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No I hear you completely. I think we're on the same page here. One of my concerns Re: Jungmann is the lack of the swing and miss. Not only does it produce (only) solid K rates, but it can extend ABs from time to time. I think he's been pretty efficient this season either way, somewhat helped by a low BABIP.

NOTE that this is NOT A COMP, mainly due to very different bodies and deliveries, but in terms of projecting future peripherals I am reminded of Jeremy Guthrie. A fastball with good mid-90s velo, probably only average to above average movement, and, despite good control, sometimes spotty command in the zone, sets up an above average slider and a usuable change. I'm seeing a K-rate in the 6s and a BB rate around 3, good pitchability and feel. Prone to giving up the long ball from time to time. Potential to be a solid #2/3 starter with ERAs hovering around 4. Maybe a little better than that.

FWIW, Jungmann's junior campaign with this start included will have a K/9 around 8.5 and a BB/9 around 2. Guthrie, in his senior year in Stanford posted a K/9 of 7.8 and a BB/9 of 2.1. The bats and offensive environment have changed some, though.

Yeah I think we are seeing the same stuff. I like "stuff" comps more than full physical comps too, so I'm with you there, come on, I'm the guy who lined up D. Bundy and J. Lester yesterday with a 3 inch and 40lb difference ;) Guthrie is a good match stuff wise for him, I can really see that one. Guthrie is a cerebral pitcher, he is a more carefully plan out an AB kinda guy than a throw it down their throat kinda guy like a Clemens. Not saying TJ is like that, it's just always how I've pictured Guts, and those other Stanford guys.

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He's nasty because FB/SV/CH are all out pitches. Doesn't really favor one, and SV/CH have improved dramatically from command standpoint with his mechanical tweaks this year.

Hmm, that's interesting. So he just goes out and throws what's working to whoever huh? I might like him even more now. I heard from a friend he was really working on that CH earlier in the season, glad to see he's getting it worked out.

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He's nasty because FB/SV/CH are all out pitches. Doesn't really favor one, and SV/CH have improved dramatically from command standpoint with his mechanical tweaks this year.

It's interesting to consider what makes a pitch an "out pitch." Is Jeremy Guthrie's fastball an out pitch in the sense that he gets a lot of outs with it? Sure. In fact, Fangraphs rated his fastball as 14.4 runs above average last year. Is his fastball an out pitch in the sense that he misses a ton of bats with it? No.

I think the same will be true of Jungmann.

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I guess I'm missing what this thread is getting at. Jungmann has averaged 8 IP per start and 13.3 pitches per inning.

.167 BAA

8.63 SO/9

1.82 BB/9

5.22 H/9

Texas has a very good infield but they also play on turf.

He throws three pitches for strikes, with all three potential plus pitches. I don't think I've ever watched him pitch and thought, "This is a guy that struggles to put hitters away." Maybe Rendon in one at bat last year.

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Hmm, that's interesting. So he just goes out and throws what's working to whoever huh? I might like him even more now. I heard from a friend he was really working on that CH earlier in the season, glad to see he's getting it worked out.

I mean, his changeup last year was filthy -- just didn't command it very well, start to start. He's definitely carved up hitters with the slurve and change, and his screw change is hilarious to watch.

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It's interest to consider what makes a pitch an "out pitch." Is Jeremy Guthrie's fastball an out pitch in the sense that he gets a lot of outs with it? Sure. In fact, Fangraphs rated his fastball as 14.4 runs above average last year. Is his fastball an out pitch in the sense that he misses a ton of bats with it? No.

I think the same will be true of Jungmann.

Wouldn't that mean that his command is his out pitch since it's all about where he places his fastball? ;) Seriously though, I like to think of an out pitch as what a guy is going to throw when its 2 on, 2 outs and 2 strikes.

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I guess I'm missing what this thread is getting at. Jungmann has averaged 8 IP per start and 13.3 pitches per inning.

.167 BAA

8.63 SO/9

1.82 BB/9

5.22 H/9

Texas has a very good infield but they also play on turf.

He throws three pitches for strikes, with all three potential plus pitches. I don't think I've ever watched him pitch and thought, "This is a guy that struggles to put hitters away." Maybe Rendon in one at bat last year.

Nothing really, I was just asking if he had a usual go-to and it wasn't working or if he's one of those guys that just overthinks and throws a ton of pitches. Not that they struggle to do it, but you know the guys I'm talking about? The ones that work like they are playing chess out there throwing a bunch of pitches per AB but never really get hit. Seemed strange that he gave up one hit and had to use 130 pitches. Sounds more like an off day for him (which is sad an off day has 1 H and 1R allowed).

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I mean, his changeup last year was filthy -- just didn't command it very well, start to start. He's definitely carved up hitters with the slurve and change, and his screw change is hilarious to watch.

I finally got around to checking out his screw change the other day, it did look pretty funny. Wonder if they'll let him keep it in the pros. ;)

Yeah I heard the change had REAL good potential but he was missing with it and guys learned to stop swinging at it for a while.

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Nothing really, I was just asking if he had a usual go-to and it wasn't working or if he's one of those guys that just overthinks and throws a ton of pitches. Not that they struggle to do it, but you know the guys I'm talking about? The ones that work like they are playing chess out there throwing a bunch of pitches per AB but never really get hit. Seemed strange that he gave up one hit and had to use 130 pitches. Sounds more like an off day for him (which is sad an off day has 1 H and 1R allowed).

Got it. This was one of only three starts all year to go over 120 pitches, and he was averaging 8 IP per start. So it wasn't really characteristic of his usual stat line. I wouldn't worry about him fooling around with multiple pitches. He attacks kids -- just deals.

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I guess I'm missing what this thread is getting at. Jungmann has averaged 8 IP per start and 13.3 pitches per inning.

.167 BAA

8.63 SO/9

1.82 BB/9

5.22 H/9

Texas has a very good infield but they also play on turf.

He throws three pitches for strikes, with all three potential plus pitches. I don't think I've ever watched him pitch and thought, "This is a guy that struggles to put hitters away." Maybe Rendon in one at bat last year.

He doesn't struggle to put guys away at all, he just doesn't miss bats with the prolificacy of some other top 10 candidates.

Like I said, you can get away with being a very good pitcher with a K/9 in the sixes.

Also, I mentioned that Jungmann has been efficient, and I think he'll continue to be.

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Got it. This was one of only three starts all year to go over 120 pitches, and he was averaging 8 IP per start. So it wasn't really characteristic of his usual stat line. I wouldn't worry about him fooling around with multiple pitches. He attacks kids -- just deals.

Agree on this, which is why I said from the beginning he's been pitching to contact all year.

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Jungmann is a terrific pitcher who will probably be in the bigs in 2-3 years, but does he have the stuff and projection of Cole and/or Bundy one of whom we will probably draft at number 4.

I'm sure he will be a top 10 pick.

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Jungmann is a terrific pitcher who will probably be in the bigs in 2-3 years, but does he have the stuff and projection of Cole and/or Bundy one of whom we will probably draft at number 4.

I'm sure he will be a top 10 pick.

3 plus pitches is pretty darn good. I'm torn on whether he's #3 or #4 on my board (Gray), with Hultzen being #5 and Bundy/Starling #6/7. This is who I'd want the O's to take, by the way.

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