Nick, how would you currently rank the top college arms as of Mid-May?

[Stotle]

There was one draft guy that said we could be taking Springer with our pick. Any chance that this is true?

Could be a homerun pick if you can fix his swing. RZ will be happy to know the last two starts for Barnes have been very strong, and his command of his FB has been better. Most importantly, he touched 98 and bumped some 95s and 96s later in the game. Not sure he'll make up enough ground to break into top 10, but I think he's likely back into top 15 ground.

Tyler Anderson, my boy, pitched very well last night against Stanford.

[RVAbird]

Heard Hultzen has not been up to 94-96 in any of his recent starts. High, high probability guy but I still think there are four or five college arms with better upside and still solid probability.

Nick, Danny sat 91-94 in his first three innings yesterday, touching 95. Tired some after that, sitting 90-92 and touching 93-94 the rest of the way.

He threw 39 pitches in the first inning, which clearly taxed his arm. Still hit 93 in the 7th, though.

[Stotle]

Nick, Danny sat 91-94 in his first three innings yesterday, touching 95. Tired some after that, sitting 90-92 and touching 93-94 the rest of the way.

He threw 39 pitches in the first inning, which clearly taxed his arm. Still hit 93 in the 7th, though.

Sitting 90-92 is consistent with what I've heard. Thanks for the report!

[stuckin82]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611735.html

Baseball America's latest has O's taking Jed Bradley, fyi

[Enjoy Terror]

What are the chances that the O's would take Bundy simply based on being familiar with dealing with his family? I would think that signability issues would be non-existent for a chance that Dylan could play with Bobby someday.

[Fan4Life]

Sitting 90-92 is consistent with what I've heard. Thanks for the report!

We've heard how talented this draft is with pitching. But unless you are in your business it's difficult to know what that means. Could you compare any of the current pitching draft class with names we are familiar with like Matusz, Taillon, Price, Strassburg, Hellickson, etc?

[Stotle]

We've heard how talented this draft is with pitching. But unless you are in your business it's difficult to know what that means. Could you compare any of the current pitching draft class with names we are familiar with like Matusz, Taillon, Price, Strassburg, Hellickson, etc?

Fun exercise -- I'll give it a shot. There are approximations:

Cole -- tick below Strasburg in stuff and grade below in command

Gray -- tick below Lincecum in production but stuff comparable at same stage

Hultzen -- about on par with Pomeranz w/better command, or Matusz w/lesser breaking stuff

J. Bradley -- Alex White with much better mechanics and slider flashing better now, but still inconsistent

Bauer -- Mike Leake with a little better stuff, overall, but similar approach

Meyer -- No great comps come to mind. Maybe Chris Sale with better pure stuff and slightly better arm angle. Mid/upper-90s arm with plus or better SL but inconsistent mechanics

Bundy -- Taillon without the physicality.

A. Bradley -- Maybe Shelby Miller w/stuff/physicality

J. Fernandez -- Stetson Allie with a tick less velo but much, much better "now" command

D. Norris -- Lefty version of AJ Cole w/better change-up and slightly less projection

Jungmann -- A little like Ranaudo +, with similar angle and big fastball, but Jungmann's curve is a tick better and change a grade better

The list of arms with a solid shot at atleast mid-rotation production probably stretches another 20-30 names -- maybe more.

[Tony-OH]

Why is this a priority, in your opinion?

Well, I look at our current group of starting pitchers in the minor leaguer and I don't see a major league starter above A-ball. Guys like Bundy, Bridwell, and Berry hold potential of course, but they are very far away. Klein could be the closest but the Orioles, at least when talking to John Stockstill, seem non-committal towards making him a starter. That doesn't mean he's not going to be tried as a starter, but he doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm so no one knows if he can hold up in that role. I personally think they should stretch him out and have him throwing five inning starts in the second half of this year before turning him into a starter full time next year.

Even though the Orioles have a great core of young pitching in their rotation (Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen/Tillman), there's not a lot of depth outside of that. I just think that a good college arm that could be in Baltimore by late 2012 and for good by 2013 would be a good choice. Now if Rendon is available, maybe you change that plan, but I don't think the Orioles can take a chance on a high school arm with so little depth in upper level starting pitching prospects.

[eb45]

Wouldn't it also make sense to add another arm to the lower-level guys so that there can be several of them hitting the majors at once if things go well, rather than spreading them out over the minors?

Also, the Orioles currently have three fairly proven ML starters in Guthrie, Matusz, and Arrieta, plus Britton, who appears to be legit, and Bergesen and Tillman, who are questionable but have had some success. Five of them are age 25 or younger. Technically they're not "prospects", but I'd say the Orioles have depth of high-level young pitching in the organization.

Finally, most of the college pitchers in this draft don't fit your timetable. Of the ones that could, Hultzen and Bauer, I don't think either has a ceiling high enough to justify taking over a Bundy/Starling/Gray type.

[Tony-OH]

Wouldn't it also make sense to add another arm to the lower-level guys so that there can be several of them hitting the majors at once if things go well, rather than spreading them out over the minors?

Also, the Orioles currently have three fairly proven ML starters in Guthrie, Matusz, and Arrieta, plus Britton, who appears to be legit, and Bergesen and Tillman, who are questionable but have had some success. Five of them are age 25 or younger. Technically they're not "prospects", but I'd say the Orioles have depth of high-level young pitching in the organization.

Finally, most of the college pitchers in this draft don't fit your timetable. Of the ones that could, Hultzen and Bauer, I don't think either has a ceiling high enough to justify taking over a Bundy/Starling/Gray type.

