Xavier Avery: .521 OPS

[Greg Pappas]

141 AB's

41 K's

8 BB's

.218 BA

.246 SLG

18 steals is the only impressive offensive stat. So, when will the O's send the 21-year old back down to Frederick?

[LookinUp]

I saw him last night and saw a guy who's lost at the plate.

He was taking pitches (good), but lost when behind in the count. He looked like he was looking for a curve in his first AB and sort of flailed at what I think was a FB.

Generally, he just didn't look like he was swinging with authority. I'm guessing the k's and the fact he's hitting leadoff have sapped some of his aggression. Just a guess though after only one night of seeing him while watching a 4 y.o. and a 1 y.o. So take it for what it's worth.

Other observations...not a whole lot to like. Welty is a big guy. His build reminds me of Reimold. Nice bomb late in the game to tie it. Otherwise, I just didn't see almost any pop in the lineup. McCurry didn't break 90 on the radar gun, but he broke off a couple of curves at 69 mph that made hitters look silly. He seemed to work backwards. A lot of his stuff was upper 70's. I couldn't tell from my vantage point whether it was a slider or change. I'm guessing the former.

[RVAbird]

141 AB's

41 K's

8 BB's

.218 BA

.246 SLG

18 steals is the only impressive offensive stat. So, when will the O's send the 21-year old back down to Frederick?

Greg, I've had the opportunity to see Avery plenty in the Eastern League. He's right where he needs to be. I won't lie - the results are ugly. They are showing all of the things that the 21 year old needs to improve significantly to become a Major League player. He is struggling and will continue to struggle throughout the year.

But Avery is the type of player who thrives on hardship and learns from failure. He needs to be challenged and needs to learn from the faster pace of the game at the AA level.

This year is a thrown out year in his development as far as I'm concerned. More important than the results is how he reacts and adjusts as the season goes on. He's not ready to break through yet, but I believe he's better off working through struggles in AA than getting sent back to high-A.

[RVAbird]

I saw him last night and saw a guy who's lost at the plate.

He was taking pitches (good), but lost when behind in the count. He looked like he was looking for a curve in his first AB and sort of flailed at what I think was a FB.

Generally, he just didn't look like he was swinging with authority. I'm guessing the k's and the fact he's hitting leadoff have sapped some of his aggression. Just a guess though after only one night of seeing him while watching a 4 y.o. and a 1 y.o. So take it for what it's worth.

Other observations...not a whole lot to like. Welty is a big guy. His build reminds me of Reimold. Nice bomb late in the game to tie it. Otherwise, I just didn't see almost any pop in the lineup. McCurry didn't break 90 on the radar gun, but he broke off a couple of curves at 69 mph that made hitters look silly. He seemed to work backwards. A lot of his stuff was upper 70's. I couldn't tell from my vantage point whether it was a slider or change. I'm guessing the former.

There's really not much to like in AA Bowie. Believe me, I know. This system needs a serious injection of talent.

[Sports Guy]

But RZ said he was going to be good!

[Sports Guy]

Did I? Maybe I did, but I don't remember guaranteeing that Avery would be a good ML player. Show me, and I'll own up to it. I remember saying he wasn't a bust as a pick. Is this trying to get back at me for bringing up Christian Colon and Manny Machado? Now that one, everyone remmebers.

Nah..Everytime Avery would have a good stretch, you would always like to say that I thought he was a waste of a pick. Be a man and own up to it and move on..I'm just kidding anyway.

I don't need to rub this in...it was an obvious thing from the beginning.

[Sports Guy]

What was obvious from the beginning? That he was a waste of pick?

Yea...no way this organization develops a guy like that.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I guess the fact that he was the 12th rated prospect in the Carolina League and the #3 rated O's prospect in Baseball America is a testament to how badly they've developed him to this point. Of course, the fact that most 2nd round prospects don't make it, only makes it more likely that he won't make it as well, which will delude herself into actually thinking your right. Of course, if he does turn things around and make it, we can just add it to your other nuggets from the past.

