SUN: O's search for relief

[Mackus]

Funny thing is, the Orioles are not figuring out that trading Hawkins doesn't mean you can't resign him.

It actually makes it easier. To resign him now, they'd have to do it before the deadline to offer arbitration or they won't be able to until May 1 (and they certainly aren't offering arbitration). If they move him, and his new team doesn't offer arb (likely), they'll have the entire offseason to sign him, although so will every other team out there, whereas the O's would have exclusive rights to him until they decline arbitration.

[bigbird]

I question that if Hawkins isn;t good enough for a floundering 4th place team why a contender would give squat for him? Maybe there's a reason they haven't.

[Sports Guy]

I question that if Hawkins isn;t good enough for a floundering 4th place team why a contender would give squat for him? Maybe there's a reason they haven't.

BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?

[Sports Guy]

all those trade were multi player deals. You need to look at the whole trade not just one piece. I'm sure we could have had Shealy for Penn and Hawkins.

In the 7th or 8th innings we need guys that have a WHIP around or less. Again we need pitching who can get players out, guys who can pitch and not just fire BBs on a straight line.

Are you telling me this is the equivalent to DBat and Affeldt? No chance. We could have probably had him for Birkins(he wasn't hurt yet) and Hawkins or Rlo.

[Mackus]

Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

Well, that is true, Hawkins likely helps us more than any of the other relievers we have (maybe Abreu or Hoey could come up and do as good of a job, but Hawkins is likely better than everyone in our pen right now other than Ray).

They are certainly wrong that winning games now matters at all, particularly the miniscule chance that having Hawkins over a replacement reliever will cost us more than one game over the course of the rest of the season.

[bigal21093]

I find it interesting that Ligtenberg, DeJean, Reed and Kline ALL pitched for NATIONAL LEAGUE teams in the years immediately before they came to Charm City, if memory serves (Ligtenberg spent 5 years with the Braves, DeJean with the Rockies/Brewers/Cardinals from '97-'03, Reed in the NL since '01, including '03-'04 with the Rockies, Kline in the NL since '97, with the Expos and Cardinals).

Now, in a sport with greater parity between the leagues, this would not be a huge issue. However, recent history has demonstrated the utter dominance of the AL in the World Series (NL teams haven't even won a game the past two Series; AL has won six of the last eight WS, though to be fair, most of these were the MFY's) and AL is 9-0-1 in the last 10 All-Star Games. Plus, interleague play has not been kind to the NL, especially this season. (I don't remember the exact numbers, but there was a glaring disparity between the leagues, and I think even the NL division leaders (NYM, STL, and LA) were only around .500 combined.)

Hawkins has been somewhat of an exception, pitching at least decently, if not great, to the tune of a 2.48 ERA at Camden Yards (with a disgusting, Ortiz-like 7.33 road ERA). Hawkins, of course, spent all but '04 and '05 in the American League, including stellar ERA's in 2002 (2.13) and 2003 (1.86!!) Given these numbers, it made all the sense in the world to obtain him this year. While it may not have worked out ideally, I personally submit that he's been much less awful than the four mentioned above.

Could it be that the front office should devote its search for an actual bullpen to:

(a) relievers currently in the AL (Speier, Riske, Romero, J. Kennedy, Harper, R. Mahay, etc.)

AND

(b) relievers currently in the NL with a history in the AL (Scott Williamson has come up as a name a lot, etc.)?

From my perspective, I'd much rather we get some of these less sexy names, rather than signing guys who had had some great years but were NL only (as we've learned, you're in trouble if a middle reliever is your big offseason signing (cough Steve Kline cough)). The purpose of a bullpen is to bridge games from your starter to your closer, and to keep your team in games when you're either mopping up after poor starts or in extra-innings; the best 'pens are those that DON'T have to make names for themselves.

What do you guys think about this AL-focused plan? Any other names you want to suggest based on these criteria?

[JTrea81]

One guy I would like to see the O's take a look at is Mike MacDonald who pitches for the Jays AA team. He is a Maine kid so I know a little bit about him and I actually work with his dad. This kid is a starter right now but was drafted to be a middle reliever. He's got a great sinking fastball (91-92 mph) and is a extreme groundball pitcher which would be perfect for OPACY. He doesn't get rattled much either - a true bulldog on the mound. It is his third season after leaving college so the Jays have to protect him or risk losing him in the Rule V. If they don't protect him I'd like to see us grab him and put him in the pen. Of course since he isn't on the 40 man a trade with the Jays would make sense as well offering Williams or Hawkins.

[Three Run Homer]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I'm not all that bothered by this article. The best thing about it is what it doesn't say: it doesn't say anything about the team counting on Todd Williams, Tim Byrdak, Russ Ortiz or Bruce Chen for next season. I'm reading between the lines a little, but the article makes a point of saying that the team is impressed with Britton and Birkins and wants to bring Hawkins back, and then says nothing about Williams and the rest. I'm hoping that means that the team has written them off...of course, I'd feel a little better about saying that if the team actually would RELEASE them, or at least bury them at the end of the bullpen bench come September 1.

I wouldn't pooh-pooh the idea of signing 1-2 good veterans for the bullpen next year. For sure, give Britton, Birkins, Burres, Hoey, Hale and Abreu an opportunity this September and next spring, but why not also go out and sign a proven setup man with an AL track record and good stuff, like JC Romero or Justin Speier?

