Are There Any Good Third-Base Coaches?

[BaltimoreTerp]

This thread is somewhat inspired by my disbelief in John Russell sending a runner when the Seattle left fielder was throwing the ball before the runner had rounded third. However, it is a question I have had for a while.

As an Orioles fan, I can't remember the last third-base coach I honestly liked. I guess it would be Cal Ripken, Sr. However, he was so long ago and so early in my baseball memories that most of it is simply hearsay from others. More recently, Russell, Juan Samuel, Tom Trebelhorn...I don't remember thinking that any did that well of a job in that position, even if they showed competence elsewhere.

Now, most would simply write this off as another aspect of the incompetence of the Orioles over the last fifteen years. I'm not so sure. Thinking about every reference to a third-base coach I have seen among all of my reading, I cannot remember more than a handful, if any, that have been positive.

As an example, I have read Bill Simmons' book on the lead-up to the 2004 Red Sox a couple times, and within the various columns there are numerous references to one third-base coach in particular who the Red Sox fans hated with a similar passion to their love of Pedro and Nomar and any player.

I wonder if this is simply another situation where the mind is simply looking for what it wants to see and ignores the rest, similar to how many people view the idea of "clutch" performance and dozens of other issues? Or whether the ability to process all of the variables in a send/hold scenario and judge the odds of a successful scoring play, while obviously very difficult to do on the fly, is simply too difficult for most who attempt the job?

[PaulFolk]

I think it's just a case where fans always remember the terrible sends, but don't really pay attention to the good sends.

I'd be interested to know if there's some sort of statistic that can evaluate how well 3B coaches do their jobs, in terms of getting the fewest runners thrown out, holding more runners with less than 2 outs, etc. There'd be a lot of subjectivity involved, so I don't know how well that stuff could be measured.

[Nite]

Force a good throw... more often then not a bad throw will occur...

[waroriole]

Perlozzo

[TGO]

Force a good throw... more often then not a bad throw will occur...

I don't know if you're serious or sarcastic but this is certainly not true in the majors. On plays like the Hardy play a major league defense gets the runner probably 95+ percent of the time. Even on plays with a relay (two throws, twice as much opportunity to screw up) these players are going to get the ball near the plate and the catcher is going to catch it, even if it comes in high or bounces, and at that point it's a matter of whether the runner beat the ball. Usually bad throws happen on plays where the throw has to be absolutely perfect to get the runner (see that Markakis throw in KC).

If you send a runner in the majors with the hopes of forcing a bad throw and no other reason to think he will score, you are betting against the house. You might win but the odds are not in your favor.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think third base coaches are an anti-Lake Woebegon. All of them are below average.

On a more serious note, I do remember some research (no idea who, what, where, when) that suggested third base coaches were, on the whole, too conservative. And if they bumped up their aggressiveness a notch their teams would score a small number of extra runs. But that half-misremembered account is all the data I have on the subject.

[Hallas]

I think third base coaches are an anti-Lake Woebegon. All of them are below average.

On a more serious note, I do remember some research (no idea who, what, where, when) that suggested third base coaches were, on the whole, too conservative. And if they bumped up their aggressiveness a notch their teams would score a small number of extra runs. But that half-misremembered account is all the data I have on the subject.

I think that makes sense, at least with 2 outs; in that case, your run expectancy is .538 with runners at 1st and 3rd. It's .251 with a runner at first + the run you've already scored, so 1.251. You can get gunned more than half the time in this situation and you'll still be a net positive. A quick look at the run expectancy says that you should be reasonably sure with 1 out, and 110% sure with 0 outs.

Another thing that clouds this analysis is that frequently sending the runner home results in the trailing runner advancing a base. If you have a fast runner behind that is able to do this regularly, it improves the outlook significantly for 0 out and 1 out, though for 0 out you should still be pretty darn sure (like 80% or more).