I guess we have a different definition of depth. Britton, Matusz and Arrieta are the guys I think are definitely going to be a part of this rotations for years to come if they stay healthy. Guthrie is about to become expensive and the Orioles will have to determine whether he's part of the future here (I think he should). Bergesen is a solid #5 in my opinion and Tillman is good depth for the 5th starters spot. That gives us one deep in starting pitching prospects right now who can contribute this year and probably next. That's not a lot of depth in my opinion.

Sometimes you have to be willing to take a safer solid #3 rotation guy then take a chance that a guy who could profile as TOR is also an injury/bust risk. Me personally, I would rarely take a high school pitcher with a top ten selection unless my system could afford the wait and only if he was really, really special. The Orioles have shown the ability to draft and develop high school pitchers (Bergesen and Britton) but they take a long time. This system needs an influx of talent and they need it at a more mature level in my opinion unless you have a Machado-type talent available.

Looking at the organization, there is a lack of impact 1st base, catching, outfield and starting pitching prospects and if I'm the Orioles, I'm going college heavy in this deep draft and staying away from projects.

[Fan4Life]

Fun exercise -- I'll give it a shot. There are approximations:

Cole -- tick below Strasburg in stuff and grade below in command

Gray -- tick below Lincecum in production but stuff comparable at same stage

Hultzen -- about on par with Pomeranz w/better command, or Matusz w/lesser breaking stuff

J. Bradley -- Alex White with much better mechanics and slider flashing better now, but still inconsistent

Bauer -- Mike Leake with a little better stuff, overall, but similar approach

Meyer -- No great comps come to mind. Maybe Chris Sale with better pure stuff and slightly better arm angle. Mid/upper-90s arm with plus or better SL but inconsistent mechanics

Bundy -- Taillon without the physicality.

A. Bradley -- Maybe Shelby Miller w/stuff/physicality

J. Fernandez -- Stetson Allie with a tick less velo but much, much better "now" command

D. Norris -- Lefty version of AJ Cole w/better change-up and slightly less projection

Jungmann -- A little like Ranaudo +, with similar angle and big fastball, but Jungmann's curve is a tick better and change a grade better

The list of arms with a solid shot at atleast mid-rotation production probably stretches another 20-30 names -- maybe more.

Excellent. Thank you!

[eb45]

I don't disagree that there isn't a whole lot in the system right now, but I'm not sure going college-heavy is the way to fix it.

Next year, there probably won't be anyone of note in Norfolk's rotation, no matter who the pick is at 1:4. But at Bowie, there could very well be three top ten prospects in Bundy, Klein, and RBerry. Best case scenario, you could have the 1:4 pick join them towards the end of the year. Then you've got four guys who project as potential #2-5 starters all within about a year and a half from the bigs. At Frederick, though, there's maybe Hobgood and TBerry, and just Bridwell at Delmarva. Henry, Wirsch and Coffey could be somewhere in those two levels if they ever get healthy.

I think the gap between the current wave of SP prospects and the next wave is high enough that this draft can't fix it. Last year's draft probably could have if there had been a college pitcher good enough, but I don't think Hultzen or Bauer can move fast enough to bridge the gap between Britton and Bundy/Klein/Berry, if that's what you're looking for.

Additionally, I don't think going college-heavy is the way to stock the system. The Orioles missed on a lot of high schoolers in 2009 and we're seeing the results of that in the weakened lower levels now, but that doesn't mean that they should avoid high schoolers again. They should stock the system with the most talented players available within their budget, and generally those players are high schoolers. There are plenty of college players worth taking, but the makeup of the farm system isn't such right now that it needs to be balanced out by a specific draft strategy.

I'd avoid college MI because of the depth the O's have at Frederick/Delmarva at the infield, but not to the point where I'd pass up a Joe Panik or Levi Michael in the second round for a clearly inferior player. In my opinion, you take the best players and then work around that.

Also, while writing this post, I checked out Stotle's site and he had the following to say on Bundy, who he listed as the "Should Draft" for Baltimore: "Bundy is advanced enough that he could catch-up to his brother (Bobby Bundy, Adv.-A Frederick Keys) at some point in 2012 at AA Bowie." Does that change your opinion at all?

[Old Sneakers]

Also, while writing this post, I checked out Stotle's site and he had the following to say on Bundy, who he listed as the "Should Draft" for Baltimore: "Bundy is advanced enough that he could catch-up to his brother (Bobby Bundy, Adv.-A Frederick Keys) at some point in 2012 at AA Bowie." Does that change your opinion at all?

If Bundy is whom the proffesional scouts really like and believe in then, yes! But as for any thought of Dylan Bundy being drafted 4th overall. Getting signed relatively early. Then somehow storming his way to AA Bowie next year is beyond comprehension.

If they do draft him and get him signed. Then I would be perfectly content to see him make a handful of appearances at Aberdeen this year and have a full season in Delmarva next year. Beyond that it's up to each prospect to move up when he is ready.

From what I see for the most part. We all agree that the primary thing is getting that first choice right. Be it a College arm or High School arm. I just don't see a position player worthy of the 4th choice beyond Anthony Rendon.

[allstar1579]

Before we start talking about Bundy being in the majors in 2 years, let's remember that Taillon is better than he is, just made his debut in low-A ball last month.

[rhall]

Before we start talking about Bundy being in the majors in 2 years, let's remember that Taillon is better than he is, just made his debut in low-A ball last month.

Good point. We have to remember that right now we should have zero expectations of Dylan Bundy signing before the deadline or making his full-season debut before the spring of 2012. A highschool pitcher making his full-season debut is more likely to start in Single-A, and he would have to start in Single-A Advanced to have a realistic shot at Double-A. Either that or he cruises through 3 levels in one year. If you ask me, that would be rushing him, and possibily overloading his arm with innings - maybe Detroit could make it happen