Bedard contract extension?

[Peace21]

The Orioles have to really show him that they want him to stay long-term. Im not going to convey what the offer was last offseason but, it was an insult how it was handled.

[Lucky Jim]

I said in the other thread that I thought 4/52 would do it. I'll agree that I think I underestimated the 5 year deal. Probably something like 5/70 would be the max I would go.

I don't do 6 years.

All of this talk about being "p'd off" is ridiculous. Look, if he wants to earn less money over the next two years, that's fine. If he wants to carry the risk of injury himself over the next two years, that's fine, too.

If he turns down either of those above deals, he's an idiot. I'd rather not have players on the team who hold some asinine grudge against the team that discovered them and developed them.

[davearm]

I hate player-void options. Those give way too much power to the player. I'm a much bigger fan of a single option year for a player or team or perhaps a mutual option where Bedard could pick it up for like $15M or we could pick it up for $20M.

You give the player power in exchange for a lower price.

[Hank Scorpio]

The Orioles have to really show him that they want him to stay long-term. Im not going to convey what the offer was last offseason but, it was an insult how it was handled.

Well, it certainly looks like an insult now after that season he just posted. At the time, Bedard really hadn't done all that much I don't think. Guys typically aren't paid tens of millions based on what they're projected to do or "could do" (unless they're named Matsuzaka)... as much as they are paid for what they have done or what they are expected to do.

I'm not saying it was a fair offer or that it was professionally presented to him not having intimate knowledge of the discussion, but it would have been financially irresponsible to have offered him $10MM a year for 4 years at that point.

[Mackus]

If he turns down either of those above deals, he's an idiot.

No he's not. He's taking a risk, but he's far from an idiot.

He's getting $16-18M over the next two years almost guaranteed. He'll get more money over a longer time after 2009 than he will if he signs a 5-6 year deal now, barring injury or performance decline. Even if his performance declines a little bit, he's still almost a guarantee to get 5/$55-60M after 2009, that much is being given out to #3 starters.

If he has two years even close to as good as this past season, he'll be looking at a 6/$120M+ deal at a minimum.

[Lucky Jim]

You give the player power in exchange for a lower price.

Well, obviously. Mackus is saying - I think - that these give too much power to the player and don't discount nearly enough. It's a general statement, perhaps. And it's possible these could be tweaked in individual circumstances. But I happen to agree with Mackus.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, 2 recent comps(in terms of service time):

Aaron Harang: 4/36.5....5th year option for 12.75 million

Jeremy Bonderman: 4/38

Career stats:

Bedard: 3.83 ERA...40-34....28 years old

Bonderman: 4.78 ERA....56-62...25 years old(pitched all this past season at 24 y/o)

Harang: 4.15 ERA...63-49....29 years old

Harang had thrown more than 200 innings and over 30 starts 2 years in a row before he signed his deal(just did it for a third time)

Bonderman was over 30 starts twice and 200 IP once.

Bedard has never thrown 200 innings and has been over 30 starts once.

[Sports Guy]

Why would he give a discount to a team that pissed him off? Fat chance on that one. He'll walk if only offered 4/56...

Then he can walk...No biggie.

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles have to really show him that they want him to stay long-term. Im not going to convey what the offer was last offseason but, it was an insult how it was handled.

But the offer itself wasn't an insult...It was eactly what guys like Mulder and Hudson got in the past, if not slightly more.

I am not sure what the Orioles did to piss him off but if he was pissed off by a fair market value contract, then we need to move him.

[Mackus]

You give the player power in exchange for a lower price.

To be honest, I didn't look at your numbers very closely, I would be somewhat interested in that type of deal its certainly a fair offer, but I think I'd actually rather pay more and keep the power. The next two years really aren't very likely to be competition years for the Orioles, so keeping Bedard for those years isn't a major plus (not that he wouldn't be a major plus, just that whether we win 80 or 70 games isn't the biggest difference in the world). If we lock him up, its to have a stud at the top of our rotation in 2010-2012, so I wouldn't want him to have the chance to opt out, which he almost certainly would.

[Lucky Jim]

No he's not. He's taking a risk, but he's far from an idiot.

He's getting $16-18M over the next two years almost guaranteed. He'll get more money over a longer time after 2009 than he will if he signs a 5-6 year deal now, barring injury or performance decline. Even if his performance declines a little bit, he's still almost a guarantee to get 5/$55-60M after 2009, that much is being given out to #3 starters.

If he has two years even close to as good as this past season, he'll be looking at a 6/$120M+ deal at a minimum.

Yes, yes, yes. Overstated. I know.

If he avoids injury and/or performance decline, then he'll be spot on for a big paycheck, it's true.

I guess it really depends on how one looks at the risk. I think the risk is absurd - he's likely due for some performance decline and he's a - seemingly - prime candidate for injury (seeing as he doesn't stay healthy as it is.)

My point about being an idiot was really geared toward the "we need to blow him away because he's been insulted" argument. If he's making determinations that drive his price up for an extension based on some grudge he holds - which isn't a risk calculation at all - then he is, indeed, being an idiot.

If the reason he turns down that the deals I proposed is that he has calculated the risk and reward, well...fine.

Perhaps I should have been clearer.

[davearm]

To be honest, I didn't look at your numbers very closely, I would be somewhat interested in that type of deal its certainly a fair offer, but I think I'd actually rather pay more and keep the power. The next two years really aren't very likely to be competition years for the Orioles, so keeping Bedard for those years isn't a major plus (not that he wouldn't be a major plus, just that whether we win 80 or 70 games isn't the biggest difference in the world). If we lock him up, its to have a stud at the top of our rotation in 2010-2012, so I wouldn't want him to have the chance to opt out, which he almost certainly would.

Fair enough.

If I'm Bedard and I hold the keys to 2011 and 2012, then I'm willing to be pretty reasonable on the dollars.

If I'm letting you hold the keys with team options, then they're not for a nickel less than $20M a year.

[Fan4Life]

Can someone quantify the win differential that would result in trading Bedard and moving Guthrie into the #1 spot, moving everyone else up a slot, and putting a Kershaw type rookie, or one of our own your pitchers into the 5th spot?

My gut is that Bedard could be 5-7 wins more a season in this scenario. Is that a good number? And then if it is, is Bedard worth $13mil+ more per season to get 5-7 more wins?

[davearm]

Yes, yes, yes. Overstated. I know.

If he avoids injury and/or performance decline, then he'll be spot on for a big paycheck, it's true.

I guess it really depends on how one looks at the risk. I think the risk is absurd - he's likely due for some performance decline and he's a - seemingly - prime candidate for injury (seeing as he doesn't stay healthy as it is.)

My point about being an idiot was really geared toward the "we need to blow him away because he's been insulted" argument. If he's making determinations that drive his price up for an extension based on some grudge he holds - which isn't a risk calculation at all - then he is, indeed, being an idiot.

If the reason he turns down that the deals I proposed is that he has calculated the risk and reward, well...fine.

Perhaps I should have been clearer.

It seems worth pointing out that as a gross generalization, elite, professional athletes tend to be a supremely confident group.

More often than not, they don't think they're going to be injured.

And they certainly don't spend much time pondering the possibility that their performance is going to decline during their prime years.

I suspect that in Bedard's head, there's little doubt that he would be the single most coveted free agent in two years.

[clapdiddy]

After reading all of this, I stick to my guns....4/54.

If he wants more, then I say we deal him. I'd prefer to do that, anyway.