Orioles to Spend This Winter?

[Stotle]

I think Fielder ends up in CHicago or Texas.

[JTrea81]

Let MacPhail walk, hire a GM who actually has the courage to spend Peter Angelos' money, knows how to recruit premium FA talent and is aggressive in doing so and then maybe you can talk about luring Fielder away from his likely destination of Washington.

MacPhail will never sign Prince Fielder but he won't be shy to string fans along like he will.

[Bradysburns]

Somehow I think they will offer 3-4 million per season less than the competition and say they made a competative offer.

I think they'll probably do this - and they'll really *believe* they made a competitive offer. The problem is, they'll conclude, baseball is crazy and someone always bids way over value. That's why we keep losing out on guys like Konerko and Tah-Cher-Ah. Those crazy, kooky OTHER TEAMS! They're the problem, you see.

[Stotle]

I think Fielder ends up in CHicago or Texas.

SS Andrus

2B Kinsler

CF Hamilton

RF Cruz

1B Fielder

3B Beltre

DH Young

LF Borbon

C Napoli/Teagarden

Holy hell that is a killer lineup...

[Roll Tide]

I think they'll probably do this - and they'll really *believe* they made a competitive offer. The problem is, they'll conclude, baseball is crazy and someone always bids way over value. That's why we keep losing out on guys like Konerko and Tah-Cher-Ah. Those crazy, kooky OTHER TEAMS! They're the problem, you see.

Yep ...There will always be someone to blame other than our beloved O's.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I saw that on HardballTalk and KNEW it would bring a fantastic reaction at the Hangout :laughlol:

[Bradysburns]

Cross off the Nationals unless they are going to move LaRoche who was signed to a 3 year deal.

Cross of the Angels unless they both deal Morales and bury Trumbo in the minors.

Going through the leagues, there are only 5 teams that could be in a position to buy high. The other teams:

1. Already committed financially to a 1B

2. Have a young 1B stud they are grooming.

3. Don't have the money to spend.

(*note: this assumes Pujols is also on the free agent market).

Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles

Twins, White sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians

Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners

Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nationals

Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, Astros

Giants, Rockies, Padres Dodgers, Diamondbacks

This is assuming the Blue Jays and Rangers have money. If they decide not to spend, this could be 3 teams in a 2 horse race for Pujols and Fielder.

Great analysis! Thanks for doing the hard work. Of course, there's the specter of unforeseen stuff happening. Injuries, trades, wash-outs among the prospects, etc. I'm guessing that the market for perhaps the greatest hitting 1B in history won't unfold according to this kind of deterministic scenario. If teams sense that Pujols could go to a weak sister for less than full market value, things will start shaking up real fast... Suddenly "can't miss" prospects might "need a few more years of seasoning." Or that franchise first basemen could suddenly get moved to DH, or traded, etc.

In the end, I fear it won't come down to the fantasy scenario of "we get Pujols or Fielder, because nobody else really needs a first baseman." The players are so elite that they'll shift the playing field... and the Orioles likely will get left out in the cold once again. IMO things will have to go extremely right for us to have a chance at one of these two guys. We'll certainly have to go over .500 this season and finish strong, for starters.

[JTrea81]

SS Andrus

2B Kinsler

CF Hamilton

RF Cruz

1B Fielder

3B Beltre

DH Young

LF Borbon

C Napoli/Teagarden

Holy hell that is a killer lineup...

Zimmerman

Fielder

Werth

Harper

Talk about a nasty middle of the lineup...

[BaltimoreTerp]

Cross off the Nationals unless they are going to move LaRoche who was signed to a 3 year deal.

Cross of the Angels unless they both deal Morales and bury Trumbo in the minors.

Going through the leagues, there are only 5 teams that could be in a position to buy high. The other teams:

1. Already committed financially to a 1B

2. Have a young 1B stud they are grooming.

3. Don't have the money to spend.

(*note: this assumes Pujols is also on the free agent market).

Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles

Twins, White sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians

Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners

Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nationals

Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, Astros

Giants, Rockies, Padres Dodgers, Diamondbacks

This is assuming the Blue Jays and Rangers have money. If they decide not to spend, this could be 3 teams in a 2 horse race for Pujols and Fielder.

Nice work. The Rangers will probably have the money, though. The new ownership combined with a gigantic TV deal gives them basically whatever they need. The Jays might not, depending on what Rogers wants to give them.

So I think its more likely a four-team race. I also think it could easily be won by the Cubs and Cardinals due to the Pujols hometown connection and the Ricketts money/Jim Hendry combo paying Fielder to move down the Lake.

[JTrea81]

2. The Nationals (but can they really afford another Werth-esque contract?)

The Lerners are loaded and have no problem negotiating with Boras directly. Two keys which will make them the favorite for Prince.

I've recently heard them referred to as the Yankees of the NL for the money they are willing to spend on their club.

And LaRoche is no roadblock. He's only got a two year deal from the Nats with a team option.

[ChaosLex]

I've recently heard them referred to as the Yankees of the NL for the money they are willing to spend on their club.

If only it'd change their position in the standings. :wedge:

[El Gordo]

I don't think they'll go to a seventh year with Fielder, either.

But 5/105 or 6/125 wouldn't really surprise me.

Prince turned 27 in May, so we'd have him from 28-32 or 28-33, depending on the length of the deal.

If that's what it will take they will. But I think it will take more than that. Boras is saying $200 M. He won't get that but he'll get more than 150M, IMO.

[clapdiddy]

The Lerners are loaded and have no problem negotiating with Boras directly. Two keys which will make them the favorite for Prince.

I've recently heard them referred to as the Yankees of the NL for the money they are willing to spend on their club.

And LaRoche is no roadblock. He's only got a two year deal from the Nats with a team option.

Cool! Then maybe we could trade for LaRoche! Then he wouldn't have a choice about coming here.

[JTrea81]

If only it'd change their position in the standings. :wedge:

It will. Remember Zimmerman and Strasburg are hurt and Harper hasn't arrived. Once that changes and if they add a bat like Fielder, the Nats are going to be a threat to win the NL East.

[allstar1579]

It will. Remember Zimmerman and Strasburg are hurt and Harper hasn't arrived. Once that changes and if they add a bat like Fielder, the Nats are going to be a threat to win the NL East.

Next year they will be ready to make some noise. I see them being buyers in FA, especially for another pitcher to pair with JZimm and Stras, and a CF/leadoff guy.