Just don't understand the optimism about Tillman

[bluedog]

I think most everyone knows that I feel strongly that Bergesen is a superior option to Tillman in the 5th starter role, primarily because of Tillman's inability to consistently get beyond the 5th inning as a starter and the pressure that puts on our bullpen. But so many people on OH feel that Tillman is the far superior choice to stay in the rotation when Matusz returns that I've been wondering if my opinion is flawed or biased in some way.

So in an attempt to be as objective as possible, I went into tonight's game with the A's determined to keep an open mind about Tillman and try to see why people are so enamored with him relative to Bergesen.

And so far tonight, I simply don't see it. He's needed one pitch short of 70 pitches to get through 3 innings against one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the AL.

His fastball looks mediocre at best, has topped out at 90 mph and he's thrown several fastballs at 86 mph. He doesn't seem to have command of his fastball and hasn't shown the ability to spot it with any consistency.

He has repeatedly fallen behind hitters throwing pitches no where near the strike zone and when he does get ahead instead of challenging the hitter, more often than not he nibbles to a full count.

To his credit, he's shown some excellent off-speed pitches. But with one exception he's not been able to throw off-speed pitches for third strikes.

Somehow, he's kept the O's in the game and only given up 1 earned run (so far) but nothing looks easy.

I just don't see any signs whatsoever that Tillman has progressed as a starter. The A's are shooting line drives all over the park tonight and as I've thought all year, it looks to me like Tillman is getting extremely lucky with hard hit ball after hard hit ball going just foul or turning into outs because they are hit right at a fielder, or because a fielder (Reynolds in the 3rd, Markakis in the 4th) make great plays for him.

He's almost certainly not going to make it out of the 5th again tonight and if so, he will have gone less than 6.0 innings in 70% of his starts this year.

In his first two years, he was actually better than this year - going 6.0 innings or more in 50% (11 of 22) of his starts.

So in terms of his ability to go deep into games he seems to have regressed this year, not improved. All of his other peripherals may have improved slightly this year, but he's required more pitches per inning to accomplish a modest improvement in other areas.

He's now pitched 32 major league starts and he's averaging 5.01 innings per outing. That's a fairly sizable sample. His WHIP hasn't improved in three years (in 2011 its 1.557, actually higher than his career 1.546). He has a career .316 winning percentage -- in large part because he can't stick around long enough to actually qualify for a win or give his team enough time to get him a lead. His ERA may be slightly better, but even that's not very impressive at just under 5.00 - one bad outing and he'll be back at his career ERA of 5.43.

So where is this improvement everyone is talking about? I remember a lot of people complaining about Bergesen and other pitchers because they didn't have a power fastball in the mid to upper nineties and using that as evidence that they weren't legitimate prospects or that they had very limited upside.

So now we have a pitcher with a career 5.50 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .316 win %, who barely averages a shade over 5 IPs per start and whose fastball sits at 88 as often as it sits at 92, and somehow everyone is feeling giddy about his progress and upside?

I don't see anything that suggests to me that Tillman is a long term solution as a starter for this team. He's teased us with a handful of brilliant starts (the Rays this year, Texas last year, a no hitter in the minors) but even in games where he's looked dominant, he's never shown even average command.

So as I've been writing this post, Tillman's night has run its course. He's being lifted after 4 1/3 innings having walked the last two batters he faced. He's given up 6 hits and 3 walks to the A's and dodged several bullets on hard hit balls that went for outs. If the pen gets him out of this bases loaded jam without surrendering a run it will LOOK like Tillman was effective again tonight (1 ER in 4.1 innings) when in fact he was lucky.

Just like he's been lucky all season.

[Moose Milligan]

I agree it's nice that he hasn't let up a lot of runs lately but...jeez. He can't even make it out of the 5th tonight.

And that fastball is straight as an arrow. You could hang clothes on it.

[NattieO'sHon]

He needs to go down to AAA but we have nobody to replace him in the rotation. The kid has a ton of talent. Just needs to learn to repeat his delivery, take advantage of his frame and command the fastball.

[bluedog]

So Simon saves his bacon and Tillman's ERA will actually go down tonight again.

If Tillman ever decides to stop pitching, I think he may have a career as a magician in his future.

