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What is your realistic best case scenario for the Orioles first 2 picks?

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eb45 Major Leaguer Rising Star

eb45

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Assuming Rendon, Cole, and Hultzen go 1-3, Bundy in the first round.

Not as familiar with second round talents, but I like what I've seen/heard of Charlie Tilson a lot. I'd prefer to go college with the second-round pick but Tilson is apparently somewhat advanced for a HS outfielder and I think the O's could use some help in that department. If Mikie Mahtook somehow drops then I would love to take him as well but that looks highly unlikely.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Assuming Rendon, Cole, and Hultzen go 1-3, Bundy in the first round.

Not as familiar with second round talents, but I like what I've seen/heard of Charlie Tilson a lot. I'd prefer to go college with the second-round pick but Tilson is apparently somewhat advanced for a HS outfielder and I think the O's could use some help in that department. If Mikie Mahtook somehow drops then I would love to take him as well but that looks highly unlikely.

Tilson is in my region and I've seen him a lot. He shows much better in games than he does in the showcase setting, and I think he'll probably get popped in the sandwich round (though not by us).

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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It's really tough to guess who slips through the sandwich round. Case-in-point, I think EB45's mention of Tilson is completely reasonable, but I personally don't think he gets to the second round. I guess dream scenario would be any of the following for me:

Gerrit Cole slips to 1:4, Baltimore pops Blake Swihart in the 2nd after he drops due to signability issues.

Rendon slips to 1:4, Baltimore pops Kevin Comer (rhp, Seneca HS, Tabernacle, N.J. ) in the 2nd.

Baltimore goes all upside and grabs Starling in the 1st and Johnny Eierman in the 2nd (of/mif, Warsaw HS, Warsaw, Mo.)

Baltimore goes Bundy in the 1st and pairs him with a hit tool college guy -- preferably Wong (don't think he lasts) or possibly Brad Miller (inf, Clemson) or Joe Panik (SS, St. John's).

I think it's possible any of these scenarios happen, but also just as likely (maybe more likely) all of these kids are grabbed in the 1st 60 picks. Man, I know it's been said but what a crappy year to have no extra picks. At least they have a 2nd Rounder this go-round.

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eb45 Major Leaguer Rising Star

eb45

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well yeah, best-case scenario is obviously one of Cole/Rendon dropping. But within reason I'd probably be happiest with something like Bundy and a college or advanced HS OF with a good hit tool. I'd love Wong but I highly doubt he drops to #64. Panik would also be great but also unlikely to drop.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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well yeah, best-case scenario is obviously one of Cole/Rendon dropping. But within reason I'd probably be happiest with something like Bundy and a college or advanced HS OF with a good hit tool. I'd love Wong but I highly doubt he drops to #64. Panik would also be great but also unlikely to drop.

Agreed. I would be fine with Bundy, medicals permitting, and think all the guys I listed have a better than not chance of being scooped before 2:4. That said, there are only 60 slots between BAL's picks, and someone unexpected will drop there -- probably a fair number of someones.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Agreed. I would be fine with Bundy, medicals permitting, and think all the guys I listed have a better than not chance of being scooped before 2:4. That said, there are only 60 slots between BAL's picks, and someone unexpected will drop there -- probably a fair number of someones.

Can you elaborate on the medical issues with Bundy. This is the third or fourth time I've seen you cite medicals as a concern. Thanks.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Can you elaborate on the medical issues with Bundy. This is the third or fourth time I've seen you cite medicals as a concern. Thanks.

He's just a HS arm that threw a whole lot of innings last spring -- particularly late in the season -- and backed off some over the summer and fall (and didn't show as well over the summer as he did the prior spring/fall). My unfounded concern is that damage done is damage done, so I'd want a peak at what the insides look like. That said, I put him at 1:4 in the first DSS "Should Draft" so it doesn't overly concern me.

Put it this way -- had he not run up the innings/pitch counts late and in a short period of time last spring, and had he been a little crisper with his usual stuff throughout the summer, he would have been my top HS arm entering the season. This spring has made me feel better, but I'd still want to make sure there wasn't some sort of obvious issue as a ticking time bomb.

TO THE WORLD: TO BE CLEAR, I AM NOT CLAIMING HE IS A HUGE INJURY RISK OR THAT HE SHOULDN'T BE CONSIDERED THE BEST OR ATLEAST TOP 3 HS ARMS IN THE DRAFT. I JUST HAVE LINGERING CONCERNS DATING BACK TO LAST SPRING/SUMMER THAT I WOULD LIKE ALLEVIATED.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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He's just a HS arm that threw a whole lot of innings last spring -- particularly late in the season -- and backed off some over the summer and fall (and didn't show as well over the summer as he did the prior spring/fall). My unfounded concern is that damage done is damage done, so I'd want a peak at what the insides look like. That said, I put him at 1:4 in the first DSS "Should Draft" so it doesn't overly concern me.

Put it this way -- had he not run up the innings/pitch counts late and in a short period of time last spring, and had he been a little crisper with his usual stuff throughout the summer, he would have been my top HS arm entering the season. This spring has made me feel better, but I'd still want to make sure there wasn't some sort of obvious issue as a ticking time bomb.

TO THE WORLD: TO BE CLEAR, I AM NOT CLAIMING HE IS A HUGE INJURY RISK OR THAT HE SHOULDN'T BE CONSIDERED THE BEST OR ATLEAST TOP 3 HS ARMS IN THE DRAFT. I JUST HAVE LINGERING CONCERNS DATING BACK TO LAST SPRING/SUMMER THAT I WOULD LIKE ALLEVIATED.

Hah. Loud and clear.

You're not the only one I've spoken to who is still leery about the use last spring, just wanted to make sure you didn't know something more specific.

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panick Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

panick

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Stotle,

What do you mean about checking a player's physicals? What information that is not made public would be available to examine? I doubt that a player that thinks he's a top ten pick is going to volunteer that he has a physical problem.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Stotle,

What do you mean about checking a player's physicals? What information that is not made public would be available to examine? I doubt that a player that thinks he's a top ten pick is going to volunteer that he has a physical problem.

Teams can request, or players can provide on their own, medical reports with varying degrees of detail. Usually they would be made available to interested teams by submission to MLB. A player can opt not to provide any details, but if teams are interested in them with cause, and a player refuses to offer anything up, it could turn off potential suitors.

For example, Anthony Rendon has already submitted medicals reports to Major League Baseball (I believe the draft stuff goes through the scouting bureau?). Those reports have not yet been released to teams, last I heard.

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Justinlstn Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Justinlstn

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Stole, have you seen Karsten Whitson pitch for Florida? I know he is not available right now, but considering he was a name the Orioles considered last year i was curious on how he is looking going from facing high school batters to college hitters.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Stole, have you seen Karsten Whitson pitch for Florida? I know he is not available right now, but considering he was a name the Orioles considered last year i was curious on how he is looking going from facing high school batters to college hitters.

He's a stud. Have seen him three times on video this spring. My current pick for #1 overall in 2013, and would have been my pick last year in the draft. Stepped into a weekend starter role as a true freshman and has put up:

SO/9 - 8.87

BB/9 - 2.78

H/9 - 7.65

HR/9 - 0.26

BAA - .231

Stats are on par with some of the better draft eligible arms this year. Fantastic freshman year for Whitson.

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