Actually, that's a testament to how awful our MiL system is.

12th in the Carolina league only means so much...he did have a nice year last year though.

He isn't good and will not be more than a 4th OFer in the majors, if that.

[HokieOs]

Actually, that's a testament to how awful our MiL system is.

12th in the Carolina league only means so much...he did have a nice year last year though.

He isn't good and will not be more than a 4th OFer in the majors, if that.

I still think it's a little early to draw any definitive conclusions on Avery. Let's at least give him the full year in Bowie. We're talking about a kid who is 21 years old and was very raw to begin with. There are going to be bumps in the road.

I also think he may be being brought along a little too quickly for someone as raw as he was. It's not like his Frederick OPS was anything special in 2010 before being promoted to Bowie (it was .738).

So without a doubt, he needs at least this year in Bowie... and frankly, 2012 in Bowie will be the key to see how well he's progressing. That also said... a movement back down to Frederick if he continues to struggle in 2012 may be in order... even if it's simply to gain confidence.

[Sports Guy]

I still think it's a little early to draw any definitive conclusions on Avery. Let's at least give him the full year in Bowie. We're talking about a kid who is 21 years old and was very raw to begin with. There are going to be bumps in the road.

I also think he may be being brought along a little too quickly for someone as raw as he was. It's not like his Frederick OPS was anything special in 2010 before being promoted to Bowie (it was .738).

So without a doubt, he needs at least this year in Bowie... and frankly, 2012 in Bowie will be the key to see how well he's progressing. That also said... a movement back down to Frederick if he continues to struggle in 2012 may be in order... even if it's simply to gain confidence.

Forget the fact that he is an Oriole right now.

Who on our ML team would you be willing to trade to get Avery?

[HokieOs]

Forget the fact that he is an Oriole right now.

Who on our ML team would you be willing to trade to get Avery?

Just because that move wouldn't be made does not mean that he doesn't have a shot of being a decent Major League ballplayer. I'm not saying he's going to be a great player. But he does have some good tools. I do think we are rushing him too much. He's only 21... he was raw when we drafted him... and we've already got him in Bowie? He should be Frederick.

[Sports Guy]

Just because that move wouldn't be made does not mean that he doesn't have a shot of being a decent Major League ballplayer. I'm not saying he's going to be a great player. But he does have some good tools. I do think we are rushing him too much. He's only 21... he was raw when we drafted him... and we've already got him in Bowie? He should be Frederick.

You didn't answer the question.

I think you are giving Avery credit because he is an Orioles prospect...Take that aspect away. Say you know everything about Avery as you do now but he plays for another organization...what would you be willing to give up to acquire him?

[LookinUp]

Forget the fact that he is an Oriole right now.

Who on our ML team would you be willing to trade to get Avery?

Izturis, Rupe, Accardo, Gonzalez, Fox, Andino

[HokieOs]

You didn't answer the question.

I think you are giving Avery credit because he is an Orioles prospect...Take that aspect away. Say you know everything about Avery as you do now but he plays for another organization...what would you be willing to give up to acquire him?

I might be willing to trim some fat. Obviously he is a major risk and probably won't be a star, so I'm not giving up Guthrie or anything. I'd certainly be happy to acquire him as part of a multi-player deal. As far as one on one trading, well... outside of high level prospects, that almost never happens one on one. Prospects like him would be included as small pieces of a bigger overall deal.

[hoosiers]

Looks like some folks pissed off the X-factor.

Look who has 12 hits in his last ten games - only one game hitless. Five BBs in those ten games covering 43 PAs after only six BBs in the first 120 or so PAs.

OBP the last 10 games is a juicy .395 and his OPS is over .800.

There is a long ways to go, but we've known Avery was a huge project with a strong toolbox, and we all know the HS kids develop at different paces. Maybe it's just a good 10 game stretch, but maybe some things are starting to click here.