At this time of year, how many prospects would the O's be looking at for the no. 4 pick?

[allstar1579]

I think the Bundy angle is and has been pretty obvious. I'm sure JJ has been following Bundy for several years.

Gray would not be the prototypical JJ prospect and I would be surprised if Gray is in the discussion.

IMO, our list is Cole, Rendon, Starling, Bundy and Hultzen.

I'd throw Bradley in there too, he's EXACTLY JJ's MO. Groundball pitching lefty.

[RVAbird]

I'd throw Bradley in there too, he's EXACTLY JJ's MO. Groundball pitching lefty.

Bradley is absolutely in the discussion.

[Fan4Life]

Well you just have to do the math. Those that can't add, don't understand.

Wieters, Arrieta and Britton are a big part of the core that the O's are built on. Their agent is Scott Boras. The odds that they will extend and not go through free agency is very low.

Wieters is in his 2nd contract year. He will be a free agent after the 2015 season.

Arrieta and Britton are in their first contract year. They will be free agents after the 2016 season (If they send Britton to the minors for 20 days he will be 2017)

Sign a first round college player and his development years in the minors are probably 2012 and 2013. There is at least one and maybe two years in the majors before they are close to their peak. (See Wieters, Matusz and Arrieta to verify this). That is 2015 at a minimum. That means that college draft choice gets to help Wieters and company for a year to win a pennant. Two years for Arrieta.

The same scenario works for a high school player if he can make it to the majors in two years.

If the high school player take three or more years to get to the majors, plus develop for a year on the major league roster its 2016 or longer and Wieters in gone and maybe Arrieta and Britton as well.

So do the math and the player that can make the majors in two years benefits the O's the most to help the current team be a playoff team. That is probably a college player or an excellent high school player with a two year minor league development cycle.

The clock is ticking.

I think this is a logical outlook however, I'd have to think if none of Wieters, Britton and Arrietta are likely to sign an extension, I'd foresee them being moved at least a year before they're available for FA which speeds up your timetable even more.