gregg and Gonzalez are both a mess right now, but they can both contribute. Who knows what happens with Uehara for '12?

Tillman, BB, BRob, Scott, JJ and Berken don't belong IMO.