Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus compiles top ten worst draft picks

[DrShorebird]

We have been discussing our recent #1 draft picks recently. According to the Baltimore Sun, Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus compiled his list of the top ten worst draft picks. Some of our "favorites" (four Orioles) are in his top ten.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-sportsblitz-orioles-picks0601,0,7686387.story

[clapdiddy]

I'll play...

Chris Smith

Mike Paradis

Billy Rowell

Beau Hale

[NewMarketSean]

I'll play...

Chris Smith

Mike Paradis

Billy Rowell

Beau Hale

2 for 4.

Townsend, Smith, Rowell and Hobgood.

[Frobby]

Seems kind of arbitrary to me. I can't read the article, so who else is on the list? Here are some top 10 picks who never made it to the majors (I am omitting HS guys from 2007 onward and college guys from 2008 onward, because it is too soon to say they won't make it).

2001 -- Josh Karp (#6) and Colt Griffin (#9) never made the majors, in addition to our Chris Smith (#7).

2002 -- Chris Gruler (#3) and Clint Evers (#5) never made the majors.

2003 -- Kyle Sleeth (#3), Chris Lubanski (#5) and Ryan Harvey (#6) never made the majors.

2004 -- Matt Bush (#1) never made the majors, in addition to our Wade Townsend.

2005 -- Wade Townsend picked again.

2006 -- Billy Rowell (#9) never made the majors.

2007 -- Casey Weathers (#8), who was a collegian, never made the majors.

[Ooooooohhhh!!!!]

I can't read the article, so who else is on the list?

1. Matt Bush

2. Wade Townsend

3. Colt Griffin

4. Chris Smith

5. Kyle Sleeth

6. Billy Rowell

7. Kyle Skipworth

8. Matt Hobgood

9. Casey Weathers

10. Chris Lubanski

[MurphDogg]

Seems kind of arbitrary to me. I can't read the article, so who else is on the list? Here are some top 10 picks who never made it to the majors (I am omitting HS guys from 2007 onward and college guys from 2008 onward, because it is too soon to say they won't make it).

2001 -- Josh Karp (#6) and Colt Griffin (#9) never made the majors, in addition to our Chris Smith (#7).

2002 -- Chris Gruler (#3) and Clint Evers (#5) never made the majors.

2003 -- Kyle Sleeth (#3), Chris Lubanski (#5) and Ryan Harvey (#6) never made the majors.

2004 -- Matt Bush (#1) never made the majors, in addition to our Wade Townsend.

2005 -- Wade Townsend picked again.

2006 -- Billy Rowell (#9) never made the majors.

2007 -- Casey Weathers (#8), who was a collegian, never made the majors.

Not to mention the guys with negative WAR in the majors

2001 -- Dewon Brazelton (-4.0 WAR) (#3) and John Van Benschoten (-4.9 WAR) (#8) .

2002 -- Bryan Bullington (-0.4 WAR) (#1) and Scott Moore (-1.0 WAR) (#8).

2003 -- Delmon Young (fractionally under 0 WAR) (#1).

There are additional players in the following years but some may get their WAR in the positive (as might Delmon Young) including Jeff Clement, Chris Nelson, Thomas Diamond and Andrew Miller. It's hard to say that having a negative WAR in the majors is more valuable than not making the majors at all. Especially in the cases of Brazelton and Van Benschoten.

[JohnD]

Yikes, I can't quibble too much with the list, but Hobgood? Really?! It's a bit early for that one. Especially when there are enough other names out there.

[SilentJames]

Yikes, I can't quibble too much with the list, but Hobgood? Really?! It's a bit early for that one. Especially when there are enough other names out there.

I would quibble with Rowell. I mean he busted, but was he a "bad PICK". At the time he was considered one of the best young hitters in the draft. If not THE best young hitter in the draft. I mean if a good pick busts does that make it a bad decision?

[Tony-OH]

I would quibble with Rowell. I mean he busted, but was he a "bad PICK". At the time he was considered one of the best young hitters in the draft. If not THE best young hitter in the draft. I mean if a good pick busts does that make it a bad decision?