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't pooh-pooh the idea of signing 1-2 good veterans for the bullpen next year. For sure, give Britton, Birkins, Burres, Hoey, Hale and Abreu an opportunity this September and next spring, but why not also go out and sign a proven setup man with an AL track record and good stuff, like JC Romero or Justin Speier?

Because JC Romero and Justin Speier are good bets to be the next Mike DeJean, Steve Kline, or Steve Reed. They were all proven vets, all brought in for "only" $3-4 million, and all wore out their welcome inside of six weeks.

If you're going to sign guys with a 50-50 chance of desperately needing to be released, why pay them millions?

Look at these two bits from a recent BP article by Nate Silver (parts bolded by me for emphasis):

Since 1985, when reliever usage patterns began to coalesce more or less into their present form, there have been 131 pitchers who posted a CEI of 50 or higher. Of those 131 seasons, 32 (24%) came from pitchers who had never recorded as many as 20 saves in any major league season previous. This is a pretty remarkable statistic: nearly one in four great closer seasons are recorded by pitchers that have no track record whatsoever as a major league closer.

Finally, regardless of their background, how do the breakout closers hold up as compared to the experienced closers? Here are the CEI progressions for the 32 breakout closers, and the control group of experienced closers who posted a CEI of at least 50 in year n.

Category n+1 n+2 n+3 Total

--------------------------------------------------------

New Closer 50.2 35.8 24.8 110.8

Experienced Closer 37.3 34.2 27.8 99.3

Not only do the breakout closers keep pace with their experienced counterparts--they actually outperform them (although not by a statistically significant margin). Part of this is because the breakout closers are younger as a group. Nevertheless, this qualifies as a statistical anomaly. Normally, a player who has demonstrated a skill (such as closing ballgames) on multiple occasions is much more likely to repeat that performance than someone who has demonstrated that skill just once. Not so here.

I'd bet this carries over to all relievers, not just closers. Experience means nothing. Breakout relievers are very likely to come from the ranks of the unknown, and the unknowns are just as likely to retain their value.

I've had enough of getting screwed by vastly underperforming relievers and having to pay $4M for that joy.

[hoosiers]

Good stuff, Drungo. Like bb and 3run, I am not bothered by the article at all. We clearly need bp help - as do plenty of other teams. I really don't care how we get it.

Saying that one needs "power" arms or arms that "get outs" is certainly a true in the bullpen, but it's nothing that 30+ other teams in baseball don't understand. Quality relievers don't grow on trees and the Reds just paid a steep price for two bp arms and even now there is interest in an average reliever like Hawkins.

A bp with Ray, Britton and Hoey has a decent future, but it is still a bit away and still two arms short of anything resembling a quality bp. I think September auditions for Abreau, Hale and Hoey will be very important in determining the shape of our bp next year.

[Cokeman]

But they are going after the wrong types of guys. They want to bring back Hawkins? Are you serious?

They need POWER ARMS!!! When are they going to figure this out?

It sounds to me that they will sign more of the same guys that they have signed the last few years.

They want guys who have "done it before"....Nevermind that doing it before was 5-10 years ago. At least they did it! Give me a break.

And btw, this has NOTHING to do with PA. This is the FO. Piss poor!!!!!

Yes, we need power arms...but we need power arms with a brain. Otherwise, we will just have Jorge Julio again.

[bigbird]

BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?[/QUOTE]

Because I think they're right. I just don;t think you can be successful by throwing a team full of minor league unprovens out there night after night. a couple , yes but not 5 or 6. You needs some stability in the pen and youth doesn't get yout that. We need two solid veteran arms in the pen. By solid I'm not talking Brower or Dronesburg either.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, we need power arms...but we need power arms with a brain. Otherwise, we will just have Jorge Julio again.

Sign Scott Williamson. Trade for Wuertz or Valverde.

Sign Rhodes.

Fill in with Hoey, Britton and Ray.

7th guy comes out of Rakers/Birkins/Abreu/non roster invitee/Parrish(if healthy...he would be the preference).

Now that is a power BP.

[Mackus]

BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?[/QUOTE]

Because I think they're right. I just don;t think you can be successful by throwing a team full of minor league unprovens out there night after night. a couple , yes but not 5 or 6. You needs some stability in the pen and youth doesn't get yout that. We need two solid veteran arms in the pen. By solid I'm not talking Brower or Dronesburg either.

Brower isn't a great example, but Dejean, Kline, and Reed were all considered solid relievers at the time we brought them in.

I really don't think there is any such thing as a solid reliever. There are elite relievers (not just closers) and suspects. Any veteran we bring in this offseason is likely to be a suspect, as there aren't any guys I would consider elite or very good available on the market - perhaps we could work out a trade for someone.

I'd rather find 3-5 minor league guys and hope one of them succeeds than sign one "solid" guy like Dejean, Kline, or Reed for $1.5M. The minor league guys have just as good of a chance of being a successful reliever as the "solid" guys do.

[Sports Guy]

BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?[/QUOTE]

Because I think they're right. I just don;t think you can be successful by throwing a team full of minor league unprovens out there night after night. a couple , yes but not 5 or 6. You needs some stability in the pen and youth doesn't get yout that. We need two solid veteran arms in the pen. By solid I'm not talking Brower or Dronesburg either.

I have no problem signing and/or trading for guys, as my above post says. But you need to trade and sign the right type of guys and the Orioles haven't dont that.