Bundy or Starling?

[weams]

What would be interesting to me, is if Cole, Rendon, Hultzen are off the board; and the O's go with some else (not Bundy or Starling). I wonder how it would go over with the board, if the O's went with J.Bradley, Gray, Bauer, Anderson... or someone else?

Bauer..maybe little Gray. That is it. I could live with them.

[weams]

Tough to answer without having seen any video of Bundy. Just going by reports, I feel Bundy is actually the safer pick with less chance of bust. All things being equal, I'd prefer the position player here. I guess the brother angle is nice as well. If I felt better about Starling being a surer thing, I would have said Starling. I say Bundy as of now.

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[McNulty]

Bubba. Fewer long term injury risks, and some uncertainty as to how Bundy's stuff plays on shorter rest and through longer season. Both are similar in upside, so give me the position player.

I agree and I'm surprised how many people here are saying Bundy. Particularly when just about everyone has never seen them play.

[Scrat1]

I agree and I'm surprised how many people here are saying Bundy. Particularly when just about everyone has never seen them play.

For me it comes down to the Orioles organization. I prefer Bundy because 1) I'm still a bit skeptical of our ability to develop raw but talented hitters, while we've had recent success with pitchers and 2) because it's much, much easier for the Orioles to attract free agent positional talent than free agent pitchers, especially starters. The second point is the main one. Because pitchers avoid Camden Yards and the AL East like the plague, I think it makes more sense to keep a steady pipeline of pitchers coming. The Orioles always have a decent shot at filling the holes in their line up with guys like Vlad, Lee, Patterson, Renteria, Pena, Hawpe and so on, while the pitching equivalent of those guys, like Harang and Garland and Westbrook, aren't going to come to Baltimore. It's simply a bad career move for them. So between the realities of free agency for Baltimore, and the recent history of our farm system, I think Bundy would be the smarter choice for Baltimore. If we were the Padres, then I'd probably prefer Starling.

If Bubba were the clear BPA, like Machado last year, then I'd be all for drafting him. But that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

[McNulty]

Why are you suprised most are saying Bundy? His brother plays in our system and many experts believe he's a bonafide top 5 pick, if not a bonafide top overall pick. You could say the same about Starling but his brother doesn't play in our system. I don't think there's a lot more to it than that. Would you be just as surprised if more people were picking Starling without ever seeing either play? The experts seem to be fairly evenly split on who the better pick is as well, no?

I agree, the experts are split. Which is why I would expect more of a split here, regardless of his brother. Especially since position players have a lower attrition rate. That's all.

[weams]

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[Stotle]

Six videos of Starling at the DiamondScape Scouting scouting report page: http://diamondscapescouting.com/scoutingreports_2011_starlingde.html

[ccbird]

There is just something about Starling that scares me a little bit. Really no reason for it either. Never seen him play except for the posted videos which tells very little. Just a gut thing. I'll take Bundy.

[Sports Guy]

Why are you suprised most are saying Bundy? His brother plays in our system and many experts believe he's a bonafide top 5 pick, if not a bonafide top overall pick. You could say the same about Starling but his brother doesn't play in our system. I don't think there's a lot more to it than that. Would you be just as surprised if more people were picking Starling without ever seeing either play? The experts seem to be fairly evenly split on who the better pick is as well, no?

Do you think people want him only because we have his brother?

[LookinUp]

Given similar age, upside and probability, I'll take the hitter. Pitchers just have so much injury risk. That puts my list something like this:

1. Rendon

2. Cole

3. Other college p's? (possible, but I'm not firm here)

4. Starling

5. Bundy

[Scrat1]

Given similar age, upside and probability, I'll take the hitter. Pitchers just have so much injury risk. That puts my list something like this:

1. Rendon

2. Cole

3. Other college p's? (possible, but I'm not firm here)

4. Starling

5. Bundy

Doesn't this argument cut both ways, though? No team is going to be able to fill every hole with in house options. At least not with in house options worth a damn. So you've got to plug some holes with free agents. So while it's true that pitchers carry more of an injury risk, is that really a good argument for choosing a hitter over a pitcher on draft day? I don't believe so, because to frame the question of risk between Starling and Bundy (or whoever else) takes the whole scenario out of context. If the Orioles decided to take more hitters than pitchers due to attrition, then they'd soon find themselves having to fill their rotation and bullpen with free agent pitchers, which, obviously, also have a higher attrition rate. It's no secret that free agent pitchers rarely live up to their value, at least relative to free agent position players. So you're going to have to take on that extra risk either way, you just have to decide whether you're going to do it on draft day, or on the free agent market.

Preferring position players over pitchers in the draft doesn't evade the problem. It just kicks the can down the road. And, as I said on the previous page, considering the realities of free agency for Baltimore, it actually makes more sense to take the risk on the front end, and draft pitcher heavy, while pursuing free agent bats.