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Orioles need Alonso, Cinci needs Guthrie - let's make a deal


JTrea81

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A's have the starter and closer also. Both are probalby more valuable then our starter and closer.

Agreed...But if Oak is trade Gio, they will require a ton in return.

Again, this will come back to what is Cinci willing to give up.

Let's say the Orioles would trade JJ and Guthrie for Wood, Boxberger and Alonso. In that package, Cinci misses nothing they give up because of what else they have and what else they get back.

If they deal for Gio and Bailey, they are giving up those players plus 2 of their top 5 prospects...Something along those lines.

Now, how much better are they will Gio and Bailey vs JJ and Guthrie to justify giving up those top prospects that could help them soon?

Perhaps they feel that they are much better and worth making that trade. If they do, then the Orioles can't match what they are giving up. I agree with that.

But what is Cinci willing to give up? This article talks about them using ALONSO to get that pitcher they need. He alone isn't getting that TOR starter.

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Agreed...But if Oak is trade Gio, they will require a ton in return.

Again, this will come back to what is Cinci willing to give up.

Let's say the Orioles would trade JJ and Guthrie for Wood, Boxberger and Alonso. In that package, Cinci misses nothing they give up because of what else they have and what else they get back.

If they deal for Gio and Bailey, they are giving up those players plus 2 of their top 5 prospects...Something along those lines.

Now, how much better are they will Gio and Bailey vs JJ and Guthrie to justify giving up those top prospects that could help them soon?

Perhaps they feel that they are much better and worth making that trade. If they do, then the Orioles can't match what they are giving up. I agree with that.

But what is Cinci willing to give up? This article talks about them using ALONSO to get that pitcher they need. He alone isn't getting that TOR starter.

Completely agree with all of that SG.

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I think you are expecting more than DD will do. He appears to be a fringe trader until he feels he is in contention. I don't think he will be trading any core players or key pitchers unless he is getting better pitching in return.
After 3 weeks on the job, I'd be hesitant to say he appears to be anything yet.
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This is not his first 3 weeks as a GM. Look at what he did in Boston.
Fringe trader?

"Duquette served as farm director for the Expos from 1987-91 and their general manager from 1991-94, when he was hired to be Boston's GM. He traded for pitcher Pedro Martinez twice, first when he was with Montreal and again when he was with Boston. While in Boston, he acquired Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in a trade with Seattle. As Red Sox GM, Duquette signed Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, and despite being dismissed under Boston's new ownership, he helped lay the groundwork for the club that won the World Series in 2004." http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20111108&content_id=25933002&vkey=news_bal&c_id=bal

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  • 4 weeks later...
Has there been any indication that this trade is being - or has ever been - considered by actual Orioles people?

No, but when are trades ever announced by ownership/leadership as in the works before they are made? Teams ask and bring up players all of the time. It is not hard to find logical partners for fans or teams, but what a given team are being offered or requesting may squash the trade. Alonso just got traded so in my mind he is off limits. That doesn't mean that DD shouldn't make the call, but we have no way of knowing if he did or not.

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Cincy wins "value"; dealt from redundancies, so I think it ends up an okay deal for both, so long as Latos remains healthy.

Perhaps when looking at the 5 players involved in the trade but when you consider the opportunity cost of what Cincy might have been able to obtain in other deals -- especially if dealt separately -- I suspect they could have done much better. Of course, we'll never know.

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Perhaps when looking at the 5 players involved in the trade but when you consider the opportunity cost of what Cincy might have been able to obtain in other deals -- especially if dealt separately -- I suspect they could have done much better. Of course, we'll never know.

Oops. Looking at the quote, I meant Padres win "value". They got the most overall value if you break it down into future WAR, or money saved, or whatever.

I discussed this trade at length with an MLB evaluator last night at dinner. We came down on both sides and flipped flopped a couple of times. Ultimately, it comes down to how Latos performs. Four cost controlled years of a front-end starter is worth quite a bit, and if Grandal moves out from behind the plate (a real possibility) then how much is Cincy ultimately giving-up? It's a fair amount in "value", but how many legit young front-end pre-arb starters are available?

Cincy is considering whether or not they can afford to keep Votto, long term. They hope Latos will mean that their rotation will be almost entirely inexpensive, and money can be freed up to potentially dump into Votto. It's a question of evaluation. And the key to deal is probably that San Diego is down some on Latos because of some make-up-related dust ups, a down year last year and potential shoulder issues. Cincy has no use for Alonso or Grandal, and likely views Boxberger as an 8th-inning guy.

It's a fair point to say "Cincy could have gotten more for that collection", but it's hypothetical and requires you find a team that needs some combonation of these players. Even if you can chop up the package and get back two players, you aren't getting the cost controlled upside you see with Latos.

It's the only type of package that would make sense in order for the Padres to give up a cheap and talented arm like Latos. Likewise, Cincy only considers giving up this package and probably "overpaying" because these pieces mean very little to them at this point. So, you either grab Latos now, or hope that something else comes along that makes equivalent sense. The risk, of course, is Mesoraco performs well and all of baseball is 100% sure that you are forced to trade Alonso and Grandal, and you lose what little bit of leverage you might have previously had. Wrose, maybe Alonso flops next year while trying to acclamate to MLB or Grandal struggles in the Minors. Now your assets are losing value and the opportunity to even do something like overpay for Latos is gone.

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