He was chosen over Tim Lincecum. He can't field, and his swing has more holes in it than swiss cheese. He will never get out of AA when it comes to getting meaningful at bats. I remember a scout from another organization that I talked to after the draft. He had seen Rowell his entire high school career and he said something to the effect that Rowell will "either be an All-star or never get out of AA." In other words, he's got great tools but something is amiss with his game. He did not seem think he should have picked as high as he did because there were some warning signs. Guess he was right about the second part.

Regardless, Rowell was absolutely a bad pick. I do agree with John though that it's too early for the Hobgood pick to be on the list. It doesn't look good right now but there is still time and other names available.

[ccbird]

Having a player drafted in '09 on the list is a joke.

[Frobby]

He was chosen over Tim Lincecum. He can't field, and his swing has more holes in it than swiss cheese. He will never get out of AA when it comes to getting meaningful at bats. I remember a scout from another organization that I talked to after the draft. He had seen Rowell his entire high school career and he said something to the effect that Rowell will "either be an All-star or never get out of AA." In other words, he's got great tools but something is amiss with his game. He did not seem think he should have picked as high as he did because there were some warning signs.

And yet, he was the OH and BA #1 prospect in 2006 after playing in Bluefield and Aberdeen, and OH #2 and BA #5 in 2007 after playing at Delmarva.

By the way, the links to the old lists on the Farm System page aren't working.

[utvolzac]

Having a player drafted in '09 on the list is a joke.

I disagree. The Hobgood pick is awful regardless of whether he makes it it the majors.

No reason at all to reach at #5 for a player that was regarded as a fringe 1st rounder/2nd rounder.

The fact that we passed over multiple pitchers who are either contributing to major league teams or top 100 prospects, is reason enough for it to be a horrible pick.

I don't remember too many people on here who were happy with the selection in '09.

[ShaneDawg85]

I don't think it's possible for anybody to be a worse pick than Chris Smith. At least Rowell showed some potential to start his minor league career, and has at least GOTTEN to AA. Chris Smith on the other hand never even made it higher than Delmarva. 52.2 IP and 2 wins in 4 seasons. There's no excusing that.

Frankly though he might have had some luck had they kept him on offense, because in his one stint in Aberdeen, in an admittedly small sample size, he had a real good slash line:

2 HR, 3 RBI, .368 AVG, 1.268 OPS

[ccbird]

I disagree. The Hobgood pick is awful regardless of whether he makes it it the majors.

No reason at all to reach at #5 for a player that was regarded as a fringe 1st rounder/2nd rounder.

The fact that we passed over multiple pitchers who are either contributing to major league teams or top 100 prospects, is reason enough for it to be a horrible pick.

I don't remember too many people on here who were happy with the selection in '09.

He was considered a mid to late 1st round pick and his stock was on the rise when we drafted him. He absolutely would have been drafted in the 1st round had we passed. That's irrelevant anyway. It hasn't even been two years since he was drafted. He's had 1 full season. I don't care if we reached for a 5th round talent in the 1st round. That player deserves more than one year to prove he doesn't belong on a list of the biggest draft busts of the last decade.

[Frobby]

I disagree. The Hobgood pick is awful regardless of whether he makes it it the majors.

No reason at all to reach at #5 for a player that was regarded as a fringe 1st rounder/2nd rounder.

The fact that we passed over multiple pitchers who are either contributing to major league teams or top 100 prospects, is reason enough for it to be a horrible pick.

I don't remember too many people on here who were happy with the selection in '09.

I don't think the analysis is this simple. First of all, you are exaggerating when you say Hobgood was considered a "fringe 1st rounder/2nd rounder." More like a mid-to-late first rounder. Goldstein himself had him ranked 23rd. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9017 And it's not like he threw up all over the pick when the Orioles made it, either. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9037 Callis had Hobgood going 11th. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2009/268312.html

Second, until Hobgood has failed to reach the majors, and several of the other high school arms who were ranked ahead of him have made it to the majors, I think it is too early to say it's a terrible pick. There's no requirement that Joe Jordan has to agree with some "consensus" as to who the best prospects are. I recall the White Sox top scout saying he thought the Orioles had made a great pick with Hobgood.

If I was certain that Hobgood's performance since we drafted him was unrelated to his shoulder problem, which wasn't apparent at draft time, I'd be quicker to condemn this pick. Eventually, this may belong in the "Top 10" but it is too soon to know.