Sign Guthrie

[MikeAD]

You really do have to wonder whether the trend of Guthrie getting poor run and bullpen support, which has lasted 4+ years, is going to continue. Analytically, it seems you would say it's just a statistical fluke and there is no reason to think he won't get average run and bullpen support in the future. But this has been going on so long, you have to wonder whether the team feels more pressure when he is pitching and underperforms as a result. If that's the case, then Guthrie has more value to another team than he does to us.

John Kruk and another former player (can't for the life of me remember who) were discussing recently this very thing, although not with Guthrie. Players know going into the game that they have to score 5-6 runs for a certain pitcher or you could get by with 3-4 with another pitcher. Players knew they could wait on the right pitch if their best guy was on the mound. You might think that they would want to get 4 runs asap to ensure the win with their best guy on the mound, but often times it was the other way.

I don't know maybe it has some validity.

[waroriole]

John Kruk and another former player (can't for the life of me remember who) were discussing recently this very thing, although not with Guthrie. Players know going into the game that they have to score 5-6 runs for a certain pitcher or you could get by with 3-4 with another pitcher. Players knew they could wait on the right pitch if their best guy was on the mound. You might think that they would want to get 4 runs asap to ensure the win with their best guy on the mound, but often times it was the other way.

I don't know maybe it has some validity.

It might, but it lost alot of credibility with the first two words you typed.

[MikeAD]

It might, but it lost alot of credibility with the first two words you typed.

You mean "ok pitcher A is on the mound=only five pregrame hotdogs" doesn't hold up for our purposes?

[Frobby]

Sounds like a better reason to improve the offense then to trade Guthrie.

The point is, the offense produces better for all the other pitchers than it does for Guthrie. And that's been a long-term trend, not a 9-game phenomenon. So, is it an inexplicable concidence that you ignore for purposes of analyzing the future, or is there something behind it?

[Sports Guy]

Cozart seems more like a throw in than anything else. From what I can tell, he's Andino with options. That has it's value, but I think Cozart + Alonso (and his lack of power) isn't enough to make up for losing Guthrie. I guess it depends on whether you trust your scouts who tell you that the HR power is developing and will be there.

Coazrt's MiL stats are much better than Andino.

He has shown more power and OBP than Andino did in the minors.

He could be a potential future SS or second baseman and a solid MI option off the bench right now.

And also, you are getting 12 years of service time at a very low price for 1.5 years at an inflated price.

The way people overlook things like that really surprises me...You can't ignore the age, salary and service time stuff.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

I don't get this idea that he is so valuable and that we can't trade him yet no one will give up anything for him.

Either he is valuable or he's not.

Simply not true. He can have more value to one team then another. IMHO, he has more value to us, a team that has not had good pitching in the last 10 years and that is trying to built with pitching,then to a team that is on the edge of the playoffs and is making a late season run. I guess we just disagree on that.

BTW, let me make it perfectly clear, I do not think he is untouchable, in fact I dont think anyone is. I personally think he has been a good soldier, is a good teammate and I have no problem giving him three years as a veteran, innings eater.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Coazrt's MiL stats are much better than Andino.

He has shown more power and OBP than Andino did in the minors.

He could be a potential future SS or second baseman and a solid MI option off the bench right now.

And also, you are getting 12 years of service time at a very low price for 1.5 years at an inflated price.

The way people overlook things like that really surprises me...You can't ignore the age, salary and service time stuff.

Why are we assuming the 1.5 years would be at inflated price? Also, do we know that those 12 years of service time will amount to any ML time? No we do not.

Talking hypothetical trades can make you go crazy. There are too many variables.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

The point is, the offense produces better for all the other pitchers than it does for Guthrie. And that's been a long-term trend, not a 9-game phenomenon. So, is it an inexplicable concidence that you ignore for purposes of analyzing the future, or is there something behind it?

I can't understand it either. We are better off trying to figure out how Stonehenge happened. It is unreal.

