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Beato throws 3 more scoreless innings


Frobby

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1) It's 17 innings.

2) It's 17 innings with a leverage index well below 1.00, so it's almost all mopup work.

3) His walk rate of 1.6 per nine is half of his established level in the minors.

4) His K rate of 5.6 per nine is well below average for a reliever, but in line with his minor league resume.

5) His BABIP is a fantastically unsustainable .191.

6) In the minors, facing far inferior batters, he allowed a homer every 10 innings. So far with the Mets he's allowed none.

7) He's allowed four unearned runs.

Maybe Beato makes the O's look foolish in the long run. But I think it's just as likely that he allows 12 runs in his next 9 innings and folks go back to wondering when he's returned to Baltimore's system.

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To add to what Drungo said, his swinging strike % is poor, as are his contact %s. Combine with the BABip and I think it's pretty clear he's getting some lucky contact. Being in mop up situations, it seems likely that he is getting some antsy hitters trying to hit 5-run homers instead of taking walks or waiting for good pitches.

His FIP is still great, while not zero, but that is based on his BB rate being so much lower than it normally is. If he keeps up a 1.6 rate then he'll be a pretty good reliever.

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1) It's 17 innings.

2) It's 17 innings with a leverage index well below 1.00, so it's almost all mopup work.

3) His walk rate of 1.6 per nine is half of his established level in the minors.

4) His K rate of 5.6 per nine is well below average for a reliever, but in line with his minor league resume.

5) His BABIP is a fantastically unsustainable .191.

6) In the minors, facing far inferior batters, he allowed a homer every 10 innings. So far with the Mets he's allowed none.

7) He's allowed four unearned runs.

Maybe Beato makes the O's look foolish in the long run. But I think it's just as likely that he allows 12 runs in his next 9 innings and folks go back to wondering when he's returned to Baltimore's system.

To add to what Drungo said, his swinging strike % is poor, as are his contact %s. Combine with the BABip and I think it's pretty clear he's getting some lucky contact. Being in mop up situations, it seems likely that he is getting some antsy hitters trying to hit 5-run homers instead of taking walks or waiting for good pitches.

His FIP is still great, while not zero, but that is based on his BB rate being so much lower than it normally is. If he keeps up a 1.6 rate then he'll be a pretty good reliever.

All fair enough points. I wasn't trying to make the case that he's likely to have sustained success. I was just observing that he's been successful so far.

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All fair enough points. I wasn't trying to make the case that he's likely to have sustained success. I was just observing that he's been successful so far.

Don't backtrack Rick. You said he's making the Orioles look foolish for not protecting him. That means you are expecting him to have sustained success or else why would the Orioles be foolish for not protecting him? Can't have it both ways my friend. ;)

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I don't know if he's going to make us look foolish or not but I do think the O's did a poor job of managing Beato's minor league career. While I recognize that starters are more valuable than relievers and it makes sense to give players a chance to cut it as a starter first, many of us were noting that Beato was languishing in that role for too long - and chewing up valuable service time

Perhaps more importantly, knowing that we had a decision to make on Beato this past offseason, I feel strongly that we should have pushed him to more advanced levels more quickly -- especially considering his pedigree.

The only "advantage" to having a poor MLB team like we did last year is that it gives the team a chance to audition players for the future. We really had nothing to lose. The MLB team was going nowhere. If he got blasted a few times, we've learned something and he's probably less attractive to other teams in the Rule 5. If he holds his own or better, we should work harder to find space for him (and we had the space).

I think we mismanaged this one even if he gets returned. It just didn't make sense. I hope we are looking ahead and push players for whom a decision is needed this offseason.

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Don't backtrack Rick. You said he's making the Orioles look foolish for not protecting him. That means you are expecting him to have sustained success or else why would the Orioles be foolish for not protecting him? Can't have it both ways my friend. ;)

Hey, I said "he's making us look foolish for not protecting him so far." Look it up!

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Well, his earned run-less streak will continue for quite a while longer, as he's been placed on the DL. Elbow tendinitis, which is usually what's reported when all they know is it hurts too much to play, but nobody has any idea why.

Usually a DL stint for a Rule 5er is met with coughs and laughter, since it's often just cover for wanting a real player on the roster. But this looks legit, since he's been pitching pretty well and has been replaced with a retread journeyman.

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