[square634]

The optimism with Tillman is that he is only 23 and will hopefully not always be this inconsistent with his mechanics, which affects the sustainability of his velocity and location. He seems to have the repertoire to get swings and misses and poor contact.

[The Wedge]

Twenty-three. Young with upside. Hence: optimism.

[bluedog]

He needs to go down to AAA but we have nobody to replace him in the rotation. The kid has a ton of talent. Just needs to learn to repeat his delivery' date=' take advantage of his frame and command the fastball.[/quote']

Matusz is up to take Tillman's next start in Seattle, so we do have someone to replace him.

But I'm not sure that Tillman will benefit from going back to AAA. I think he needs to go to the pen as the long reliever. He can certainly pitch 3 or 4 innings as required and that's a role that the O's have needed all season.

[eddie83]

So Simon saves his bacon and Tillman's ERA will actually go down tonight again.

If Tillman ever decides to stop pitching, I think he may have a career as a magician in his future.

He is becoming our version of Dice K, maybe we can call him Ice-T. It seems like every night it takes him 100 pitches to get through 5 innings. He has gotten lucky on some hard hit outs this year.

[eddie83]

Matusz is up to take Tillman's next start in Seattle, so we do have someone to replace him.

But I'm not sure that Tillman will benefit from going back to AAA. I think he needs to go to the pen as the long reliever. He can certainly pitch 3 or 4 innings as required and that's a role that the O's have needed all season.

I disagree I don't think you put him in a long role he needs consistent work. Palmer all night tonight has been talking about how he has things to work on.

[bluedog]

Twenty-three. Young with upside. Hence: optimism.

I don't see the upside. His fastball probably isn't going to suddenly gain movement or velocity. I don't know of many pitchers with Tillman's track record who suddenly develop great command. So where is this upside going to come from?

[gallden]

He needs to go down to AAA but we have nobody to replace him in the rotation. The kid has a ton of talent. Just needs to learn to repeat his delivery' date=' take advantage of his frame and command the fastball.[/quote']

I haven't seen this ton of talent personally, you might make a case for his off speed but like the OP said doesn't locate that well. Its certainly not his velo or his ability to locate.

[bluedog]

I disagree I don't think you put him in a long role he needs consistent work. Palmer all night tonight has been talking about how he has things to work on.

And he can't work on things out of the bullpen? I think that pitching against major league hitters is more valuable then yet another stint in AAA where we know he can dominate. He needs to face major league hitters and work with major league coaches, but he needs to do so out of the pen, where he's not expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings per outing.

[The Wedge]

I don't see the upside. His fastball probably isn't going to suddenly gain movement or velocity. I don't know of many pitchers with Tillman's track record who suddenly develop great command. So where is this upside going to come from?

He's got enough to scrap by right now, and he's got the youth which means he has time to develop a bit more. A slight change in grip could end up giving him some movement on that fastball, and he's got time to work on his command. If he were 26, not so much.

You asked. I don't think most think he's gonna be the lights out guy anymore, but a serviceable back end of the rotation guy is still not bad. Heck, even a rock solid long reliever is useful.

[bluedog]

He's got enough to scrap by right now, and he's got the youth which means he has time to develop a bit more. A slight change in grip could end up giving him some movement on that fastball, and he's got time to work on his command. If he were 26, not so much.

You asked. I don't think most think he's gonna be the lights out guy anymore, but a serviceable back end of the rotation guy is still not bad. Heck, even a rock solid long reliever is useful.

Watching Koji simply dominate hitters with a below average fastball and absolutely brilliant command, I have to say I'm far more encouraged about the upside of guys who have great command and average stuff (Bergesen) than guys who have poor command (Tillman).

I like the idea of using Tillman as a long reliever, but I hate the idea of knowing your #5 starter is going to struggle to get through 5 innings every time out. That's just brutal on the bullpen over the long haul.

[eddie83]

And he can't work on things out of the bullpen? I think that pitching against major league hitters is more valuable then yet another stint in AAA where we know he can dominate. He needs to face major league hitters and work with major league coaches, but he needs to do so out of the pen, where he's not expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings per outing.

You work on things in the minors, that is what they are for. Getting inconsistent work out of the pen won't help.