[LookinUp]

Guthrie would make a ton of sense to the Yankees, and perhaps to the Red Sox too, depending on how Lackey/Matsu hold up. He could win 15-20 games on either team next year in addition to several games this year.

My only real concern with Guthrie is as follows: I don't trust our scouts. A bird in the hand might be worth more than two in the bush, particularly when it comes to the O's evaluating players. If we go after hitters, will we find people with great plate discipline and really nice power potential, or will we find another Brandon Waring who tears up his league and has big power but will never connect at the ML level.

Because of that point, I want a sure-fire near-term replacement at a position of need. That includes 1B, 3B and LF. It could include 2B if I thought the O's were creative enough, which I don't. [Or, of course, some really nice arms, which I have better confidence in identifying.]

Also, for another thread, but Luke Scott sure would make a lot of sense in Philly. I know they have a young 1B prospect, and they're fully leveraged for a big run this year or next. Just saying...

[LookinUp]

I can't understand it either. We are better off trying to figure out how Stonehenge happened. It is unreal.

It's not really difficult to understand his lack of run support.

We can't hit, we play in a very tough division, and we definitely can't hit other team's #1 starters (who he faces most of the time).

On to Stonehenge.

[Edit: meant CAN'T hit]

[wildcard]

The point is, the offense produces better for all the other pitchers than it does for Guthrie. And that's been a long-term trend, not a 9-game phenomenon. So, is it an inexplicable concidence that you ignore for purposes of analyzing the future, or is there something behind it?

I think we will get that answer over the next two and a half months. As the weather gets hotter the ball travels better and the offense will get better. The O's have better hitters then they have had in the past. Let's see if that translates into more runs for Guthrie.

[MikeAD]

I think we will get that answer over the next two and a half months. As the weather gets hotter the ball travels better and the offense will get better. The O's have better hitters then they have had in the past. Let's see if that translates into more runs for Guthrie.

Well that worries me...the balls off opposing batters will travel further too. Those fly balls may become HRs. Can we trade him now?

[waroriole]

Coazrt's MiL stats are much better than Andino.

He has shown more power and OBP than Andino did in the minors.

He could be a potential future SS or second baseman and a solid MI option off the bench right now.

And also, you are getting 12 years of service time at a very low price for 1.5 years at an inflated price.

The way people overlook things like that really surprises me...You can't ignore the age, salary and service time stuff.

Not really: Cozart AAA OBP (.310 in '10 and .319 in '11); Andino AAA OBP (.303 in '06 .322 in '07 .356 in '08 .302 in '10)

Cozart AAA ISO (.161 in '10 .126 in '11); Andino AAA ISO (.210 in '08, .141 in '10)

Maybe you can say his glove makes him better (I don't know) but he doesn't separate himself with the bat.

[wildcard]

Well that worries me...the balls off opposing batters will travel further too. Those fly balls may become HRs. Can we trade him now?

Better do it quick. After tomorrow the weather forecast is for mid to upper 80's with 30% or less chance of rain for the next week. Summer is upon us. It will change how Camden plays.

[Crazysilver03]

My biggest concern with signing Guthrie long term is payroll flexibility.

After 2011, we are set to ditch Guerrero ($5M), Lee ($7.25M), Gonzalez ($6M), Hardy ($5.85M), Uehara ($3M), Izturis ($1.5M), Duke ($700K), and assuming Accardo is non-tendered ($1.08M). So that is approximately $30M coming off the books. Through salary increases, we add $6M for Markakis, Reynolds, and Gregg.

So that leaves the Orioles with around $24M.

In terms of arbitration:

1st year - Andino ($420K) and Bergesen ($420K)

2nd year - Pie ($985K), Johnson ($975K), and Jones ($3.25M)

3rd year - Guthrie ($5.75M)

4th year - Scott ($6.4M)

So without any free agent additions, we are looking at a decent amount of the free salary being ate up in arbitration increases.

The 2013 payroll has more increases but doesn't take a big hit from arbitration but the 2014 payroll will be slammed by the core's arbitration process.

So if we are to retain the core, it would be in the best interest to trade Guthrie for talent and to save money long term.