If the Orioles draft ____________, they will have screwed up.

[Sports Guy]

Fill in the blank from the title.

A few years ago, the Orioles made a mistake and took Hobgood.

What player, who is either ranked highly or quickly moving up the charts, would you call a mistake if the Orioles drafted him.

[Stotle]

I'm having trouble thinking of a player they might draft that could really constitute a "screw up".

[Sports Guy]

I'm having trouble thinking of a player they might draft that could really constitute a "screw up".

No Hobgood type guys jumping up some draft boards that most teams view as a reach this year?

[eb45]

"based on need at the major league level"

[Stotle]

No Hobgood type guys jumping up some draft boards that most teams view as a reach this year?

I mean, no one with Hobgood concerns (body type, jump in stuff). I guess you could argue that Taylor Guerrieri was potentially inflated earlier this spring when the national outlets started jumping him in the top 10 only to see his velo and curve consistency slip back later in the spring (shameless pat on my own back for not jumping the gun). Someone who loved his early stuff could grab him and end up with a low-90s right rather than a mid- to upper-90s righty.

The rest of the top HS arms -- Bundy, Norris, Bradley, Owens, Fernandez, Stephenson, Kelly, etc. are all better prospects (in my opinion) than was Hobgood. I think Stephenson and Kelly could be considered reaches, but it's not exactly nuts to think one of them ultimately ends up the best pitcher in the bunch.

I think jumping on Bauer has the potential to be a mistake, but so many people are huge fans of his that it's not like I could argue that BAL would be crazy to grab him.

[RVAbird]

I think jumping on Bauer has the potential to be a mistake, but so many people are huge fans of his that it's not like I could argue that BAL would be crazy to grab him.

My thoughts exactly. I start to feel a little crazy when just about every major national writer and, it seems, several ML orgs are high on I guy on whom I'm not, but I just can't see picking Bauer over some of the higher upside arms. He's a fantastic college pitcher, and a guy who could reach MLB and settle in quickly as a nice mid-rotation starter, but is that worth a top 5 pick in such a deep draft?

He's just a case where the college performance doesn't quite match the stuff IMO. I do think he'll be at least a decent ML pitcher and have come around to understanding him as a top half of the first round pick, but I wonder if Law is truly correct when he suggests that Bauer has entered the conversation for BAL at 1:4.

[ccbird]

Assuming you mean at 1:4, a HS player. And that might sound too critical as I would be excited about Starling or Bundy but Im set on going college player with our first pick.